Arsenal – Manchester City betting tip, prediction & odds 02/02/2025

Premier League 24th matchday, Sunday, 02/02/2025 at 5:30 PM

Arsenal has not been defeated at the Emirates Stadium this Premier League season (7W, 4D). I won’t be sawing on the Gunners’ dominant streak in the Arsenal Manchester City betting tip.

The Citizens are no longer the dominant team of past seasons, even if they have found their form again after Christmas and have not been beaten in the English top flight.

The opening of the away table is causing deep pain in the stomachs of the Skyblues fans. Seven Premier League teams have collected more away points than the reigning champions (18 out of 12 games) this season.

Arsenal (47 points) has a much better chance of winning the league than Manchester City (41 points) and seems to be the more stable team this season.

For me, the approach in the Arsenal Manchester City betting tip is pretty clear. At Interwetten, I play odds of 1.87 for a “double chance 1X & under 3.5 goals”.

The betting providers’ prediction?

Arsenal have not lost to Manchester City in their last four competitive matches. The last meeting at the Emirates Stadium ended with a 1-0 win for the Gunners.

The bookmakers are giving Arsenal slightly higher odds of winning this clash and are offering 2.10 times the winnings in their sports betting apps if the team in second place in the table beats the Citizens.

A football bet on a three-pointer for the Skyblues has rarely been more valuable than on this matchday. With odds of up to 3.80, Pep Guardiola and his team are the clear underdogs in this clash.

Manchester City has lost the aura of the invincible super team and is more vulnerable than ever before under Pep Guardiola this season.

The reigning champions have long since lost their status as the best Premier League offense. In the comparison of expected goals, the Citizens (44.1 xG) had to let three other teams (Liverpool, Chelsea, Bournemouth) go ahead of them.

However, their positioning in the “expected goals against” category is much worse. There, Guardiola’s selection takes twelfth place (33.8 xGA) and is in close proximity to their city rivals (34.6 xGA).

Away from home, the Citizens have often been made to face up to their weaknesses quite bluntly this season. Only five wins from twelve away appearances show how vulnerable ManCity are in every away game.

At the Emirates Stadium, the reigning champions will face one of the two strongest home teams in the English top flight. Apart from Arsenal, no Premier League team has managed to avoid a home defeat this season.

Manchester City have avoided defeat in their last three consecutive away appearances (2W, 1D), but have only won two of their previous eight PL away games. The Skyblues got the three points against two of the four weakest PL teams (Ipswich Town, Leicester City).

Odds Analysis

The Citizens’ recent crisis of meaning and results is likely to have reached every football fan. In the final third, there was a lack of creative solutions at times. At the same time, the players made far too many individual mistakes when working against the ball.

No team in the top seven has conceded more goals than Guardiola’s side (30). If you add this figure to the expected goals against (33.8 xGA), the Citizens have actually been lucky.

Arsenal have conceded significantly fewer goals (21) and are on a similar level to the reigning champions in attack. The Gunners (44) are only three goals behind the Skyblues (47).

For me, this Interwetten freebet therefore looks like the perfect offer to play at odds of 2.05 on an “Arsenal win”.

Nobody takes the Emirates Stadium

Only Liverpool (26) secured more points in their own stadium than the Gunners (25). However, in contrast to Arsenal, the league leaders have already lost a game in their own arena.

During my research, it became increasingly clear: Arsenal is actually the best home team in the current Premier League season.

No other PL team has so far scored more expected goals at home than the north Londoners (26.44 xG). But their defense is almost more impressive.

Of all 20 English first division teams, the team in second place is the only one to have conceded fewer than ten expected goals at home (8.21 xGA).

In open play, Arteta’s side regularly put a tight defense in front of their own goal at the Emirates Stadium, allowing only three goals in total – the best record!

Quality over quantity

When digging through the thicket of numbers, I noticed the different quality of these two top teams when working against the ball.

At first, I was a little surprised. Manchester City (231) have seen fewer shots on their goal than Arsenal (240). Together, the reigning champions and the runners-up are among the three strongest teams in this category.

However, a drastic difference arises when comparing the expected goals conceded. Manchester City (33.8 xGA) allowed the competition significantly more valuable opportunities than the Gunners (20.6 xGA).

There is one value that shows this difference in quality extremely well. Manchester City conceded the most expected goals per shot in the league (0.15 xGA), while Arsenal, along with a few other PL teams, is at the top (0.09 xGA/shot).

When applied to the offensive department of the two teams, the difference is significantly smaller, but here too Arsenal (0.12 xG/shot) is listed above the Skyblues (0.11 xG/shot).

One of Arsenal’s greatest strengths is offensive set pieces. In the league, Mikel Arteta’s side scored more goals from set pieces (12) than any other team managed by their respective coaches.

This is covered by the most expected goals after a set piece (11.83 xG). It’s a crucial quality that has often helped Arsenal out of trouble in previous duels with Manchester City.

Five of the last ten goals that Manchester City have conceded in the Premier League against the Gunners have come from a corner taken by the North Londoners.

In addition, Arsenal are much less dependent on the form of one attacker. No other PL team has more different goal scorers this season than the Gunners (14).

Pep Guardiola’s team quickly ran into trouble as soon as Erling Haaland (18 goals) had a bad day.

My tip:

The Citizens’ rising form gives this clash a little more spice than we thought a few weeks ago.

However, Arsenal are in phenomenal form themselves, having not been beaten in 13 league games and not having suffered a defeat at home.

This season, I see Arsenal as being better than the Citizens and rule out the Gunners losing at home to Guardiola’s team.

My Arsenal Manchester City betting tip: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals!

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