La Liga, Matchday 37 on Sunday, 18.05.2025 at 19:00
There’s no place like home. This mantra is not only true for Atletico Madrid this season. After their weak performance in the away game against Osasuna (0-2), the Rojiblancos can redeem themselves in my Atletico Madrid vs. Betis Sevilla betting tip.
The Colchoneros are now guaranteed a place in the Champions League following their previous home game against Real Sociedad (4-0). My recommendation is odds of 1.58 for “Atletico Madrid to score over 1.5 goals” at Bet365.
It is by no means the best second half of the season in the club’s history, but Atletico Madrid will still be participating in the Champions League next season.
Diego Simeone’s team, on the other hand, lost their chance at the title long before their city rivals. However, according to Winamax, their current form should be enough for a win in their last home game of the season.
Atletico are favored against Betis Sevilla with odds of just under 2.00. The history of this fixture also supports a bet on a Rojiblancos victory.
Diego Simeone and his team have won their last six home games against the Verbidlancos – five of them without conceding a goal.
A home win without conceding a goal is also possible on matchday 37. The home side has the best expected defense in the Spanish Primera Division (32.7 xGA).
In addition, their current form at home is good. In front of their own fans, Atleti has won its last three home games in a row with a total score of 11-2.
The third-placed team prefers to unleash its full potential at its home ground, the Metropolitano. Around 63 percent of Simeone’s team’s goals this season have been scored at home.
Across the league, only three teams have more expected goals than Atleti (57.8 xG). What’s special is the distribution: the Rojiblancos have scored almost two-thirds of these expected goals at home.
Betis Sevilla, unlike the Rojiblancos, still need more points. Only two wins from their remaining two league games, combined with slip-ups from their rivals Villarreal, will keep their Champions League hopes alive.
The visitors shared the points in their last two league games against two direct rivals (2-2 vs. Rayo Vallecano, 1-1 vs. Osasuna).
The Verdiblancos’ defense has not been particularly convincing in recent outings. Manuel Pellegrini has seen his team concede five goals in their previous three games.
These figures fit in with the overall picture of Betis’ strengths and weaknesses. In a league comparison of expected goals conceded, the visitors are only in 13th place (46.0 xGA).
Whether their attacking qualities will be enough to secure a win against the best defense in the Spanish Primera Division is open to debate.
Atletico Madrid have kept 56 percent of their home games clean. Another strength of Simeone’s team is the players on the bench. The Rojiblancos have conceded the most goals in the league from substitutes (19, like Barcelona).
Many of these goals have come from Alexander Sörloth. The former Leipzig player has already scored 17 goals this season (4th), despite coming off the bench on several occasions.
Alongside him, Julian Alvarez (15 goals this season) is a guarantee of goal-scoring threat. Antoine Griezmann is also still creating great chances in attack in his twilight years (14 points).
However, Sörloth started the last home game and strengthened his case for further starts with the earliest and fastest hat-trick in La Liga history.
No one should be blinded by the Rojiblancos’ sometimes weak away performances. Atleti have only lost one La Liga game at home this season.
My Atletico Madrid vs. Betis Sevilla prediction is: Atletico Madrid to score over 1.5 goals.
