EFL Cup, quarter-final, Wednesday, 18/12/2024 at 9:00 pm
The big question when making an EFL Cup prediction is how seriously the teams involved take the competition. My Arsenal Crystal Palace betting tip for Wednesday’s quarter-final was a real headache for me.
In the end, however, the top odds of 3.05 at Interwetten convinced me to give my blessing to the declared favorite, but also to trust the guests to score.
In other words: I’m betting on an Arsenal win and goals from both teams.
The situation is clear: Arsenal have not lost in eight competitive games (5 wins, 2 draws) and are in third place in the Premier League behind Liverpool and Chelsea.
Crystal Palace, on the other hand, coached by former Frankfurt manager Oliver Glasner, are fighting to avoid relegation. However, the Eagles have recently picked up.
In their last nine competitive games, they have only suffered one defeat and recorded four wins and four draws.
On the 12th matchday of the league season, Glasner’s team were still in 19th place, but four games later, Crystal Palace are in 15th place and have a four-point lead over the bottom of the table.
From the Crystal Palace Arsenal odds, the matter seems clear. The Gunners are the big favorites with win odds under 1.50, while a win for the Eagles is quoted at up to 7.50.
A draw is priced at 4.60, while even a double chance bet X2 reaches a respectable 2.75.
It is also worth taking a look at the sports betting advent calendar. Interwetten, for example, is also represented there.
But back to the sporting side of things. As mentioned, Arsenal are in good form and will probably live up to their role as favorites.
Although they have recently had two rather disappointing draws in the Premier League against Everton and Fulham, the Gunners are clearly much stronger than their opponents.
This is shown, for example, by a look at the offense: the Gunners score an average of exactly 2 goals per competitive game and have so far conceded only 18 goals in 24 games, not even one per appearance.
By comparison, Crystal Palace are doing significantly worse, with an average of 1.31 goals scored per competitive game. Defensively, the Eagles are far from being a shooting gallery; 23 goals conceded in 19 games (1.21 per game) is not too bad.
But the Gunners face a particularly high hurdle at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal have yet to lose at home in any competition this year and are undefeated in their last 15 home games across all seasons.
Crystal Palace have improved significantly recently, but I doubt whether that will be enough for a draw or even a win in the London derby on Wednesday.
However, the Eagles have already been able to beat a stronger opponent away from home in the EFL Cup. Glasner’s team beat Aston Villa 2-1 in somewhat of a surprise.
Before that, there was also a 2-1 away win at Queens Park Rangers and a commanding 4-0 home win over Norwich.
While Palace have already knocked a Premier League club out of the competition in Aston Villa, the Gunners’ previous opponents were both lower-league. Third division side Bolton were dispatched 5-1, and Championship club Preston North End were beaten 3-0.
Mikael Arteta’s side face their toughest challenge yet in the second most important English cup competition and the Eagles have been warned.
However, the head-to-head speaks clearly in favor of the Gunners, because the victories of Crystal Palace against Arsenal can almost be counted on one hand. Palace have only won six of a total of 55 competitive duels since 1934.
Arsenal have won 33 (16 draws), with the last four in a row.
Summary: The Carabao Cup quarter-final between the Gunners and the Eagles promises to be a fascinating clash. Arsenal have lost some form recently, while the visitors have recovered well after a poor start to the season.
Nevertheless, I expect a home win for the Arteta team, who are extremely strong at home, although Palace will certainly not give in without a fight. Much will depend on the personnel that both coaches field on Wednesday before the particularly stressful Christmas period.
Regardless of the starting lineup, my Arsenal Crystal Palace prediction is: home win and both teams to score
