Copa Libertadores 2024, round of 16, second leg, Wednesday, 21.08.2024 at 02:30
In Belo Horizonte, it will be decided on Wednesday whether Atletico Mineiro will soon be able to represent Brazil in the quarter-finals of the Copa Libertadores. That’s when the second leg against the Argentinians takes place!
In my Atletico-MG San Lorenzo prediction, I suspect that we will see a narrow 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts. At the same time, I’ll also outline an alternative betting scenario should the game end 0-0 or 1-1 again
Almost a week ago, I was able to serve you a successful Atletico-MG San Lorenzo betting tip, in which I could literally smell a 1-1 draw brewing.
After all, the Argentine’s defensive center was acutely weakened. San Lorenzo will still have to do without Mauel Insaurralde and Gaston Hernandez, while Malcolm Braida and Eric Remedi are also likely to miss the second leg.
All in all, San Lorenzo can even be happy to have kept the door to the quarter-finals open with the draw. However, they will have to win more than just 29% possession at the MRV Arena if they want to score any goals worth mentioning in the long term.
One week later, I expect Atlético-MG to find it easier to create attacking chances, especially as their top scorer in Serie A in pre-season, Hulk, is likely to be back.
Although the muscular superstar was absent from both the first leg and the 1-1 draw in the league against Cuiabá at the weekend, the medical department expects him to make his comeback for the “Rubi-Negro” on Wednesday.
What will also play into Atlético Mineiro’s hands is undoubtedly their home strength. In fact, I dare say that San Lorenzo have already squandered their best chance of reaching the quarter-finals in the first leg
You had to be called Flamengo or Palmeiras this season to celebrate a competitive win at the MRV Arena.
The Rubro-Negro can even look back on three home wins in a row in this year’s Copa Libertadores group stage – against Rosario Central (2:1), Peñarol (3:2) and most recently Caracas (4:0).
Consequently, I’m leaning towards a simple home win bet in the Sunmaker app, possibly without an additional option, as the traditional Atlético-MG San Lorenzo odds already satisfy me almost completely.
It is also difficult to estimate whether Atlético-MG will end up 1-0 or 3-1 ahead – but it is fair to say that they will be ahead, regardless of the final score.
San Lorenzo tend to get stuck in at the back in away games. But after the meagre first leg result, that will only be possible to a limited extent, unless they want to speculate on extra time from the outset.
Please note: The Argentinians have not scored a single goal in three away games in the Copa Libertadores 2024 at Palmeiras (0-0), Liverpool (0-1) and Independiente del Valle (0-2), which should be taken into account in your own considerations
San Lorenzo had little to play for in the first leg and can count themselves lucky that Alexis Cuello’s 17th-minute finish found its way into the Brazilian goal and turned the game on its head.
This was just one of two shots on goal by San Lorenzo in this match, which is why it would not be unreasonable to expect them to make another competitive visit to the MRV Arena after 2018 without scoring.
In the 2018 season, the Argentinians already visited Atlético-MG as part of the Copa Sudamericana without scoring a goal (0:0).
Of course, I was impressed by the goalless draw against Palmeiras in the group stage, as this can serve as proof that San Lorenzo can successfully stonewall even against Brazilian footballing superpowers.
Therefore, I cannot rule out another 0-0 draw against Atlético-MG on Wednesday in the second leg, especially if, contrary to expectations, Hulk does indeed need another week to fully recover from his calf injury.
Therefore, if I were you, I would choose one of the following two scenarios with the help of a hefty odds boost, depending on whether you think the Brazilians will score or not: Double chance 1X & Under 2.5 goals or alternatively Home win & Under 1.5 goals.
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Conclusion: Atlético-MG host San Lorenzo in the second leg after the Argentinians only scored a goal by luck in the first leg.
San Lorenzo have not scored a single goal away from home in the Copa Libertadores so far, but managed to hold Palmeiras to a 0-0 draw.
Although Atlético-MG are favorites, their guest could once again be defensively strong, especially if Hulk is not yet fully recovered.
A bet on a narrow home win or a low-scoring game would therefore make sense.
In the end, my personal choice is an Atletico-MG San Lorenzo bet of the following type: Home win & Under 3.5 goals
