La Liga, Matchday 33 on Thursday, 24.04.2025 at 21:30
Atletico has now finally bowed out of the championship race. With their surprising defeat at Las Palmas, they are now ten points behind Barcelona with six games to go. Now they need to secure third place.
It may still be possible to upset Real Madrid, but the Blancos would have to collapse for that to happen. In my Atletico Madrid Rayo Vallecano tip, I expect the hosts to take at least one point, with the result remaining within the expected range.
That’s why I’m adding the “Over 0.5 goals” and “Under 3.5 goals” bets for 1-3 goals in the match at NEO.bet.
Qualification for the Champions League is practically certain, which is at least something for Atlético. The Colchoneros were able to keep up in the championship race for a long time. Towards spring, they ultimately dropped too many points and the title race now consists of two teams.
The defeat against Las Palmas (0-1) is followed by a match against an opponent that has suited Diego Simeone’s team in the past. His side has not lost any of the last 17 encounters, winning 13 of them!
During this period, there has been only one non-win at the Estadio Metropolitano. Accordingly, Atletico is the favorite with odds of 1.56, while Vallecano stands at 6.30. Those who opt for a draw will find odds of 3.85 at our German betting providers.
Despite the clear head-to-head statistics, I don’t really want to commit to a home win. The fact that Atletico are now alone in third place, six points behind the leaders and six ahead of the relegation zone ahead of matchday 33, makes things dangerous.
And the game against relegation-threatened Las Palmas was nothing to write home about. The Rojiblancos managed just seven shots on goal and we saw their sixth competitive game in a row without a clean sheet. Atletico are no longer the best defense in the league.
With 27 goals conceded, the capital club are one goal worse off than Athletic Bilbao. Overall, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine appearances. Accordingly, the odds of 1.76 for the visitors to score late on Thursday evening are very attractive.
With a free bet, I would even recommend betting on exactly one Vallecano goal. On the one hand, Atletico rarely concede more than one goal unless the opponent is Real or Barca, and on the other hand, the Franjirrojos’ offense is not the best this year.
If we bet on exactly one goal, we will receive double the net winnings compared to the “Vallecano to score” tip. That’s because the odds for this bet are 2.56. If you add “1X” to that, you get a neat 3.00, which is tax-free at NEO.bet.
With the $10 free bet you get before your first deposit, you could win $20 if the bet is successful. As for the final result, I don’t expect any fun in this match.
None of the last 13 encounters have seen more than three goals scored. That’s why I’ve settled on this limit for my final selection. Especially since Rayo hasn’t even managed a 1.00 average with 15 goals conceded in 16 away games.
Only a 7-0 win for Atletico in the first leg of last season stands out from the crowd. Incidentally, that was also the only game in the last five in which the underdog failed to score. However, there has not been a brace against the Colchoneros in any game since 2014!
That makes the 2.56 odds for exactly one Rayo goal even more attractive. In the first meeting this season, we saw one of the few non-wins, namely a 1-1 draw. Compared to various other matches, there was still quite a lot going on with 26 shots on goal.
The Franjirrojos were not far off their first win in eleven years. The reason I ultimately opted for “1X” with 1-3 goals, so that the hosts would need to score at least one goal, is because of a weakness in Rayo’s defense.
Abdul Mumin, an important player in the center, is out. He will be sidelined until the end of the season, having already missed the previous six games, during which time the team kept a clean sheet only once.
In terms of shots conceded over the entire season, Vallecano is unintentionally near the top of the table, with the sixth-highest number. On the other hand, the team has created the fifth-highest number of chances. However, this has only resulted in 35 goals.
And their current form in attack? There have been more goals than expected. In four of their last five games, the tenth-placed La Liga side have failed to reach the 1.00 expected goals mark.
Conclusion: Vallecano suits Atletico. They have won 13 of their last 17 unbeaten matches, and we have rarely seen escalating results. I don’t expect many goals this time either. Vallecano concedes surprisingly few goals away from home.
However, I think the hosts will score one or two goals. Without Mumin in defense, they have failed to keep a clean sheet three times in a row.
I think 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1 are the most likely results, but I’m also covering 1-1 with my bet.
My Atletico Rayo Vallecano tip is therefore: Double chance 1X & 1-3 goals.
