La Liga, Wednesday, 15.05.2024
Three matchdays are still open in the Primera Division, or as they say at Atletico Madrid: If we survive three matchdays, we will at least have qualified for the Champions League.
The Colchoneros did not play for the title in 2023/24, partly due to their difficulties away from home. Nevertheless, they are the clear favorites for the next away game, but why? I’ll tell you that and my reasons for the “Under 2.5 goals” bet in my Getafe Atletico Madrid betting tip!
20 points behind city rivals Real? Atletico Madrid don’t like to hear that! This season has not been bad, but with 22 wins, four draws and nine defeats, they are not among the very best.
The series is simply lacking, only once have they managed more than three successes in a row. Nevertheless, the Colchoneros are currently in just such a phase, with three wins in a row
After the 3:1 win against Athletic Bilbao, two very close victories were recorded. The first was a 1-0 win in Mallorca, followed by the same result against Celta Vigo. It was not the first time that Atletico had managed to secure points with very close results.
In the entire season, only three matches were won by a margin of more than two goals, and twelve times the results were as close as possible
The problem with Atletico not finishing higher up the table: several slip-ups against underdogs. Defeats against Alaves, Cadiz or Sevilla, draws against Almeria or Getafe – games like these cannot be conceded for the title.
This is only the third time this season that Atletico have managed to keep two clean sheets in a row. And that’s despite the fact that we’re used to the Colchoneros being a concrete force at the back
2023/24 that wasn’t always the case, especially when the team went on the road. At home, Atletico are an absolute power with 16 wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring 41:18 goals.
Away from home, however, I can’t see such statistics far and wide. Only six of 17 games have ended victoriously, plus three draws and EIGHT defeats
32 goals scored, 21 conceded, worse in both statistics. In September, Atletico achieved two consecutive away wins for the first and so far only time, a bad omen after the 1-0 defeat in Mallorca?
Goalscorer Alvaro Morata has only scored once since the end of January, when he was among the scorers in the 3-3 draw against Getafe in the first half of the season. Atletico conceded a last-second equalizer here, when Getafe are actually one of their absolute favourite opponents.
The Madrilenians are unbeaten in 24 games, 19 of which they have won. The 3-3 draw was also so curious because there have only been five goals conceded in that period, and that includes these three!
Three 0-0 draws, eight wins, one goal conceded in total? No question, the last direct duels away from home against Getafe followed a clear line! Perhaps Happybet have also taken this history into account
The odds are clear, Atletico are ahead with average odds of 1.80 to 4.60. Getafe can go into the match absolutely liberated, the small derby can no longer do any damage.
The Azulones are tenth, having won only two of their last eleven games. This is only the second time the team have lost twice in a row, but it would be a first if they were to suffer a third defeat on Wednesday
0:2 against Bilbao and 0:1 against Cadiz, two games in a row without a goal for the first time since the start of the season. Seven of the last eight matches have contained fewer than 2.5 goals, and Getafe are not among the best anyway with a total of 41.
A home record (2-8-8 away) is definitely an advantage. With eight wins and five draws, they have only lost four times, but the four defeats were without scoring a goal of their own.
13 of the 17 home games were won by a maximum of two goals, but a 3-2 win can still happen. With only one of the last five matches having been won, the fans are once again hoping for a three-goal win
Atletico Madrid’s “okay season” is slowly coming to an end, with unsatisfactory results away from home making a better position impossible. My analysis quickly showed what big problems the team has away from home.
Now it’s off to Getafe, so after a short bus journey Atletico will face a team that has only lost four times at home. The home side are not usually known for their attacking power and, despite the 3-3 draw in the first leg, they hardly ever score against the Colchoneros.
All in all, I’m expecting a game in which there will be no real sporting significance and much of the action will take place in midfield. My prediction is therefore logical:
The 2.5 goals will not be scored!
