Copa America, quarter-finals, Wednesday, 05.07.2024 at 03:00
While I continue to mourn the unexpectedly early and deserved elimination of my beloved “Squadra Azzurra” from Euro 2024, the Copa America offers me several suitable opportunities to distract myself with great bets.
In this Argentina Ecuador betting tip, I’m focusing on the first of a total of four quarter-final pairings.
In addition to a prediction – which I hope will be just as successful as my last one on this pairing – I will of course also address the question of whether Lionel Messi’s thigh injury has healed in time …
In the run-up to this Copa America, I already recommended an Argentina-Ecuador tip that fit like a glove.
Almost three weeks later, I am still of the opinion that the “Albiceleste” will struggle against this opponent.
A wafer-thin 1:0 therefore also seems to me to be the result on Wednesday that is most likely to light up brightly on the NRG Stadium scoreboard after the final whistle.
Precisely because Messi could be sitting out, I wouldn’t want to get overconfident with a Euro 2024 sports betting bonus at hand in the local or digital betting shop. Because the game promises to be tough again.
The forecast of the betting providers?
The oddsmakers are not only predicting the defending champions to be the clear favorites, but surprisingly even the clear favorites.
And it’s precisely with this formulation of the Argentina Ecuador odds that I have my problems. In any case, I wouldn’t advise you to go for the Argentina odds of just 1.45 on average.
Extra time, on the other hand, is a little more risky with odds of around 4.20, but the ratio to the payout promised by the bookmakers is right
Analysis: Argentina vs Ecuador
Argentina have not been so convincing against any opponent in the group stage that I would classify the low win odds that have been called for Wednesday as “fair”.
The Canadians were by no means without a chance in their 2-0 win in the opening game.
The subsequent 1:0 win against Chile, on the other hand, only came in the final minutes of the game, even if the last-minute winner was highly deserved due to the number of chances created.
However, it was in this game that Lionel Messi suffered an injury and was suddenly no longer in the starting eleven for the third group game against Peru (2:0).
Will the nation’s thigh hold up on Friday? Many rumors are currently swirling around this question in particular, but there is no certainty
After Enner Valencia’s red-worthy kung-fu kick in the opening game against Venezuela, things initially looked bad for the Ecuadorians.
However, the World Cup participants from the previous finals knew how to respond to this unexpected 2:1 defeat, at least in a way that allowed them to progress.
The four points from the subsequent games against Jamaica (3:1) and Mexico (0:0) were just enough to secure 2nd place
Analysis of odds
In our betting provider comparison, we not only analyze the bookmakers, but of course also their offers – in this case the Argentina Ecuador odds.
I have already mentioned the bookmakers’ overly high expectations regarding an Argentinian victory.
However, there is another aspect that the bookmakers wrongly consider unlikely – namely that of an uneventful match.
Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have failed to produce three goals. Three times the game even ended 1-0 in favor of the Argentinians.
The fact that the under 2.5 goal odds are still trading at a surprisingly high 1.75 is therefore an offer that I would be reluctant to pass up.
ARG – ECU: “Never change a winning tip “
Less than a month ago, there was already an international match between the two nations in which I was able to place a winning bet.
Basically, I stand by my assessment of the Argentina Ecuador prediction I made back then.
Here is an excerpt: “Anyway, in my Argentina Ecuador betting tip, I’m unashamedly predicting three possible final scores: 1-0, 2-0 and yes, even a 0-0.”
However, if Messi is indeed out next Wednesday, I would delete a possible 2-0 from the above result segment
Argentina – Ecuador: A brief review
It’s worth taking a closer look at the test match from around three weeks ago.
The xG value duel, which Argentina won 0.48 to 0.19 in mid-June, makes it unmistakably clear that scoring chances were already in short supply in this pairing.
Ecuador failed to score on that occasion, while Argentina made the most of one of their rare chances to score the only goal of the game through di Maria in the 40th minute …
Since I think a clean sheet is the most likely outcome, it would make no sense to recommend a goalscorer bet at this point.
However, if Lionel Messi does indeed take a break, the chances of the tournament’s best striker so far – who seems to score from all angles – scoring the potential 1-0 winner could increase dramatically: Lautaro Martinez!
The Serie A capocannoniere has just had a fantastic season and has also scored the most goals at the Copa America, four.
This means he has scored 80% of the Albiceleste’s goals at the tournament, making him the most suitable candidate for a goal bet, especially when the spotlight will be solely on him on Wednesday.
Ultimately, I wouldn’t advise you against a soccer bet of this kind, as Martinez’s odds of scoring a goal are a high 3.00 among bookmakers, which statistically outweighs the risk
My tip:
Lionel Messi could be missing, but that alone will not bring Argentina’s offensive machinery to a complete standstill.
Nevertheless, the defending champions will face a match in the quarter-finals that promises to be just as difficult as their last encounter with Ecuador just under three weeks ago.
Ecuador have only got this far thanks to a lot of luck, but they are very good at stalking the ball and keeping things tight at the back, so it promises to be a nerve-wracking test of patience for the “Albiceleste” on Wednesday.
My Argentina Ecuador betting tip is therefore: There will be less than 2.5 goals scored
