Challenge League, Friday, 19.07.2024 at 20:15
In Denmark and Switzerland, the 2024/25 season opened so quickly across Europe that the NEObet bonus conditions – one of the best new customer offers on the internet – could hardly be updated properly.
Meanwhile, I have devoted myself intensively to the league opener in the Challenge League! I’m taking a close look at a top match that could possibly determine who will be promoted at the end of the season.
Hopefully I’m equally correct with my bookmaker’s and promising Aarau Thun tip!
It’s tough in Switzerland’s second division and I can assure you that FC Thun would have easily been promoted in almost any season other than 2023/24.
But nobody could match FC Sion’s outstanding record of 23 wins, 10 draws and just three defeats.
The men from the Bernese Oberland would naturally like to do better this season, but it won’t be quite that easy. Especially as a number of personnel issues remain unresolved ahead of the Challenge League opener.
In fact, there’s a big question mark hanging over the goalkeeper issue, which is why I can’t quite understand the bookmakers’ confidence that last year’s runners-up in the Swiss lower division will master the league opener with ease
From left to right, the Aarau Thun odds read like a relaxed affair for the visitors with average values of 4.10, 3.90 and 1.65. But have the bookmakers not heard the latest bad news?
Mateo Matic, the regular keeper, has let his contract expire this summer so that he can join FC Winterthur soon. Nino Ziswiler was supposed to replace him against Aarau, but he suffered a serious injury in the last test match before the league opener.
According to the latest reports, the club will now turn to Niklas Steffen, a keeper with 21 Challenge League games under his belt, who could of course be extremely nervous on Friday in his very first game for Thun.
With my favorite sports betting app in hand, I took a long look at the Aarau Thun odds and came to the conclusion that the home win odds already discussed have been chosen far too generously.
Because regardless of the visitors’ goalkeeping problem, FC Aarau seem to have recovered better than expected from their horror 2023/24 season finale, when they lost each of their last five point games.
I wouldn’t necessarily count the Aargau side among the promotion candidates, but the new additions and the latest test match results ahead of the 2024/25 Challenge League opener are certainly impressive.
A host of talented players such as Serge Muller (Freiburg), Lenny Janko (FC Zurich), Linus Obexer (Lausanne Ouchy) and Emmanuel Ernest (Al Urooba) have joined since the start of July, all of whom I consider to be useful additions
Of course, both teams will not line up in the same way as they did when they last met in the second half of the 2023/24 season.
However, FC Aarau’s 3-0 home win in mid-April reinforces my belief that the hosts will at least get a point on Friday.
As I said, I simply don’t see the visitors from the Bernese Oberland as the clear favorites here, and Aarau have prepared far too well to deny them any chance of a useful result from the outset
Aarau began their series of test matches at the end of June with easier encounters against Olten (5:0) and Kriens (3:3), but then took on real Swiss footballing giants in July when they were invited by Lugano (1:0) and Young Boys (0:1).
The fact that they only narrowly lost to YB in the dreaded Wankdorf – who admittedly did not field their A team – must nevertheless be seen as a success for the second division team. Because there is simply no tougher dress rehearsal in the Alpine republic
I’ll tell you honestly that a 0:0 or 1:1 are results that I can well imagine, but that I will consciously avoid.
I just don’t feel like making a risky bet at the start of the season, even if the starting position and the Aarau Thun odds already discussed almost scream for it.
Besides, the double chance 1X odds of around 2.05 for one to three points for the home side are high enough for me to place a simple single bet without hesitation.
And if you need a little statistical encouragement to follow my example, you should take a look at the history between the two clubs at least as intensively as the Interwetten bonus – it’s worth it.
FC Thun have only won one competitive match at the Brügglifeld stadium since mid-September 2014 – and that was around three years ago (2:0).
If you draw up an away record over this period, it looks like this from Thun’s perspective: 1 win, 1 draw, 8 defeats.
At this point at the latest, I would want to avoid the already discussed away win odds of around 1.65 for the FCT at all costs
Conclusion: Thun face a tricky task against an opponent who already showed them up at this very venue three months ago.
The goalkeeper issue presents further uncertainty, as the visitors will have to start with a keeper who, in the eyes of the 2023/24 coach, would not even have been quite suitable as a number three.
Aarau, on the other hand, have acquired some useful players for Operation “Aufstieg” without having to transfer any transfer fees and will, in my opinion, if not win, then at least not lose!
My Aarau Thun betting tip is therefore: Double chance 1X.
