Europa League, Thursday, 06.03.2025 at 21:00 CET
AS Roma vs Athletic Bilbao – a duel that could easily take place in the Champions League! But this time it is “only” about advancing to the quarter-finals of the Europa League, which in no way diminishes the appeal of this encounter.
The Romans want to lay the foundation for advancing in front of their home crowd in the eternal city, but Bilbao is known for its aggressive style of play and strong defense.
Who will come out on top? My AS Roma Athletic Bilbao betting tip will also tell you where the best odds are waiting for you!
AS Roma vs Athletic Bilbao? So we meet again! Because both teams already met in the league phase.
This will be only the second time the two opponents have faced each other in a major European competition, after they already played each other in September in the Olimpico with a 1-1 draw.
Who will win this time? Registering with ODDSET online is a nice move to put my AS Roma Athletic Bilbao prediction to the test.
The bookmakers’ prediction
The AS Rom Athletic Bilbao odds show that there is hardly any room for clear favorites! With 2.30 for the hosts and 3.25 for the Basques, this is a real duel on a knife edge.
Rome brings home strength, while Bilbao often feels particularly comfortable in such intense games.
The draw at 3.30 fits the picture – it could easily be a close game again, with small things making the difference.
AI prediction AS Roma vs Athletic Bilbao: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
ChatGPT’s AS Roma Athletic Bilbao AI prediction this time offers three exciting betting options – but not all of them fully convince me!
For the high risk, “Half-time/final score: AS Roma/AS Roma” is suggested. At an average of 3.75, these are quite high odds, no question about it, but I don’t think the Basques will be behind for that long.
The second suggestion from the AI, on the other hand, is a medium-risk proposition: “Half-time or final score AS Rome”. I like that a bit more, but in fact I would tend towards the counter-bet – namely that the Basques will win one half or the game.
Finally, the AI recommends “Under 2.5 goals” as a safe bet. That should be inevitable anyway. A 1-1 draw would even fit the bill here!
Analysis: AS Roma vs Athletic Bilbao
Roma and Athletic Bilbao face off in the round of 16 of the UEFA Europa League – a clash between two teams with legitimate hopes of winning the title.
The first leg will take place in Rome, where the hosts are in strong form: ten wins from their last 11 competitive matches at home (1 draw) underscore their home strength.
The Giallorossi also won 2-1 against Como at the weekend, which will have done wonders for their confidence. They have also won their last four home games in this competition, scoring nine goals in the process. Sounds great, doesn’t it!
Bilbao, on the other hand, would have gone into this game with confidence a week ago, but a 1-0 defeat to Atlético Madrid ended their six-game unbeaten streak in competitive matches (3 wins, 3 draws).
Nevertheless, they have a strong record in the Europa League, with six wins from their last seven games (1 loss).
However, the Basques face an uphill task away from home, having not won in their last four trips (2 draws, 2 defeats).
Roma will be banking on their home dominance, while Bilbao will be hoping for a turnaround on the road. It’s starting to smell like a 0-0 or 1-1, doesn’t it?
Odds Analysis
Roma have scored in 18 of 20 home games this season – a clear indication that the 1.55 odds for “Roma to score” are statistically well-founded. Their offensive home strength speaks for this tip.
On the other hand, a “1:1 result bet” at odds of around 6.50 could be interesting for those willing to take risks. Given the balance of power and Bilbao’s stable form, this result is a perfectly realistic scenario.
AS Roma vs. Athletic Bilbao Odds: Nerves of steel?
The Basques have been performing consistently well both nationally and internationally this season. In the Europa League, as already mentioned, they have won six of their last seven games, which underlines their strong form.
However, a glance at the knockout phase clouds the picture a little: four of the last five duels in this phase have been lost. The question remains whether Athletic Club will make it to the next round this time or fail again at the decisive hurdle.
The Basques are ice-cold in front of goal, though – half a chance is often enough. With 15 goals from an xG of only 10.4, they have scored 4.6 more goals than expected in this Europa League season – the highest “overvalue” in this competition.
This efficiency makes Athletic Club particularly dangerous, because when they get the chance, they rarely miss.
This is how the preliminary round match went in September!
The 1-1 draw in September offers some interesting insights into what we can expect this Thursday.
With a combined xG value of 1.10, we can consider ourselves lucky that the game ended 1-1 at all.
Based on the respective styles of play, I am again inclined to predict a game with fewer than 2.5 goals.
What is a problem from the Romans’ point of view is Paredes’ yellow suspension, which could destabilize the team.
The Argentine is an important cog in the “Giallorossi” machine, which is normally indispensable to ensure a successful performance by the Romans.
Roma will be counting on control at home without their top performer, while Bilbao will be relying on a compact defense. A low-scoring duel is in the air, because the Basques should be quite happy with a draw.
Why should they let the home-strong “Giallorossi” run into an open knife? Patience and tactics will decide the course of the game here.
My AS Rom Athletic Bilbao Tip:
The game between Roma and Bilbao could once again end in a thrilling 1-1 draw, as many indicators suggest. But if there is to be a winner, it could be Athletic this time.
The Basques seem stronger than usual this season, and I think they can get something out of the game at the Olimpico. In any case, Roma will have a hard time breaking down the visitors’ compact defense.
So that’s my AS Roma Athletic Bilbao betting tip: Double chance X2 & Under 2.5 goals.
