Lyon – Celta Vigo Tip Europa League, Round of 16, second leg on Thursday, 19.03.26 at 18:45 CET
A Lyon Celta Vigo bet on a draw & under 4.5 goals, as I have in mind at odds of currently 3.40 at Bet-at-home, sounds like a risk at first, but soberly considered it is possibly the most reasonable 1X2 bet ever.
There is a surprising amount to suggest that both teams – as in the first leg – cannot agree on a winner. The difference in the xG value in the previous week was a microscopic 0.02, which is why the 1:1 could not have been more in line with performance.
I don’t dare to ascribe the role of favourites to Olympique anyway. Because the once so dominant “Gones” are now treading water. Each of their last three competitive games has ended in a draw, although they should have beaten teams like Le Havre or Paris FC.
Lyon vs Celta Vigo AI predictions:
While I can’t commit to a winner at all, our Lyon Celta Vigo AI prediction pushes me more towards the French. Victory Lyon at odds of around 2.02 is his first recommendation.
Basically, the value here is too thin for me – especially since Remi Himbert, who seriously injured his ankle in the first leg, will very likely be missing in the second leg.
What speaks in favor of this pick, however, is that two key players, namely Borja Iglesias and Oscar Mingueza, will each have to take a break due to suspension. In the end, however, I prefer to stick to my intended draw bet.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Lyon |
Draw |
Win Celta Vigo |
| 48.3% |
27.2% |
24.5% |
Personally, I can do much more with a 1:1 result bet when it comes to the pure relationship between risk and return. Because the odds of 6.50 traded by most sports betting providers must be rated as extremely generous.
After all, both clubs have achieved exactly this result in two of their last three competitive games.
1st goal: Endrick is available at odds of around 4.55 – a pick that also appeals to me. The Real Madrid loanee has already scored in the first leg and has already scored three goals against the Galicians in his very young career.
What you need to know about Lyon vs. Celta Vigo betting
- Everything is open after the first leg: After the 1-1 draw at the Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, both teams go into the second leg at the Groupama Stadium with equal chances, with Lyon having the right to play at home as the group winners of the league stage.
- Defensive discipline at Lyon: At home, Lyon tend to bring the result of the first half over time; in six of the last seven UEL home games, the half-time result has been identical to the final score.
- Goal-hungry opponents: Both sides are currently on display, with both teams scoring in five of Lyon’s last six games and seven of Celta’s last nine.
- Celta’s away attack: The guests from Vigo play extremely entertaining away from home in the Europa League; four of their five UEL away games so far this season have ended with more than 2.5 goals, indicating another attacking duel.
