Serie A, Sunday, 20.04.2025 at 20:45
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My personal focus is at least as much on the quality of my hopefully successful prediction as on selecting the best available AC Milan Atalanta Bergamo odds.
A real Serie A highlight awaits us on Easter weekend when AC Milan takes on Atalanta Bergamo – for the first time ever on this holiday.
For the Rossoneri, nothing less than their European future is at stake, as after losing the first leg 1-2, they are now facing the prospect of a double defeat in the head-to-head standings for the first time since the 2007/08 season.
That would certainly hurt the soul of every AC fan beyond the summer break!
Although winning the Coppa Italia is still a possible lifeline for international competition, relying on it would be more than risky.
Especially since their recent performances at home in San Siro are anything but reassuring!
Need some figures to back that up? Just one win from their last five home games is clearly not enough for a club with Milan’s ambitions (3 draws, 1 defeat).
AC’s biggest problem? Defensive instability.
Milan have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight home games – an alarming slump considering that the team had kept six clean sheets in the seven games before that.
This weak phase comes at the worst possible time, with the important cup return leg against Inter looming.
There is a real danger that concentration will slip in the league, and against a team like Atalanta, that can be punished immediately.
The visitors from Bergamo, on the other hand, have just regained their confidence with a 2-0 home win against Bologna – despite only having four shots on goal!
This success ended a mini-slump of three games without a win or a goal and could prove decisive in the race for the Champions League places.
However, Atalanta also has its problems: The 0-1 defeat in Florence on the 30th matchday of Serie A was their first away defeat after twelve unbeaten games in a row (9 wins, 3 draws).
Interestingly, Sunday would be only the second time this season that ATA has suffered two consecutive away defeats – and on that occasion, it was also a Milan club that was responsible for the back-to-back defeats (1-4 at Inter).
It’s a case of déjà vu that could give the Rossoneri at least a glimmer of hope.
In midfield, Tijjani Reijnders could be the match winner on Sunday – the Dutchman has scored the last goal for Milan in eight of his nine Serie A games in which he has been involved in a goal.
On the other side, Mateo Retegui is a real threat: the Argentine scored early against Bologna and has scored all eight of his goals this season away from home – three of them opening goals.
So if you bet on “1st goal: Retegui” at odds of around 6.30 in combination with a juicy sports betting bonus, you can’t go far wrong, at least statistically speaking.
Statistically speaking, both teams are also real comeback artists: only Bologna (17) has picked up more points after falling behind this season than Milan and Atalanta (16 and 15 respectively).
An early goal against them is therefore by no means the end of the game – both teams have proven time and again that they remain dangerous until the final whistle.
At some point during the game, the score is likely to be 1-1…
In the end, however, the individual class of some of Milan’s attacking players could prevail. A 2-1 win for Milan seems quite realistic, with odds of around 9.00.
Those who don’t want to bet quite so precisely could consider the “over 2.5 goals” option. With odds of around 1.80, this reflects the goal history of recent encounters, which have often been high-scoring affairs.
The attacking mindset of both teams and their tendency to play spectacular games also argue in favor of this option.
Ultimately, this clash promises not only exciting football, but also interesting betting opportunities for those who want to follow the game even more closely.
All in all, I expect a high-class, close duel with many tactical facets.
Milan will try to overcome their home weakness, while Atalanta will stick to their usual aggressive style of play.
One thing is certain: this game will be remembered not only because of Easter, but also because it could have a decisive impact on the European dreams of one of the two teams. A football festival with high tension is guaranteed!
My AC Milan Atalanta Bergamo tip: Both teams to score!
