Italy Albania betting tip & the best odds for the 1st match of Group B
The defending champions can’t wait to start the tournament this Saturday. Their opponents are the undefeated fourth-placed team in “Group of Death” B. But do the Balkan footballers really have no chance?
In my Italy Albania tip, I reckon that the “Squadra Azzurra” will have to toil mightily. The sudden absence of Scalvini in defense and the recent international results in June do not bode well.
Nevertheless, the Italians should be able to crush their opponents at the end of a long and tough struggle. In my Italy Albania prediction, I outline for you which specific European Championship bets I have in mind.
By the way: Italy will try to become only the second team in the history of the European Championship to win the title for the second time in a row – after Spain (2008, 2012).
Albania are about to take part in only their second major international tournament.
At the 2016 European Championship, the team was eliminated in the group stage and finished third behind France and Switzerland.
Consequently, there is no precedent for a surprise on the big stage, which is of course what fans are secretly hoping for from their national team in Germany this summer.
But as we all know, hope dies last and hindsight always makes us all smarter.
However, based on all the information available to me, it would be simply foolhardy to place an Italy Albania bet with a verified European Championship betting provider that actually involves the Balkan footballers beating the reigning European champions
The Italy – Albania prediction of the bookmakers
I agree with the European Championship bookmakers that the “Azzurri” are to be favored, but the general Italy odds of 1.40 on average deny me the opportunity to place a profitable value bet.
The Italy Albania odds for a draw or an away win, on the other hand, with values of 4.60 and 8.00 on average, are clearly rejected from the outset, as I rate the respective probability of occurrence of these events as simply too low.
Nonetheless, some might well make the not entirely absurd assumption that at least the odds of 5 for a points split are within an acceptable range for risk-taking sports betting fans…
Italy vs Albania odds: Where are the highest Italy vs Albania odds?
The highest Italy Albania odds can be found at the official European Championship sponsor Betano, which offers you an absolute top offer for a victory of the “Azzurri” with values of approx. 1.42.
However, I would definitely encourage you to take advantage of the bookmaker’s offer and select one or two additional conditions.
This would raise the Italy odds to a much more lucrative level without having to expose yourself to a disproportionately high risk in the resulting soccer bet
Analysis: Italy vs Albania
It will be interesting to see how far my compatriots make it this time at the EURO. The European champions are chronically underestimated on the betting markets, but in fact the opposition and obstacles to overcome in the Italian squad are greater than ever.
Francesco Acerbi and Giorgio Scalvini are two key defenders who have stayed at home through injury, as are attacking forces Vincenzo Grifo and Ciro Immobile.
Furthermore, “betting offender” Sandro Tonali, another important man in midfield, is missing and, with Domenico Berardi also injured, the main driving force in the opening, too.
As you can see, some key players are missing, which is why I’m not surprised that the June test matches against Turkey (0:0) and struggling Bosnia (1:0) didn’t exactly generate enthusiasm among the fans …
The Albanian squad, meanwhile, is better equipped than many observers would have expected. The squad boasts a double-digit number of players who played in Serie A in the 2023/24 season just ended and are therefore very familiar with Italian soccer.
The international break should also have given them fresh confidence, even if Liechtenstein (3-0) and Azerbaijan (3-1) can hardly be classed as suitable sparring partners for a showdown against Italy.
Nevertheless, after losing their first UEFA EURO 2024 qualifier against Poland, the “Kuq e Zinjtë” did not lose any of their next seven matches (4 wins, 3 draws).
For the first time in history, Albania finished first in a qualifying group for a major international tournament.
Italy Albania odds analysis
Among the special offers of the bookmaker Betano you will not only find a great free bet, but also one or two odds boosts on selected offers.
Want a suggestion? Gianluca Scamacca has played a really strong season for Atalanta. If he becomes the Italian player with the most goals at this European Championship, the bookmaker will pay out attractive odds of around 4.50.
With regard to the Italy Albania odds, on the other hand, I will consider all betting offers that cover the three most likely outcomes with 0:0, 1:0 and 2:0 for Italy and at the same time have a reasonable payout amount.
Italy vs Albania odds: Will ITA score the winning goal early?
My additional Italy Albania betting tip? A 1-0 score at the break, which has been given odds of almost exactly 3.00 by the official sponsor of Euro 2024.
Incidentally, you could sweeten this scenario with Gianluca Scamacca, who I already mentioned in the last section of my Italy Albania prediction.
For example, if the Bergamo man scores the first goal of the game – and thus the 1:0 – there are relatively high odds of around 5.20, which can be dusted off at Betano.
Italy’s catenaccio makes for low-scoring games
I’d stick to a clean sheet for Italy in any case, or at least a sub-2.5-goal bet.
Italy have never conceded more than one goal per game in their last two UEFA EURO appearances in 2016 and 2020: In fact, they have only allowed a total of six goals in their last 12 games in this competition.
But that’s nothing new! Italy’s 45 games at European Championships have produced an average of just 1.84 goals (52 for, 31 against).
That is the lowest ratio of all 25 teams that have played 10 or more games in the competition.
One of the reasons why I’m sticking to a 1-0 or 2-0 win for ITA is that 75% of all international matches between the two nations have gone to Italy with one of these two results.
Incidentally, this will be the first meeting between the Azzurri and the Balkan side at a major tournament. Italy have won all four of their previous encounters with Albania (7 goals to 1), curiously all of which have taken place since 2014.
Furthermore, in my opinion, the Albanians lack a reliable attacker in the center of the attack to break through against such a disciplined defense. Nervousness could also be a problem for them next Saturday.
Albania’s only win at a UEFA EURO so far came against Romania in the final group game of the 2016 edition (1-0 with a goal from Armando Sadiku). Will the inexperienced Balkan side need some time to get going again this time around?
My Italy Albania tip:
I don’t expect Italy to even come close to repeating the success of four years ago.
Especially as perhaps the four most important players from the last EURO are not back and the last few performances were not exactly the yellow of the egg …
But against this inexperienced opponent, the Azzurri, who are focused on defending, should be able to score early in the game and then successfully save it over time
My tip: Italy win 1-0 or 2-0
