Europa League, Thursday, 01.05.2025 at 21:00
The semi-final in the Europa League is on the agenda. Winning the title would be particularly important for the visitors. Because for the Red Devils, it is the last chance to qualify for next year’s Champions League, to be in the international competition at all!
However, their opponents are tough. Nevertheless, I think they can at least score an away goal in the first match.
And with that, I already have the right odds for my Athletic Bilbao Manchester United betting tip, limit the visitors’ goals to 1-3 at Bet365 for even better overall odds!
Only 39 points, no wins from the last five games, the Premier League is so over for Manchester. With four games to go, they are only 14th in the table.
If the Championship promotion contenders hadn’t struggled so much, it would even have been a close call to avoid relegation. They are just three points off 17th place. However, I am not overrating the five games without a win.
ManU have known for several weeks that the European Cup can no longer be reached via the league and that mid-table is the maximum.
The bookmakers’ forecast
The weak performances naturally have an impact on the odds. Bilbao have 2.00 odds in the first duel, United are given 3.75. Just below that, Winamax and Co. have 3.50 for the draw.
Based purely on the league performances, we should be heading towards a home win or “double chance 1X” here, but the supposed underdogs in the Basque Country are showing different faces this season and I’ve done well with the goal bets on ManU games so far.
AI prediction Athletic Bilbao vs. Manchester United: ChatGPT
The AI also rates the home win as more realistic, has suggested the bet that Bilbao will score the first goal as “low risk” odds. A win for the hosts is the middle option.
But in the high odds section, the artificial intelligence changes its mind and selects “double chance X2” with over 2.5 goals. This means that, according to ChatGPT, it is more likely to be a narrow, low-scoring victory for Athletic. If it does escalate, however, it will be at least a draw.
The club is playing a really good season, is heading for Champions League qualification in La Liga, has only lost one of its last ten games and has also presented itself almost exclusively from the superior side in the Europa League.
Consistency that Manchester has completely lacked. Even with esteemed coach Ruben Amorim, the team has not found its feet. They signed the ex-Sporting head coach in the middle of the season.
Analysis: Athletic Bilbao v Manchester United
And their disastrous season was almost sealed when Lyon went two goals ahead in extra time in the quarter-final second leg. But then came the spectacular comeback, with the Red Devils turning the result on its head within seven minutes.
With an aggregate score (7:6) reminiscent of an NFL match between two weak offensives, they ultimately booked their place in the semi-finals, having previously beaten Real Sociedad. I wrote a prediction for each of the two matches against Bilbao’s league rivals.
I switched from the goal of both teams in the second leg to the easy Sociedad goal in the reunion, landing a direct hit both times. I then scored my betting hat-trick with the “Both teams to score” tip for the first leg against Lyon (2:2).
With this run, I’m optimistic of getting the right odds again. In addition to the goal from both teams (1.90), I’m particularly interested in the Manchester goal, which is still in a decent range at 1.50.
Odds Analysis
Since I’m not expecting a four-pack against the home-strong Basques, I’ll add the small odds for the bet “United under 3.5 goals”, which will move the odds up a bit, without really having more risk.
If you want to bet on 1-2 Manchester goals instead of 1-3, you get 1.70, also a great bet. However, I want to hedge my bets at least for the treble. United’s star players know how much is at stake here!
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Good odds, a huge selection and a €20 free bet with no deposit, to name just a few key facts about the official Europa League partner.
Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United odds: Bilbao have won all of their EL home games
If I had to choose in the 1X2 market, I would prefer the “1X” despite my goal bet. If you combine both events, you can pick up a whopping 2.32 odds, which would be something for the freebet.
First and foremost, I want to give you as many winning tips as possible at odds above the 1.50 mark and therefore prefer to hedge with the single Manchester goal, so I only need one team to score.
Bilbao is really strong at home. In the Europa League, the club is the only one to have won all four matches at home and followed that up with two more victories in the round of 16 and quarter-finals.
As a top 8 team, Bilbao was able to skip the play-off round like Manchester. Their home strength was also evident in the league, with only Atletico Madrid managing one defeat in 17 games. Apart from the Colchoneros, only Real and Barca have bagged more points at home.
With a meagre ten goals conceded, the team even set a new record!
Take a high goal tally with you, why not?
Athletic Bilbao and Manchester United have already faced each other in two seasons of international competition. In 1956/57, the teams faced off in the quarter-finals of the Champions League’s predecessor competition, the European Champions Cup, with ManU coming out on top.
This was the second ever staging of the competition, in which Manchester was defeated one round later by the eventual tournament winners Real. They went on to face Bilbao around 50 years later in the Europa League round of 16.
The Spaniards, on the other hand, were able to hold their own, celebrating a 3-2 away win in 2012/13 and adding a 2-1 victory in the reunion. Will it continue like this in terms of goals? I wouldn’t even rule it out.
But the bookmakers don’t expect a goalfest. Even for “Over 1.5 goals” we get a 1.37. The stake is more than doubled for at least three goals, and with the goal from both teams added together we get a 2.50.
However, Manchester’s last three EL games have been tough. In addition, Lisando Martinez, an important man in central defense, is still missing. The absence massively weakens the defense.
Incidentally, Manchester have only kept a clean sheet twice in their last 17 games, in the Manchester derby (0-0) and against Leicester (3-0). Bilbao, meanwhile, have conceded two goals in their last eight appearances.
My Athletic Bilbao Manchester United tip:
Bilbao are having a really strong season and are a force, especially at home. No La Liga team has let in fewer balls at home, and the Basques have even won all six games in the Europa League. Nevertheless, I don’t think the clean sheet will hold up against Manchester.
The Red Devils are determined to win the title and make their mark in the first match. Defending is not their core discipline this season anyway.
However, I’m not expecting a firework display. Incidentally, Bilbao have only let in more than three goals in one game this season, which is why I’m adding an under-goal rate to my ManU goal bet.
1-3 Manchester goals!
