Copa Libertadores 2024, Wednesday, 21.08.2024 at 00:00
The UEFA Champions League will find its final participants for the group stage this week, but its South American counterpart, the Copa Libertadores, has already reached the round of 16
In my Fluminense Gremio betting tip, I’ll be looking at a very interesting second leg of the round of 16, in which one team is slightly ahead. I will now tell you what motivates me to place the “Double Chance X2” bet
The defending champions are on the brink of elimination! Fluminense Rio de Janeiro won the 2023 Copa Libertadores by beating Boca Juniors 2:1 after extra time, but hopefully they didn’t celebrate too much.
This season, after a very successful group stage, they face the threat of elimination against their fearsome opponents. But first things first. The Brazilians found themselves in a constellation with Alianza Lima, Colo-Colo and Cerro Porteno
Three wins and two draws meant that the team quickly qualified for the knockout phase. At the same time, however, I also noticed that the successes were on very shaky ground.
Twice 2:1, plus a 1:0 and a 3:2, it wouldn’t have taken much for the points haul to have been far lower. And so I’m not really surprised that the result of the first round of 16 is also in this category:
Fluminense had taken the lead against Gremio Porto Alegre, but within a few minutes they immediately conceded two goals from two set-pieces, one of which was a penalty, to make it 2-1.
Now they will have to play at home if they are to progress. A decisive advantage? Could well be, after all, all three matches at home in the group stage were won with the obligatory extra goal.
The second leg is unlikely to be unusually high-scoring, at least if we take the Brazilian league as a reference. Goals from the last twelve games? A measly 14!
Three times there were two, the other times the figure didn’t even exceed 1.5. Perhaps Fluminense are saving something for the Copa, given their history against Gremio, it would certainly be helpful
Eight defeats in a row, two wins from the last 16 matches, no, Gremio is anything but a welcome opponent. Of course, it is also interesting to note that the scoreboard has shown a maximum of one goal difference in 13 matches.
A measly two home games have been won against Gremio since 2011, so the chances of catching up are truly poor. Is that how the bookmakers see it when it comes to the odds for progression?
Not only at NEObet do the odds average 2.85 to 1.40, which puts Fluminense in the underdog role. But: As far as a pure win on Wednesday is concerned, things look different again at 2.20 to 3.80.
So can Gremio Porto Alegre go into the game completely relaxed? Of course, the visitors can’t take it too easy either. Their 14th place in the league is no coincidence, as the team’s performance has been too mixed
Not every fan expected things to suddenly go well in the Copa Libertadores, after all, they started with two 2-0 defeats against The Strongest and Huachipato.
However, the club from Porto Alegre recovered, won three times to nil and drew one more, thus securing their ticket to the knockout round. 0:2, 1:0, 1:0 – what do these three results that were achieved in the away games tell us?
That few goals were scored, perhaps? Quite possibly, because a bet of over 1.5 goals would actually pay off at odds of 1.53! Why not, Gremio would also be satisfied with a rather bland 1:1 to progress
Gremio Porto Alegre or Fluminense, who will get the ticket for the quarterfinals of the Copa Libertadores 2024? After the first leg, the visitors are narrowly ahead and have always won against their upcoming opponents.
In my opinion, the direct comparison could well be decisive, or rather the fact that the games are all incredibly close. Why is that? Quite simply because that’s exactly how Fluminense play their games.
Ultimately, Gremio don’t have to take any risks, a draw would easily be enough to progress. I have therefore decided to place the following bet:
Gremio will not lose in Rio!
