Bundesliga 5th matchday, Saturday, 09/28/2024 at 3:30 pm
Wolfsburg fell victim to the usual Leverkusen madness. Once again, Xabi Alonso’s team managed to score the winning goal in injury time. The balance has long since exceeded the level of “eerie”.
However, the next opponents from Baden-Württemberg are also unerring in every situation. Stuttgart recently gave BVB a memorable 5-1 thrashing. It can also be done without Serhou Guirassy, who has moved to Dortmund.
In my Wolfsburg Stuttgart betting tip, I expect a similar spectacle to that in VfL’s home game last season, so I’m going for over 2.5 goals for both teams at NEO.bet.
Stuttgart has slowly found its feet. The international break did the team of Sebastian Hoeneß good. At the start of the season, there was only a 1-3 loss to Freiburg and a 1-1 draw against Mainz. This was followed by a 3-1 away win at Mönchengladbach and a 5-1 home win against the other Borussia.
Stuttgart also made a good impression in the Champions League. In a box-to-box game, the team sold themselves well at the Santiago Bernabeu, equalized at one point and only gave up the point shortly before the end.
The betting providers’ prediction
Can they repeat their strong performance in Wolfsburg? The Champions League participants travel to the Volkswagen Arena as slight favorites at 2.18. The Wolves have a win rate of 3.10 in the Betano app.
The draw is considered the most unlikely outcome at 3.75. I can’t find anything suitable. Wolfsburg may only have three points on the board, but they have had a tough program so far and have done well in every match.
Ultimately, I distance myself from the 1X2 market because of the high risk. Does the AI see it the same way?
AI prediction Wolfsburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
We asked the artificial intelligence for three odds, one each with high, medium and low risk. I am excited every time to see what it suggests based on the wealth of data it can access.
The “Over 2.5 goals” at 1.52 odds at NEO.bet is considered “low-risk” by ChatGPT. She immediately agrees with my bet. In all seven of VfB’s competitive games, the opponents have scored at least three goals, so that statistic is in our favor.
The medium and high risk options are similar. The AI can imagine a comeback by the guests, suggesting the Wolfsburg half-time lead once, which is in the odds range of 3.40.
And for those who like it even higher, according to the AI, there is a 6.70 chance that Stuttgart will win the match from a deficit. In this case, the two variants are too hot for me.
But I am well aware that Wolfsburg have given up the lead in two of their last four league games and that last season’s 1-0 away win against VfB did not last long.
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart – Wolfsburg
Ultimately, you know my odds highs and approach here. I try to tackle odds above the 1.50 mark and to tap the odds with the highest probability of occurrence.
Every now and then there is also something above the 2.00 mark, but it is rare.
Wolfsburg had the hammer game against Bayern on the first matchday, and were temporarily leading 2-1, as in the recent defeat against Leverkusen.
In addition to the 2-3 and 3-4 against the top teams, the only three-pointer to date came from the away game against promoted team Holstein Kiel. Then VfL went away empty-handed again in the home game against Frankfurt, a 1-2.
The 2009 German champions scored plenty of goals, but Kiel did not score. Stuttgart have not yet enjoyed the pleasure of keeping a clean sheet at league level. So far, betting on both teams scoring over 2.5 goals has been the right choice in all matches.
It was only one-sided in the 5-0 defeat to Münster in the DFB Cup.
Odds Analysis
It is suitable for a goal bet if the teams are cautious with their chances. This is definitely the case with Wolfsburg and Stuttgart. With an efficiency of 14.8 percent and 13.8 percent, they are at the top of the league.
In addition, both offensive departments are quite strong. Stuttgart only has to do without Justin Diehl. At Wolfsburg, Lukas Nmecha, Lovro Majer and Bartosz Bialek are currently unavailable.
In addition, there are absences in both defenses, which are accommodated in an over-goal bet. In addition to my “Both score & Over 2.5 goals” combo, I also find the 1.50 odds for a goal in both halves at Betano interesting.
In a total of twelve matches, both teams have experienced a game with a goal in both halves nine times. Last season, there were also goals in both 45-minute halves in the direct duels.
Wolfsburg – VfB Stuttgart Odds: Will Stuttgart beat Wolfsburg again?
Stuttgart triumphed both times, winning 3-1 in the first leg and 3-2 in the return. Could the “Over 3.5” line not even be considered?
Betano offers odds of 2.30 for this, which in my opinion is a bit too much of a risk, but you could use your 20 euros free bet for this bet if you are not yet registered. As a new customer, you don’t even have to make a deposit to do this.
In addition, you will always get various odds boosts at Betano, with great odds waiting for many games and increased odds for the 1X2 market.
Demirovic and Undav are feared
It is clear that Stuttgart’s offensive play is feared even without Guirassy. In a 4-4-2 system, national team player Deniz Undav and Augsburg newcomer Ermedin Demirovic form the strike force, together they have scored seven Bundesliga goals.
In the seven competitive matches, at least one of the two strikers has scored six times. That’s where the eye is drawn directly to the goal-scoring odds, and they are really interesting.
Undav has 2.50 and Demirovic has 2.75. Here I would send both offensive players into the race with the same stake as an individual bet. If one of them scores, a nice profit is already waiting.
If both score, the joy is all the greater, which, incidentally, has been the case in two of his last three games.
Nevertheless, Wolfsburg can be happy that at least the striker from Guinea is not facing them on Saturday afternoon. After all, he scored five of the six goals against VfL in the previous season.
Given the number of different scorers, there is no real price for Wolfsburg in this market.
Ralph Hasenüttl, who secured the club’s place in the Bundesliga last season, played a 4-2-3-1 formation on the first three matchdays, but switched to a 4-1-4-1 formation against Leverkusen.
My Wolfsburg VfB Stuttgart Tip:
Stuttgart is dangerous for every opponent. The VfB plays a dangerous offensive football that has rolled over Dortmund and also partially driven the royals of Real Madrid into despair.
The hosts face a difficult task, having conceded six goals against the team from the Mercedes and Porsche city last year. In view of Wolfsburg’s strong performances (only narrow defeats against the big teams), I consider a Stuttgart win too risky.
I don’t even dare to bet on the X2, the odds are too low anyway. Both teams will get their top chances as they did in the previous season and in view of the cold-bloodedness of the forwards, which is also statistically recorded, I come to the following odds.
My Wolfsburg VfB Stuttgart prediction: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals!
