Copa America, Group D, Wednesday, 03.07.2024 at 03:00
The five-time world champions finally seem to have “arrived” at the Copa America – not just physically, but mentally too.
However, according to the current Copa America betting odds, they are no longer the absolute top favorites to win the tournament, at least not since the embarrassing zero at the start of the tournament!
BRA must now prove the bookies wrong on the pitch and win at all costs. Otherwise they face a clash with Uruguay in the quarter-finals.
According to my Brazil Colombia betting tip, however, it won’t be easy to seriously challenge the “Cafeteros” for group victory
Of course, the zero number against Costa Rica at the start of the tournament was disappointing!
But even if I still believe that Argentina and Uruguay will decide the title between themselves, it would have been too early to write off the Brazilians prematurely at this point.
Because what didn’t work against the “Ticos” in the opening game worked against Paraguay just one matchday later – there’s only one thing we should agree on: Paquetá is not allowed to take penalties from now on!
But apart from the penalty he missed by a mile, there really wasn’t much to complain about in Brazil’s 4-1 win. First and foremost, because with a whopping xG value of 4.22, even the data analysts believe that this success was well deserved
A lot depends on Vinicius Junior for the Brazilians – and while the Real Madrid man is usually not quite as convincing in the national shirt as he is at club level, it is thanks to his brace that Paraguay were knocked out of the competition.
But beating Paraguay is one thing, beating Colombia is quite another. In my opinion, it is anything but a given that the “cafeteros” will lose out in the battle for group victory next Wednesday.
However, the European Championship betting providers would like to convince you of this in their Brazil Colombia odds. After all, the Brazil odds have been set at a value of around 1.78, which usually corresponds to that of a favorite.
Colombia have won their first two group games against Paraguay and Costa Rica 2:1 and 3:0 respectively, not always by a large margin, but always deservedly so.
Incidentally, these two victories fit seamlessly into a winning streak of ten international matches, which began with a 2:1 win over Brazil on November 17, 2023.
Since then, countries such as Mexico (3:2), Spain (1:0) and Copa hosts USA (5:1) have been defeated. And don’t forget that the South Americans also played a major part in the dismissal of Hansi Flick with their 2-0 win over Germany almost exactly a year ago.
Colombia haven’t lost an international match since March 2022! That’s an incredible 25 friendly and competitive matches in a row that this perfectly coordinated squad has gone without defeat.
In the same period, Brazil have suffered seven defeats in the short or long term, so I can’t understand the opinion of the bookmakers and their Brazil Colombia odds in this form.
This means that at least a double chance X2 bet for next Wednesday is almost a must for any sports betting fan who is as enthusiastic about profitable free bets as they are about statistically motivated betting tips.
Just because Brazil have just beaten Paraguay, 58th in the FIFA world rankings, doesn’t mean they should automatically be the favorites against an opponent that is currently one of the best in the world.
And I’ll be honest with you: the Colombia odds of around 4.60 are generous enough to trust that the “Cafeteros” will bring the Brazilians’ problems in creating goalscoring opportunities to light for all to see on Wednesday.
For BRA, too much simply depends on Vinicius Junior, who often gets caught out. Given that Colombia have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 8 competitive games, I’m sticking to my guns: Brazil’s win over Paraguay is meaningless!
There are several ways to mitigate the risk if you are not fully convinced that the Colombians will successfully bring the five-time world champions to their knees.
One option, of course, would be to place a double chance X2 bet and trust that the group winners will once again go all out – which is exactly what the bookies don’t quite have on their radar
Although the 2.5-goal mark has been broken in each of the last five international matches involving Colombia, there are still generous odds of around 2.05 for a continuation of this streak next Wednesday.
Personally, I recommend a real “jackpot bet” for the more risk-averse sports betting fans among you.
Because with combined odds of 7.70 for a Brazil-Colombia bet along the lines of “Win COL & Over 2.5 goals”, you can usually claim a decent payout from any provider.
Conclusion: Officially, I’m recommending one of the most promising Brazil Colombia tips for Wednesday.
But I fear that this would be far too cautious, as you would be missing out on a number of much more profitable options.
These range from a Colombian victory to one in which at least three goals will be scored – as was the case in the last joint meeting with the five-time world champions.
But my safety-first tip remains: Double chance X2
