Conference League Quali, 1st round, second leg, Thursday, 17.07.2024 at 19:00
In injury time, Tbilisi improved their starting position for the second leg in their own stadium. Nikoloz Ugrekhelidze scored the equalizer against Mornar Bar in the fourth minute of stoppage time while the visitors were outnumbered.
Last year’s runners-up in Montenegro’s top flight were mercilessly efficient. I expect a different outcome in the reunion. It will be difficult to repeat the result against Georgia’s strongest offense of the previous season. I expect a home win and add over 1.5 goals at Oddset.
A first leg almost to forget for Tbilisi in the first qualifying round of the Conference League, playful superiority without the last consequence. The visitors were only able to score the equalizer in overtime after trailing 2-0 for a long time in Montenegro.
68 percent possession, eleven to three shots. The dominance can also be seen in the statistics, but it was the hosts who won, as they played their home game in an alternative stadium, the DG Arena.
Tbilisi should make more of their opportunities at home, and in view of the impending elimination they should be more aggressive anyway. The top sports betting apps offer odds of around 1.35 for Tbilisi to win. A 6.60 awaits for Mornar Bar, while the draw odds are in the 5.00 range.
The 19-time Georgian champions go into the second leg against Mornar Bar in a stadium with seats for around 55,000 people. The crowd is definitely a factor. Will the Marnar Bar squad be able to contain their awe? After all, their own ground only has 3,500 seats.
It has not yet been enough for the championship title in Montenegro. Last season’s second place is their best finish to date, with fifth and eighth places before that. Founded in 1923, the team was promoted to the first division for the first time in 2009
This is the first time the team has competed in an international competition and started with a win. No comparison to the history of Dinamo Dinamo Tbilisi, the Georgians won the European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1981. Dinamo are record champions in their home country with 19 titles.
The team’s youth also produced Napoli superstar and national hero Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The clubs are rarely able to retain the big talents. The Georgian league is not strong enough for that. For comparison: the entire Erovnuli League is worth half as much in millions of euros as Kvaratskhelia alone
The capital city team fell a hair’s breadth short of a 20th title in Georgia 2023, but the offense once again showed its enormous qualities. 93 goals in 36 matches, league best, 2.58 goals on average.
However, Tbilisi also conceded 49 goals, too many for the championship. This season, on the other hand, has been sluggish. Only five wins from the first 18 matches, mediocre. The top teams are already far behind
The last matches were in the Georgian Super Cup, a 2-0 win over Iberia in the semi-final and a 2-1 defeat in the final against Torpedo Kutaisi. As against Mornar in the first leg of the Conference League qualifier, they managed to score the equalizer shortly before the final whistle.
Tbilisi left a lot to be desired, especially away from home. Dinamo have lost just one game at home and conceded just five goals in nine matches. Meanwhile, Montenegro are on their summer break and Mornar have been preparing for the Conference League match with test matches.
However, these were not successful. A 2:4 against Buducnost and two 0:0s against Beograd and Mladost
Challenged hosts, who still had the second-best offense in the nation last year and have only lost one match at home so far this season. Are goals in the air?
Definitely, the team from Bar also conceded 21 of their 33 goals last season on away trips.
At Intertops, you can not only deposit conveniently via Paypal, but also prepare yourself for a huge selection of odds. There are 1.74 odds for over 2.5 goals and 2.92 for at least four goals in the match
I find the over 1.5 goals variant paired with the home win the best. The constellation allows for a 1.66. Tbilisi clearly has the stronger squad in offense and defense, which is already somewhat weakened by the red card of Ermin Seratlic.
In addition, with over 1.5 goals, the 2:0 result, which is not unlikely in the second leg and would be enough for the favored hosts to advance, is covered by the over 2.5 goals. The odds of 1.50 for Tbilisi to progress are too low for me personally
Conclusion: Dinamo were clearly the better team in the first leg, but just missed their chances. Georgia’s record champions are much better at home this season.
I expect an even bolder performance in front of their own fans, Tbilisi should be superior in terms of play. Although the primary goal is to overturn the 2-1 deficit, I trust the hosts to score twice in regulation time.
Bar are also much more susceptible to conceding goals away from home. A match in a stadium with a capacity of 55,000 is also a novelty for the club, which was first promoted to Montenegro’s first division in 2009.
My Dinamo Tbilisi Mornar tip: Victory Tbilisi & over 1.5 goals
