Champions League, Tuesday, 22.10.2024 at 21:00
Aston Villa have made the perfect start in the new Champions League league system, winning their first two of eight matches. Most recently there was the surprise three-pointer against Bayern. Now they host Bologna.
The visitors currently have just one point to their name, having drawn 0-0 against Donetsk. There is some catching up to do, but I expect the visitors to come away empty-handed on their second trip to the island.
What’s more, it should be a match that doesn’t go completely off the rails in terms of goals. Therefore, in my Aston Villa Bologna betting tip at Betano, I add the under 5.5 goals to the home side’s victory for even better odds.
The international break is over and Aston Villa have bounced back with a 3-1 away win against Fulham, making it nine competitive games unbeaten. Only Arsenal took two points from Villa Park on the second Premier League matchday.
AVFC are in fourth place in the league, just four points off leaders Liverpool. Five wins from the last eight matches and two victories in the Champions League and a still clean slate.
The bookmaker forecast
After a strong start to the 2023/24 season, it is hardly surprising that the hosts are listed as favorites at 1.62 at Happybet and Co. in the 1X2 market. The Bologna win is at 5.50.
It looks like the Italians will still have to wait for their first win in the Champions League. Even the draw will be difficult according to the bookmakers: 3.95. The X2 is also quite high at 2.32.
KI prediction Aston Villa – Bologna: ChatGPT
How does the AI rate this? It definitely doesn’t have a very clear opinion this time. Once again, we asked for three different odds with varying degrees of risk.
I often go with the low-risk odds, sometimes they even match my own suggested betting tip, as was the case this time, with ChatGPT suggesting an Aston Villa win.
The middle risk variant, however, is the double chance X2. I’ve already told you the odds for this, but in my eyes it has no value, even if Bologna have only conceded a few defeats this season.
In Serie A, after eight matchdays, it is only one, but FC have only won a single game. Six matches have ended in draws, including the opening match in the top flight, where they suffered an unexciting 2-0 defeat at Liverpool.
Given the current form of Unai Emery’s team, the X2 at odds just above the 2.00 mark is too weak for me. The high risk option is much better for me. Here the AI advises the bet that Aston Villa will win both halves.
Analysis: Aston Villa vs. Bologna
The odds are more lucrative, but the Villans winning both legs is something we’ve only seen against Young Boys from Bern so far this season. In general, I expect a cautious result.
That’s why I’ve also added the under 5.5 goals in my betting tip, which gives the overall odds a nice jump and the under bet hardly carries any risk in my eyes.
For the oddsmakers, it’s already about 50/50 whether three goals will be scored at all. Betano has a 1.82 for over 2.5 goals. A 1.28 is waiting for at least two goals, and for over 3.5 goals the stake is quadrupled in the event of success.
However, I primarily expect a match in which both teams focus on stability, Aston Villa create the clearer chances in the end and win 1:0, 2:0 or 2:1.
Odds analyse
Alternatively, I see a multi-result combination in this match. You can do this at Winamax, a betting provider without tax. In addition, your deposit of up to 100 euros will be doubled in the form of freebet credit.
I have built a better double chance 1X bet with the Winamax betting configurator. In addition to the 0:0 and 1:1 as a hedge, I threw the results 1:0, 2:0, 3:0 – 2:1, 3:1 into the odds mixer and a 1.52 comes out, not bad!
Incidentally, six of Aston Villa’s last games have ended like this. After the 1-0 win against Bayern, there was a goalless match at home against Manchester United. This was followed by a 3-1 win over Fulham after the international break.
Aston Villa vs Bologna odds: Bologna with just one win this season
Bologna don’t have the broadest of chests on Tuesday, with just one win from ten competitive games, two defeats and seven draws. A few defeats make for nice reading, of course, but too many draws ultimately mean too few points.
The Champions League defeat to Liverpool was followed by a 0-0 draw at home to Parma and a 2-2 draw against Genoa.
The team from Emilia-Romagna had a little more of the game in both matches and conceded a bitter, late equalizer at the weekend, but the performances were not really convincing.
Many absences for the visitors
Aston Villa are of a completely different calibre, are one of the best teams in England in their current form and also have more individual stars in their ranks in their €600 million squad.
While the British side are yet to concede a goal, Bologna have still not scored a Champions League goal. And on the third matchday, the visitors will not be able to draw on their full offensive resources.
In addition to captain Lewis Ferguson, several other important names are missing in attack and other positions. Aston Villa will only be a little thin at the back six with the absences of Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara.
Aston Villa and Bologna will face each other for the first time in international business. There has also been no match at test match level so far.
The first match is likely to be a fairly one-sided affair in favor of the hosts, who are in better form and have more confidence and attacking ability.
In addition, Bolgna have struggled against the few bigger clubs at the start of the new season, with the Liverpool defeat and a 2-0 loss to Napoli.
In the home game against Atalanta, the 1:1 at the end of the game with the Bergamo equalizer in the 90th minute was bitter, but even here Bologna had hardly any share of the game with 5:23 scoring chances.
Nevertheless, I would like to give the Bologna fans a little encouragement, the only win of the season was achieved away at AC Monza (2:1).
My Aston Villa Bologna tip:
Bologna has not yet convinced me this season, especially in the offensive so far. There are a lot of new names, but it hasn’t been enough for a Champions League goal yet.
I think Aston Villa are much further ahead at the moment. The Villans have a much stronger squad and recently beat Bayern in the Premier League. The 3:1 against Fulham shows that their form has been preserved over the international break.
I expect Bologna to struggle again against a top club, Aston Villa will not create a plethora of chances over the 90 minutes, but will ultimately create a few clear opportunities and secure their third win.
My Aston Villa Bologna prediction: Win Aston Villa & under 5.5 goals!
