Copa do Brasil, Quarterfinals, Thursday, 12.09.2024 at 02:30 PM
What the DFB Cup is to us, the Copa do Brasil is to the common Brazilian soccer fan, who pays as much attention to it as he does to the best sports betting bonus on the internet.
This Thursday, my focus has shifted to a match for which I have placed a promising Athletico-PR Vasco betting tip. Because the hosts are currently giving opposing strikers a lot of space
In the Copa do Brasil, “El Paraense” once again face a tricky task, even if the bookmakers try to tell you otherwise.
After a promising start in the first leg, the defensive problems quickly became apparent, which completely turned the tide and on which my present Athletico-PR Vasco tip is also based.
The only positive news for all fans of the “Furacão” is that they have yet to concede a goal at home in this competition.
But will this statistical peculiarity be enough to make me forget my many negative impressions of the 2-1 defeat against Vasco? Probably not!
Athletico PR have a mixed record at this stage of the tournament. This aspect alone could be enough for superstitious sports betting fans to withdraw their faith in the hosts …
After all, they have failed to reach the quarter-finals every time in the last three years, most recently twice against Flamengo. And always after disappointing first legs, coincidence?
But, remember, El Paraense have historically always been reliable at home against Vasco – 13 home games without defeat and a 1-0 win in the last league game speak for themselves
Vasco da Gama, on the other hand, are the stalwarts of Brazilian soccer. After just scraping through in the first leg, they have put together a run that should not be underestimated and speaks volumes for their fighting spirit.
Five games in a row without defeat despite trailing at one stage and an eight-game run of decent results is truly impressive (5 wins, 3 draws).
However, you should know that they have not won in Curitiba since 2007. But with the momentum they now seem to have, anything is still possible on Thursday
Athletico PR are the clear favorites on the betting markets. With odds of 1.75, the bookmakers estimate their chances of winning at around 57% without tax. So, if you want to bet on a home win, you get a little more than half of your stake on top.
A draw is more in the medium risk range at 3.50, which corresponds to a probability of around 29%. It is an option that promises you a nice payout if you also speculate on a close game.
However, Vasco da Gama is clearly the underdog with an average of 4.50. The bookmakers see their chances of victory at around 22%, which is surprisingly low …
Home advantage seems to play a major role in this match. Of the last 13 head-to-head meetings, the visiting team has only won once. Athletico PR is therefore a force at home.
Nevertheless, you should consider the “Double chance X2” option in this case. This bet protects you both in the event of a draw and a win for Vasco da Gama, who are perceived to be stronger. With odds of 1.98, you get a solid payout amount
The Athletico PR Vasco da Gama odds for many goals are also interesting.
Keep in mind: Athletico have always conceded two goals in their last seven games against Brazilian teams. So “Vasco to score over 1.5 goals” could be a worthwhile option here. In any case, the odds of 3.75 offer plenty of value.
If you believe in a tight game and want to take a little more risk, then this bet could increase your stake considerably. Whether you want to play it safe or go for the big win – there’s something to suit every strategy on the betting apps!
Athletico PR will have to make do without Fernandinho in this crucial match. The former Manchester City captain will be out for a few more weeks with a muscle injury. That is a real blow for the team, which relies on his experience and composure in midfield.
Lucas Di Yorio will also be missing after his red card in the first leg. Another important player who will not be on the pitch in the second leg. After all, Christian was able to score early for Athletico in the first leg, which shows that they can still be dangerous without Di Yorio
The situation at Vasco da Gama doesn’t look rosy either. Paulinho and Guilherme Estrella are both struggling with knee injuries and are unlikely to be fit in time. Then there is Adson, who still needs time to recover after breaking his leg. All of this noticeably weakens Vasco.
Joao Victor also has to miss out due to a red card. Nevertheless, Vasco showed in the first leg that they will not give up.
Jose Luis Rodriguez equalized late on and Hugo Moura made it all clear in stoppage time. However, these failures could put them to the test.
Conclusion: In my Athletico PR Vasco da Gama prediction, I’m confidently backing the visiting team to score over 1.5 goals and qualify for the semi-finals.
After all, Vasco have already won the first leg by a narrow 2-1 margin and will do everything in their power to defend this advantage in the second leg. The team has recently shown that it is ruthless and effective in the decisive moments.
Athletico PR, on the other hand, are going through a difficult phase. They have regularly conceded several goals per game for months now, which is not a good sign for the hosts.
Athletico are also missing key players such as Fernandinho, which further impairs their defensive stability. With the absences and the current form curve, it will be difficult to control Vasco’s pressure
My tip: Vasco go up and score over 1.5 goals!
