Copa America, Group A, Sunday, 30.06.2024 at 02:00
The group stage of the Copa America 2024 is drawing to a close. Argentina and Peru will face each other on Saturday night.
For the Albiceleste, this match is almost exclusively about finishing the preliminary round in style.
After two victories over Canada and Chile, the defending champions are already guaranteed a place in the last 16 of the competition
For Blanquirroja, on the other hand, it is still a matter of the last straw. With just one point to their name, the pressure is correspondingly high.
Elimination is therefore the most likely outcome for the Peruvians. After all, they need a win to reach the quarter-finals if the Canadians stumble at the same time.
Will this make for a thrilling match? My Argentina Peru betting tip doesn’t think so and expects a clear advantage for the world champions
The prediction of the betting providers?
The FIFA world number one will face the 32nd ranked team in the world. According to the World Cup qualifying group, there is currently no clearer duel in South America.
The Albiceleste are top of the table, while the Rojiblanca are bottom. Is this also reflected in the Argentina Peru odds? Not necessarily.
If the defending champions win by at least two goals, you will find odds of just over 2.00 at bookmaker Bet3000.
Analysis: Argentina vs Peru
Where does this relative generosity of the bookmakers come from? Surely the Argentinians have made the best possible start to the tournament and have nothing else to complain about?
In fact, they have won seven games in a row since the minor slip-up against Uruguay in November, when they lost 2-0.
But even before that, their form was not necessarily bad. After winning the World Cup final in December 2022, there were eight wins in immediate succession – all of them without conceding a goal
The Peruvians have also not conceded a goal very often recently. They have kept a clean sheet in four of their last six international matches.
However, they have also kept a clean sheet three times in their last four games. Only against El Salvador did coach Jorge Fossati’s team score a goal. So really only one…
Quota analysis
And honestly? I don’t believe that this record will change and that the Rojiblanca will suddenly discover scoring goals for themselves.
Betway also sees it that way, offering odds of around 2.00 if the underdogs score at least one goal.
However, if you are still determined to back the Peruvians, I recommend the double chance bets. Because in my opinion, that’s not enough if you don’t want to take too much risk.
You can get odds of over 2.70 at Tipwin Sportwetten if the Blanquirroja don’t lose
Rotating Argentina?
One reason why the bookmakers are still hesitant, despite the Albiceleste’s seemingly overwhelming individual superiority, could be load management.
A fashionable word in modern soccer that means nothing more than: We want to take it easy on our best players, but we need a term that sounds less arrogant.
Coach Lionel Scaloni is likely to give some of his stars a breather. In any case, Lautaro Martinez has earned his starting spot.
El Toro scored against Chile a few minutes before the final whistle and was also successful as a substitute against Canada. He is sure to start against Peru
How will Peru score?
If we just take a look at the provisional table for the South American qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, quite a few statisticians will lose faith.
After six match days, the Peruvians have actually only scored one goal. In the first five games, they scored nothing at all! Even Bolivia scored four times in the same period.
Up to now, coach Jorge Fossati has consistently divided the workload between the oldies up front. Gianluca Lapadula (34) alternated with Paolo Guerrero (40).
A team that mainly limits itself to counter-attacking and takes few risks in possession would benefit from some fresh blood
A lot of water will have to flow down the Río Apurímac for Peru’s dream of reaching the quarter-finals. Because they can no longer make it on their own.
They need a point or a win for Chile in the parallel game against Canada. However, this must not be too high, otherwise they would no longer be able to get past the Chileans
With a win for the Rojiblanca against the Albiceleste, however, it will be difficult enough. Peru have not won against Argentina since 1997.
During this period, they have not scored a goal in their last five games. However, the last relevant triumph came in the quarter-finals of the 1997 Copa América
My Argentina Peru tip:
You may have already figured it out: I don’t really believe in the Peruvian miracle. Their recent performances have simply been too bad for that.
Especially as Scaloni’s side are not known for their current poor form. The Albiceleste struggled against Chile, but ultimately did their job. The preliminary round final will not be a firework display, but the group win will not be in jeopardy.
My Argentina Peru tip is therefore: The Albiceleste won’t lose and Argentina will score at most
