Serie A, Friday, 17/01/2025 at 20:45
When Albert Gudmundsson left Liguria at the beginning of the season to try his luck in the cradle of the Renaissance, I didn’t think that Genoa would still be in the secure middle of the table at the beginning of the 2025 calendar year.
But the “Grifoni” have reinvented themselves to a certain extent since then. According to my AS Roma Genoa betting tip, they will keep a clean sheet for a long time against the capital city side on Friday before losing the game, if at all.
A point is sometimes much better than none, as Roma impressively demonstrated just a few days ago. Dovbyk scored the decisive 2:2 against Bologna in the 98th minute, which was by no means unimportant!
This draw was actually very important, because it prevented the “Giallorossi” from allowing Bologna to pull seven points ahead in the table – instead, the gap is now “only” five points.
Under legendary coach Ranieri, who continues to work to rectify the mistakes of his two predecessors, Roma as a unit is now significantly stronger than it was a few months ago.
Four games unbeaten in a row (2 wins, 2 draws) – the last time they managed that was under Juric between the 3rd and 6th matchdays of the Serie A season, before things slowly but surely went downhill.
Decisive for this upswing is not only Ranieri’s tactical skill, but also the recovered Dybala, who, together with Dovbyk, is running in an effective two-man attack. The duo ensures that the Romans are now much more dangerous offensively.
But is that enough to beat the “Grifoni” at the Olimpico on Friday? According to my AS Roma Genoa betting tip, this would at least be possible!
That’s because the Romans’ back three with Hummels in charge is now stable, and the home record also speaks in favor of the capital club: they have won all of their last five competitive matches at home.
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Will the home team get a win under its belt? Absolutely! After all, the Romans have won each of their last seven home games against Italian teams that are not in the Champions League group stage this season.
And being unbeaten by CFC at home since 1990 is an incredible streak that is unlikely to be broken, especially in their current form.
It was actually in 1990 – just before a World Cup – that the “Giallorossi” last lost at the Olimpico against the “Rossoblù”. Strictly speaking, 36 years before the upcoming 2026 World Cup in North America!
Patrick Vieira was not only an excellent player, but is increasingly turning out to be a coach with a bright future ahead of him.
His team managed to secure a 1-0 win against Parma, which must have driven their opponents to despair.
The newly promoted team had enormous problems in creating chances, as evidenced by an abysmal xG value of 0.30.
Lecce and Empoli strikers’ attacking department didn’t fare much better in their respective 0-0 and 1-2 defeats against Genoa!
Let’s take a look at this statistic: Genoa has kept five clean sheets in the last seven matchdays.
During this extremely successful period, which included three clean sheets, even league leaders Napoli only just managed to get the better of them, winning 2-1.
It goes without saying that I checked out the under/over odds first in the handy Merkur Bets app.
And now for a statistical killer argument in favor of my AS Roma Genoa tip.
Including the 1-1 from the first leg, six of the last seven competitive matches have not produced three or more goals.
It makes sense that an under 2.5 goals bet at odds of around 1.75 is coming into focus for me.
Furthermore, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the 0-0 half-time result bet with a current win multiplier of 2.8x is also not to be scoffed at.
Especially if you use the NEO.bet free bet. Because then you can pass on the betting risk to the bookmaker licensed in Germany.
Finally, do you want to hear a very precise AS Roma Genoa tip about what the possible final result could be?
As it has been in three of the last four meetings at the Olimpico: 1-0 to the hosts. The other game, incidentally, ended in a goalless draw.
So it should be clear why I am happy to accept the under 2.5 goals quote for this encounter – especially given the strong performances of the Genoa defense since December.
My AS Roma Genoa prediction: There will be no three goals
