Italian Grand Prix in Monza, Sunday, 01.09.2024 at 15:00
The dominance is finally over, or has one from a new team already begun? Despite winning the start, Max Verstappen only trailed Lando Norris in the end, with the Briton crossing the finish line in Zandvoort with a lead of over 20 seconds.
No home win for Verstappen, the first time since the reintroduction of the World Championship race on the North Sea coast. Is the fourth world championship title now also in jeopardy?
Norris has taken a full eight points from the Red Bull driver, with a 70-point lead remaining and a long season ahead
But one swallow doesn’t make a summer. The difference before the break wasn’t huge, but Verstappen hasn’t won any of the last five races. This weekend in Monza will be a completely different track with completely different conditions.
I wouldn’t dare make a prediction at the front. Ferrari are suddenly back at the front and Mercedes should not be written off on fast tracks either.
In any case, I am convinced that Daniel Ricciardo will finish ahead of Pierre Gasly. The latter is struggling with top speed in the Alpine, which is so important at Monza. That’s why it’s not difficult for me to make a choice in this betting market.
Lando Norris has secured pole in qualifying. World champion Verstappen only starts in seventh place
The royal park of Monza, no place can boast more Formula 1 events. In fact, the high-speed circuit with the highest proportion of full-throttle racing on the calendar has been there every year so far.
In addition to spectacular surprise victories by Sebastian Vettel, Pierre Gasly and Daniel Ricciardo, there have also been terrible accidents that have cost the lives of legends of the sport. Jochen Rind, Alberto Ascari, Ronny Peterson, to name but a few
Test: Starting grid for the Italian GP
The pilots show a lot of respect for the course. With flat wing settings, speeds of over 350 kilometers per hour are reached. In return, the teams sacrifice grip in the corners. However, a bit of tradition has now been taken away from the track.
The first chicane has been slightly redesigned, and the road boundaries and kerbs have also been adapted. With the flat curbs, the drivers should now be able to get through the corners even faster
As already mentioned, Monza has often been a place for surprise winners. Not a good place to place a winner or top 3 bet.
For the first time, Verstappen is not going into the race as the top favorite according to the odds of the betting providers ahead of a race weekend.
Norris leads the odds table with 2.25, while Verstappen is rated second (4.25) by Happybet, for example.
They are followed by Piastri, Mercedes and the Ferrari stars. If the last race at Zandvoort is anything to go by, the odds of over 2.20 on Norris are super.
But Formula 1 is complex. So I’m all the happier that I’ve been able to record a good plus with my tips for you over the season so far.
First of all, it’s almost twice as warm in Monza for the race and, in addition to the many bumps, Zandvoort was much slower in terms of track type. The circuit in the dunes required a completely different aerodynamic specification.
And Red Bull didn’t look good on the slow tracks during the season. It was different one race earlier in Spa, where Verstappen was one of the fastest, but had to start further back due to an engine penalty and got stuck in the field
In Monza, the Dutchman will start from the position in which he qualifies, provided no mishap occurs in the preceding sessions. After the dominant pole in the Ardennes, the 1.69 odds for a place in the top 2 are still the best bet if you want to bet on the front of the field.
However, I have my sights set on one of the duel bets from the Oddset app. I always like to have a look there, especially before the race weekend. The odds generally drop after the first sessions if my impression is confirmed.
That’s why I can advise you to take a look at my Formula 1 tips before the first practice anyway. I usually have to make a new bet on Sunday to be able to offer you profitable odds
The last 5 races at the Autodromo Nazionale di Monza:
At Oddset you get 1.50 odds for Ricciardo’s duel victory against Gasly. Yes, the Australian has been struggling with his form for years and can’t quite keep up with his teammate, but he clearly has a more suitable car than Alpine at Monza.
It has long been known that the French are struggling with an engine deficit. In future, the works team will even stop producing its own power units and fall back on a customer engine from another manufacturer.
Monza is likely to be uncomfortable for the Alpine squad. No circuit demands more power than the Temple of Speed
Betano’s 1.87 odds for a safety car deployment are also interesting. The many straights provide potential for slipstreaming and subsequent wheel-to-wheel duels in the tight combinations.
Speaking of the safety car, Bernd Mayländer crashed his Aston Martin on Thursday during the usual test laps.
A technical defect was responsible for the crash into the barriers. It was the first accident for the former DTM driver in over 20 years as a safety car driver
Conclusion: It’s getting very tight at the top again. The latest high-speed specification for the Red Bull worked well at Spa. The Dutchman was good both on one lap and in the long run. Is there going to be a quick liberation after the clear failure at Zandvoort?
The top 2 Verstappen bet is a good one, but not my favorite odds for this weekend. In my opinion, it’s much more realistic that Ricciardo will finish ahead of Gasly.
Alpine will have a hard time with the horsepower disadvantage. What’s more, Ricciardo has been faster than Gasly on all high-speed circuits so far. I have a clear favorite in the duel between the Monza surprise winners of 2020 and 2021.
My Formula 1 Italian GP Monza tip: Ricciardo ahead of Gasly
