Dortmund – Bayern Tip Franz Beckenbauer Supercup on Saturday, 22.08.2026 at 20:30 CET
Finally the ball is rolling again! At the start of the new season, there is a cracker coming up, in which I support you with my Dortmund Bayern tip. In the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup, the two biggest German clubs will fight for the first title of the 2026/27 season.
The Munich team are simply the measure of all things, but BVB are always good for a goal at home, which makes this bet very attractive at the same time.
Incidentally, history strengthens me in my choice. In four of the last five direct duels, both teams have scored. The Supercup itself is also often high-scoring: In five of the last six editions, there have been goals to celebrate on both sides. So there is a lot to be said for a spectacle!
It is the first competitive game of the season for both teams, as their respective first-round matches in the DFB Cup have been postponed to September. So the question now is who will prevail at Signal Iduna Park and lift the first trophy of the season.
Dortmund are certainly going into this game with a broad chest after the recent victory against Arsenal in the Emirates Cup and high investments in the transfer market. The interest on the part of football fans in a Dortmund Bayern tip is also huge.
After all, the DFL has already announced that the final, which was recently renamed the “Franz Beckenbauer Supercup”, is completely sold out. So we can expect an electrifying atmosphere in front of a full house.
BVB – Bayern Prediction & Betting
If you like it “classic”, the win bet on Bayern is also worth considering. The Dortmund Bayern odds here are around 1.61. Munich’s dominance is overwhelming anyway: 12 of the last 16 direct duels have gone to the record champions. That’s a clear statement.
For the more risk-averse among you, on the other hand, the player bet Harry Kane: 2+ goals could be interesting. The Englishman has a strong record against BVB and is considered by the bookmakers to be the most likely double goalscorer of the game with odds of around 3.70.
Dortmund – Bayern: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool takes an analytical look at the game and sees Bayern as having a clear advantage. The predicted probability of victory for the Munich team is a whopping 57.2%, while Dortmund only comes to 19.2%. Last but not least, a draw is valued at 22.8%.
Our artificial betting intelligence also has a clear expectation when it comes to “goals”. With a predicted total value of 3.87 xG goals, the tool firmly expects a goal-rich evening. Bayern is estimated at 2.51 goals, BVB still has 1.36 goals.
This AI forecast coincides with the assessment of the bookmakers. The low win rate of around 1.62 for FC Bayern reflects almost perfectly the high probability calculated by the tool. So the market and the data agree on this: Bavaria is the favorite.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Dortmund |
Draw |
Victory Bavaria |
| 19.2% |
22.6% |
58.2% |
The betting markets hardly doubt the entertainment value of this encounter. The Both Score option is valued at very low odds of 1.35, which underlines the expectation of goals on both sides. A real offensive spectacle seems to be imminent.
From the top-class line-up of both teams, the aforementioned Harry Kane stands out as the darling of the bookmakers.
After all, the English top striker is credited with the highest probability of scoring by far with an odd of only 1.57. This is also a natural consequence of his historic performances in the 2025/26 season.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Bayern
Let’s now take a look at the classic 1X2 markets together. As already indicated, the Dortmund Bayern betting odds show a clear tendency.
For a home win for Dortmund, there is a juicy outsider odds of about 4.80. Despite the home advantage at Signal Iduna Park, the experts see the “Black and Yellows” in the role of the clear challenger against the reigning double winners.
A draw after 90 minutes seems more likely to the bookmakers than a victory for BVB, but much less likely than a success for Bayern. The odds for a stalemate are therefore in the range of 4.40, which can also be attractive!
In summary, it can be said that the betting market firmly expects a victory for the record champion. However, Dortmund’s home advantage and ambitions should not be underestimated at any time.
Dortmund vs Bayern Match Analysis:
In the Supercup, two of the three best offenses of the last Bundesliga season meet. While Dortmund scored 70 league goals, the German record champions scored an incredible 122 goals. The offensive power of both teams is therefore undisputed.
Interestingly, the defensive performance of both teams was almost identical. BVB even conceded two fewer goals than the eventual champions over the entire 2025/26 season. So not only strong attacking lines, but also solid defensive lines meet.
A real home advantage has rarely been found in the history of the Supercup. In the 19 games that did not take place on neutral ground, the home team was only able to win the cup eight times. The home advantage is therefore no guarantee for victory.
According to my Dortmund Bayern prediction, the duel promises to be an offensive spectacle. Since both teams also revealed defensive weaknesses in the test matches, it should not be 0-0 for long. There will probably be deals every minute!
Incidentally, it is already the tenth time that the two rivals have faced each other in this competition. The record is very close: Bayern have won five duels, BVB have four wins and have the chance to equalise this year.
However, the dominance of the Munich team across all competitions cannot be denied. They have won eleven of the last 15 competitive games.
Borussia Dortmund Form Check
BVB have once again finished runners-up in the 2025/26 season, but go into the new season with a lot of self-confidence after high transfer spending in the summer. They finally want to give Bayern a serious title fight again and attack.
The recent 3-2 win in the friendly against Arsenal is an impressive testament to the potential of this team. Niko Kovac’s team seems ready for the start of the season and wants to make an exclamation mark right away.
Of course, the home right plays into Dortmund’s hands. After all, the Black and Yellows have only lost three competitive games at home in the 2026 calendar year. One of them, however, was a narrow 3-2 defeat against Bayern in February.
In the past Bundesliga season, BVB collected nine points at home and scored ten more goals than in away games. The home strength is a decisive factor for Dortmund, which they will also build on in the Supercup.
The strength in the first half is particularly striking. In a fictitious table that only takes into account the first 45 minutes, Dortmund were even ahead of Bayern in first place last season. They often start like the fire brigade.
However, there are personnel concerns. With Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck, two important defensive pillars are missing due to injury. Compensating for these absences will be a big challenge for the team to be defensively stable.
Bayern Form Check
FC Bayern also goes into the 2026/27 season as the big favourites. After winning the double last season, the confidence in their own strength among coach Vincent Kompany’s team is unbroken and greater than ever before!
Although the neurological problems of exceptional player Jamal Musiala are currently causing the club some problems, the squad is broad and strong enough to cope with such setbacks. The quality continues to be enormously high.
By the way: The bet “Bayern over 2.5 goals” would have been successful in five of the last eight competitive games of the previous season. This is a clear indication of how well the Munich attack worked until the end of the season and wants to continue it seamlessly.
By the way, the offense seems to have gotten even better in the summer. In the test matches, Bayern scored an impressive 4.50 goals per game on average. So the attacking machinery is already running at full speed and is ready for the start of the season.
Summer signing Ismael Saibari will make his debut for Bayern in attacking midfield. The Moroccan scored 15 goals in 27 appearances in this role at PSV Eindhoven last season and is expected to provide even more of a goal threat.
Despite the absences of Bryan Zaragoza, Konrad Laimer and Jamal Musiala, the squad depth of the record champions remains enormous. FC Bayern have enough quality to overcome these personnel worries against Borussia and bring a powerful eleven onto the pitch.
