Alkmaar – Shakhtar Donetsk Tip Conference League, quarter-finals, second leg on Thursday, 16/04/2026 at 18:45 CET
There is a parallel universe out there that NASA has not yet discovered and in which the first leg between these two teams ended 0-0. Because only the ice-cold chance conversion of the Ukrainians turned an xG value of 0.71 into three goals!
This now requires one of the biggest comebacks in the still young Conference League history on the part of the Dutch. However, as part of my Alkmaar Shakhtar Donetsk AI prediction, I am confident that they will at least make it exciting!
Because the strong Dutch have not lost any of their last 15 European home games (13 wins, 2 draws) and will really throw everything into the balance! If they call up their full potential, it could actually still be something with the ticket for the semi-finals.
Alkmaar vs. Shakhtar Donetsk AI predictions:
I requested an independent Alkmaar Shakhtar Donetsk AI forecast from our IT department, which seemed to be able to read my mind. Because just like me, our data model recommends you almost only bets that think the big comeback of the Dutch is possible.
After all, it is at least “possible” if the Ukrainians behave too passively and every shot is spot on at Alkmaar. And Sporting have also recently achieved something similar in the Champions League against Bodö/Glimt!
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Alkmaar |
Draw |
Victory Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 48.9% |
25.7% |
25.4% |
However, victory Alkmaar with HC -1 is the pick that I think is “better”. After all, the ratio between risk and payoff is optimal here. Especially since providers like Oddset are willing to offer you a really nice odds of about 3.55.
Last but not least, there are Over 3.5 goals & both teams score at 2.95 if you expect fierce resistance from the guests – and that could actually happen on Thursday at the AFAS Stadium!
Especially since Shakhtar Donetsk have amazingly already managed to score at least two goals in every single one of their last five Conference League away games!
What you need to know about Alkmaar vs. Shakhtar Donetsk betting
- Donetsk offensive power: Shakhtar travel with an impressive away series; the Ukrainians have scored at least two goals in each of the last five away games in the Conference League, making them the overwhelming favourites after the 3-0 first-leg win.
- One-sided goal statistics: A high-scoring game on both sides is statistically unlikely; neither team has scored in any of AZ Alkmaar’s last six competitive matches, while only four of Shakhtar’s last eleven away games have done so.
- Test of patience until the break: The decision is often made late; in six of Alkmaar’s last eight Conference League games, more goals have been scored in the second half than in the first, while Shakhtar have yet to score a goal before the 30th minute on the road this season.
- Herculean task for Alkmaar: AZ need a small miracle at the AFAS Stadium to turn around the 0:3 deficit.
