La Liga, Sunday, 29.09.2024 at 21:00
In the top match of the 8th La Liga matchday, city rivals Atletico and Real meet on Sunday evening at the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid.
For both teams, the aim is to keep the gap between themselves and Barcelona, who have so far been unblemished at the top of the table.
A look at the odds offered by the bookmakers shows that almost any outcome seems possible in this clash. I also don’t want to commit myself to a specific team and am assuming a division of the points without a goal spectacle.
Before the Derbi Madrileno on Sunday evening, Atletico had to play an away game at Celta Vigo on Thursday evening and narrowly won 1-0 with a goal in the final minute.
Real Madrid, on the other hand, had already won their home game against Deportivo Alaves 3-2 on Tuesday.
It cannot be ruled out that the two days longer preparation time will give the visitors a certain advantage.
However, Real were anything but easy in their home win over Alaves. Vazquez scored after just 55 seconds to make it 1-0, but after goals from Mbappe and Rodrygo, the champions became sloppy in the final stages and were forced to tremble again after conceding goals in the 85th and 86th minutes.
This shows that although the defending champions have won the most games this season, they have lacked their usual aplomb at times. In addition to five wins, there have also been two 1-1 draws at the two island clubs Mallorca and Las Palmas.
The last few games have also shown that the Madrilenians usually concede one goal. Atletico could also take advantage of this.
Diego Simeone’s team are traditionally difficult to beat at home.
This season, Atletico have not conceded a goal in three games at home and have been unusually prolific, at least in the two 3-0 victories over Girona and Valencia. Only in the 0-0 draw against Espanyol did the offense miss out.
Like leaders Barcelona and champions Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid are still undefeated in the championship.
However, in addition to the home draw against Espanyol, the Colchoneros also dropped points at Villarreal (2:2) and Rayo Vallecano (1:1). That also explains the six-point gap to leaders Barcelona
Atletico could overtake their city rivals with a home win in the derby. However, most bookmakers only have limited faith in Simeone’s side. The Betano app shows win odds of around 2.75.
But even an away win is not very likely with odds of around 2.5. A lot will therefore depend on the course of the game in this match and luck will also play a certain role.
A look at the last few duels shows that Atletico have always been able to upset their rivals, even if Real Madrid have usually ended up winning the big trophies in recent years.
Real did not win either of the two league duels against Atletico in the 2023/24 season. They drew 1-1 at home and lost the away derby 3-1.
The two sides also went head-to-head in the last 16 of the Copa del Rey, which Atletico won 4-2 after extra time.
The score was still 2-2 after 90 minutes and three of the last five league derbies at the Estadio Metropolitano also ended in draws. Only one game was won by Real (2-1).
This is also the reason why I’m leaning towards a points draw once again. Both clubs have made a solid start to the new season, but are by no means untouchable. In any case, both teams are difficult to beat.
I also assume that both teams would settle for a draw if the game is drawn for a long time.
Because the worst thing for both clubs would be a defeat in the derby. On the other hand, they could certainly live with a point, even if that would play into the hands of FC Barcelona, who could extend their lead.
Of course, a lot is possible in derbies and both Atletico and Real Madrid have players in their squads who can decide the game for their team.
Nevertheless, my Atletico Real Madrid tip for Sunday is: Draw with less than 4.5 goals in the match
