Europa League, Thursday, 06.03.2025 at 21:00
Ajax against Frankfurt – that’s a duel that gets football fans excited. The “sons of God” are back in form this season and want to play off their home strength against the recently shaky Eintracht.
The SGE, on the other hand, clearly has to step up if they don’t want to throw in the towel prematurely in the Europa League round of 16.
The hosts sense an opportunity to build on past successes. Who will come out on top? In my Ajax Amsterdam Frankfurt betting tip, you can also find out what the bet365 bonus has to offer.
The fans of Eintracht go into this German-Dutch clash with Ajax with positive experiences.
Frankfurt has prevailed against teams from the Netherlands in a major European competition in both previous knockout duels.
In the 1979/80 and 1980/81 seasons, they knocked out Feyenoord and Utrecht from the UEFA Cup – however, both away games were lost.
Can the Hessians extend their streak? Or are these successes over Dutch clubs just too far behind to be considered for a promising Ajax Amsterdam Frankfurt betting tip?
The bookmakers’ prediction
The betting providers without tax – but also those with – have probably thought: “Why commit?” Because the Ajax Amsterdam Frankfurt odds are so even that you could almost flip a coin.
With 2.50 for the home side and 2.70 for the guests, the bookmakers believe that both teams are capable of winning, while the draw is also not out of the ordinary at 3.65.
Ajax have a strong home record, while Frankfurt have a notorious mentality in big games. Who has the decisive advantage here? That will probably only be decided on the pitch!
AI Prediction Ajax Amsterdam vs Frankfurt : That’s what ChatGPT tips
ChatGPT’s Ajax Amsterdam Frankfurt AI prediction provides three math-based betting options – which I strongly disagree with!
For example, “Ajax doesn’t score” is suggested for the high risk – but personally, I can’t imagine that happening at all! That’s because Amsterdam has scored in every home game so far in 2024/25.
For a medium risk, on the other hand, the AI assistant suggests “Double chance X2 & Over 2.5 goals”. I like it too, but not quite like that. Here I would have exchanged the “X2” for an “1X” rather, since I rate Ajax as a bit stronger at home.
Finally, for low risk, there is the suggestion of “double chance X2”. But here, too, I see it similarly to the medium risk: the Sons of God are extremely stable at home, so I would tend more towards “1X”.
Analysis: Ajax Amsterdam vs Frankfurt
Ajax will be looking to reach the quarter-finals of a European competition for the first time since the 2020/21 season, after they were last stopped in the knockout phase by Benfica (Champions League) and Aston Villa (Conference League).
At home in the Johan Cruyff Stadium, they are aiming for their eighth win in their last nine competitive games (1 loss) on Thursday. Respect!
But their last two home defeats were, of all things, in the Europa League, where they have actually lost four of the last six games (2 wins).
Eintracht Frankfurt, on the other hand, are arriving in poor form, having won just one of their last seven games and facing their biggest problems away from home. They have lost five of their last eight away games, including defeats at Lyon and Roma in the Europa League.
Defensively, the Hessians definitely need to improve, because they have only kept a clean sheet once in their last twelve European away games and have conceded eight goals in their last two Bundesliga games.
However, the recent defeats against Bayern and Leverkusen clearly show that the defense struggles against strong teams! So, Toppmöller’s team will need to be focused from the start if they are to succeed in Amsterdam.
Odds Analysis
“1st goal: Frankfurt” at odds of around 2.20 in the user-friendly Merkur Bets app is not a contradiction to my tip, because Ajax definitely has the quality to come back even after falling behind.
Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Eintracht have scored the first goal in 88% of their Europa League matches so far this season – an impressive statistic that further underpins this tip.
Ajax v Frankfurt odds: curse to be broken!
Ajax have finally found their feet again this season, and that’s why it might be time to break their European curse at home.
The Dutch side have now been waiting for a win in six home knockout matches in a major European competition (3 draws, 3 defeats).
Did you know? The last success dates back to the 2020/21 season, when they beat Young Boys 3-0.
Frankfurt, on the other hand, won a European trophy a few years ago, but consistently making it to the end is no longer necessarily their specialty.
That’s because Eintracht have survived six of their last eight last-16 ties in major European competitions – but they’ve lost two of their last three: to Basel in the 2019/20 Europa League and to Napoli in the 2022/23 Champions League.
Ajax with scoring guarantee?
It doesn’t make much sense to recommend a goal bet on a specific Ajax player.
That’s because Ajax has already had 10 different goal scorers (excluding own goals) this UEFA Europa League season, which is the highest number in a single major European campaign. Only four teams have more goal scorers in their ranks.
Incidentally, the AI tip mentioned earlier that Ajax would not score at all on Thursday sounded very unlikely to me right away, and the numbers confirm that.
Because Eintracht have not managed to finish a game without conceding a goal in their last nine away games in the Europa League. That clearly favors Ajax scoring at least once, doesn’t it?
Ajax hadn’t exactly shone in their last few important European home games, but if you look at their history against German teams, the Amsterdamers have a lot going for them.
Of their last 21 home games against German teams, they have only lost one (17 wins, 3 draws). And that was a 1-4 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League in 2012/13.
This shows that Amsterdam is quite strong on home soil, even if the most recent results have not been particularly convincing.
My Ajax Amsterdam Frankfurt Tip:
Ajax is a real force at home and will do everything they can to win the first leg. With a strong home advantage and convincing form, they want to take the first step towards success. And that is not unlikely.
Frankfurt, on the other hand, are reeling after heavy defeats to Bayern and Leverkusen and could suffer another setback.
My prediction: Ajax scores over 1.5 goals.
