Copa America, Group D, Wednesday, 03.07.2024 at 03:00 PM
Time for a Costa Rica Paraguay betting tip! Even though five-time world champions Brazil seem to have already turned the corner in Group D of this Copa America edition.
The goal difference means that the “Ticos”, who are level on points, have already slammed the door in their faces for a possible quarter-final appearance before matchday 3!
Regardless of this, however, I suspect that the bookmakers are on the wrong track with their Costa Rica Paraguay odds for this match
Costa Rica were unable to build on their huge success in the Brazil game. After a clean sheet against the five-time world champions, the score at the end of matchday 2 was 3-0 to Colombia.
The “Ticos” were actually quite well in the game, but an over-motivated action by Navas’ successor Sequeira led to a penalty kick after just over half an hour, which the South Americans not only converted, but used to quickly pull the game back in their favor.
Until then, the Costa Ricans’ stonewalling was very reminiscent of the match against Brazil, but the game changed after the penalty. Nevertheless, the crass underdogs still have a chance of reaching the quarter-finals, even if it is only on paper
The Costa Ricans’ goal difference is already significantly worse than that of the Brazilians at -3 to 3, so a lot really has to happen on matchday 3 for BRA to be knocked out of second place.
Moreover, it is unlikely that the still goalless Costa Ricans, after scoring xG values of 0.03 and 0.27 in games 1 and 2 respectively, will now produce an offensive firework display out of nowhere against Paraguay.
Nonetheless, the Central Americans can be expected to play a much more attacking style than in the games against the superior Brazil and Colombia, who are now unbeaten in 25 consecutive international matches.
CRC are therefore likely to adopt a much more attack-minded approach against Paraguay on Wednesday
Paraguay have scored against both Brazil and Colombia, but have conceded four and two goals respectively.
The fact that they have scored in consecutive games at this Copa America – and against two such prestigious defenses to boot – surprises me greatly!
That’s because they’ve scored as many international goals as they did between the start of the 2023 calendar year and the start of this tournament. To make matters worse, they’ve been missing a big-name Serie A player like Antonio Sanabria up front for months now!
There are arguments that can be made for both sides, but the Euro betting providers have made it easy for me to recommend a good bet with their Costa Rica Paraguay odds.
Costa Rica have only lost to Argentina (1:3) and Colombia (0:3) in the 2024 calendar year and have therefore gone the other six international matches in this period without defeat (4 wins, 2 draws).
This even includes a clean sheet against Uruguay, although this must be taken with a pinch of salt. In this pre-Copa America test match, the Celeste fielded a B team made up of substitutes from head to toe.
Very few nations would stand a chance against the current version of the Uruguayans – least of all the “Ticos” – and bookmakers are now paying more and more attention to them in their Copa America betting odds.
At the same time, I can hardly understand the bookmakers’ decision to declare Paraguay the favorites in this match.
The South Americans have no chance of reaching the quarter-finals, nor have they beaten a continentally respected nation in 18 months.
Indeed, they have only a 1-0 win over CONMEBOL whipping boy Bolivia and a 1-0 friendly victory over Panama to their name in the run-up to this tournament. As a result, I honestly don’t know what to make of the “Albirroja’s” odds of around 2.05 on Wednesday.
A quick glance at the Costa Rica Paraguay odds via the Oddset app is enough for me to immediately recognize which offer deserves my attention.
This is a simple double chance 1X bet, which promises odds of around 1.73 and which I will take without an additional condition regarding the number of goals
The reason is simple: both nations are not exactly known for having a first-class offense.
Nevertheless, the average odds of 2.40 for a successful over-2.5-goal bet, which are currently available in the bookmakers’ shop windows along with one or two free bets for the European Championship, are quite generous.
A lively match with plenty of goalmouth action is likely anyway, given the starting position and circumstances.
On balance, however, I’m staying away from this betting option after checking that the last two international matches between Costa Rica and Paraguay from 2015 and 2016 both ended 0-0.
Conclusion: If CRC really still believe they can reach the quarter-finals, they must aim to beat Paraguay 3-0 or possibly even 4-0 from the outset.
The result could be a turbulent and high-scoring game, which is worth betting on simply because the Costa Rica Paraguay betting odds of the bookies have been set relatively generously for an eventful match.
Nevertheless, I have more reasons to stick to the bare facts and figures. And that’s why I prefer a simple double chance 1X bet to this and all other types of bets.
My tip: Double chance 1X
