Champions League, semi-final, first leg, Tuesday, 29.04.2025 at 21:00
16 years the Gunners fans had to wait for this moment, now it’s finally time again: Their club reaches for the final of the premier class! In my Arsenal PSG betting tip, I have two teams going into this semi-final with different strengths and weaknesses.
The Londoners enjoy home advantage first. A disadvantage? Not necessarily, as they also had to play at home first in the quarter-final against Real Madrid. The English can play home games this season, as Paris already found out during the group stage.
Accordingly, I have also decided to use the “double chance 1X” here. As Arsenal have only failed to keep a clean sheet in one home match this CL season, I’m also adding “Under 3.5 goals” to the tip.
Both clubs have only reached the final of the Champions League once and have never won the title. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a lot of nervousness on both sides.
Arsenal and Paris definitely deserve this semi-final. And whoever knocks Real Madrid, the absolute giants of the premier class, out of the competition by such a clear margin should have no fear of facing the stars from Paris.
The bookmaker’s forecast
Five wins and a draw, Arsenal FC have absolutely convinced me in their home games this season. So it’s only logical that our PayPal bookmakers see the Londoners ahead with odds of 2.15.
On the other hand, Paris go into the match with average odds of 3.40. The French side have already lost three times away from home, most recently 3-2 at Aston Villa. Of course, a defeat would not exactly improve the starting position for the second leg.
A draw would certainly not be the desired result for either team. Interestingly, Arsenal and PSG have only drawn three times between them. For a game without a winner, you can take a classic 3.50 with the bookies.
AI prediction Arsenal vs PSG: ChatGPT
How do you imagine this duel at ChatGPT, do the performances from the previous competition flow into it? The three betting suggestions are quite interesting, although I don’t necessarily agree with all of them.
The result bet 2:1 was spit out to me as a high risk bet. If Arsenal were to win, I would also go for a narrow victory. But: Due to their defensive strength, I would go for a 1:0.
In addition, the AI sees good chances for a win for the home side. Given that the Londoners are producing strong results at home and rarely lose to teams from France, I can well imagine a home win.
The “Both teams to score” completes the AI’s field of suggestions. A sure-fire winner? Not necessarily. Arsenal hardly concede any goals at home in the CL, and they also kept a clean sheet in the 2-0 win against PSG in the preliminary round. Therefore, a little skepticism is definitely allowed here.
Analysis: Arsenal vs PSG
Seven years without a Champions League title, a single appearance in the quarter-finals since 2010 – the last few seasons on the international stage have been anything but successful for Arsenal FC.
After narrowly losing out to FC Bayern last season, the Gunners have now gone one better by reaching the last four. Now, of course, they are aiming for the second final in the club’s history.
In 2006, shortly before the World Cup in Germany, Jens Lehmann was the tragic hero who saw red early on. In the end, Arsenal lost 1:0 to FC Barcelona. The Londoners are two games away from another final.
Hands on heart: How many of you expected Arsenal to give Real Madrid such a lesson in the quarter-finals? The 3-0 win in the first leg was followed by a 2-1 victory at the Bernabeu, leaving the Whites without a chance.
When you consider that the Gunners were without top striker Kai Havertz, that makes the victories even more valuable. One goal conceded against Real speaks volumes for a strong defense
Odds Analysis
It’s incredibly difficult to predict how both teams will go into this clash. I can also imagine a 0-0 draw. However, due to their strong defensive performances, I think Arsenal are more likely to score the first goal of the game. I recommend taking a look at Bwin.
The odds there are 1.75, and the Bwin voucher will also make you happy. New customers can double their deposit up to 100 euros. At the same time, I still think a 0:0 at the break is realistic, with odds of 2.80.
The bet “PSG won’t score in half-time 1” has odds of 1.57 at Betano. This bet comes into question for me simply because Arsenal only conceded one goal at home in the first half.
Arsenal are hard to beat
The total number of goals conceded was seven, only two at home. And let’s be honest: the two goals conceded in the 2:2 draw against Feyenoord Rotterdam are easy to get over. The first leg had been a 7:1 victory, so the round of 16 was decided early.
2:0 against PSG, 1:0 against Donetsk, 3:0 against Monaco, 2:2 against Eindhoven and 3:0 against Real Madrid – the fans who made their way to the Emirates Stadium were spoiled this season.
Can they get over the fact that only three of their last nine Premier League games have ended in victory? The CL place is currently not in doubt, so the slip-ups have not changed the table picture.
France doesn’t scare the Gunners!
Perhaps the Londoners are now simply concentrating more on being successful in the Champions League. The team has been unbeaten in eight CL matches, only in the 2005/06 season was the streak even longer with twelve matches.
It should not be a bad omen that a club from France awaits in the current semi-final. Arsenal have played Ligue 1 teams 29 times in the past. Defeats? Only four
With two wins and three draws, Arsenal are also completely unbeaten against Paris. The visitors will therefore have their work cut out for them, as they were lucky to reach this semi-final in the first place.
They were 3-1 up against Aston Villa after game one, so they could just about afford to lose the second leg 3-2. The game should not have lasted much longer, otherwise the English side might have been successful in their comeback.
The Parisians had already lost one of the two matches in the previous round, 0:1 and 5:1 on penalties, with Liverpool FC on the other side. For the third time in a row, they now face a team from the island.
Problematic could be: Five of the last six CL matches on English soil have been lost. Paris were knocked out in the semi-finals of the top flight in 2023/24, when BVB caused the knockout.
Also interesting: PSG failed to reach the semi-finals three times (1994/95, 2021/22 and 2023/24). What they have in common is that they always lost both games, scoring just one goal in those six matches.
In the event that no goal can be scored tonight either, you can secure odds of 2.87 at Merkur Bets. At the same time, a win to nil for the Gunners brings odds of 3.50.
Incidentally, the last league game against Nice showed just how much PSG value the Champions League. The 3-1 defeat was their first ever defeat of the season and the title was out of their grasp anyway.
My Arsenal PSG tip:
Arsenal or Paris, who has a better chance of reaching the final? If you believe the bookmakers, the French are ahead in terms of progression. In my favor, however, it’s Arsenal FC that is recommended.
The Gunners knocked Real Madrid out of the competition with aplomb and have kept a clean sheet in five of their six home games. The visitors from the French capital did not look quite so confident.
Against Liverpool, they were knocked out on penalties, and against Aston Villa, they almost had to play extra time. That ultimately leads me to recommend the following tip:
With a maximum of 3.5 goals, Arsenal will not lose!
