Champions League, Wednesday, 3/12/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
The fans of the royal family were not satisfied with last weekend’s game. Although Real Madrid won 2-1 against Rayo Vallecano, their performance in the second half put the nerves of the demanding fans to the test.
However, Carlo Ancelotti pointed out a crucial fact in the aftermath of the game. Real Madrid won the league game between two Champions League games. Atletico Madrid (1-2 vs. Getafe) lost, as did the three German teams (Bayern, Leverkusen and Dortmund).
The elusive winning gene of the Galacticos already made the difference in the first leg (2-1). In my Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting tip, I expect an exciting encounter, but I expect the defending champions to advance.
– Los Blancos’ offensive department is unique in this Champions League season. So far, Real has scored 2.55 goals per game (3rd).
In addition, Atletico Madrid have already caused four penalties in this CL season – the same as Real Madrid. There is no team in the current competition that has conceded more opposing penalties.
After 90 minutes, I expect “Real Madrid over 1.5 goals”. I’m getting odds of 2.10 for that at Bet365.
The bookmakers’ prediction
The Derbi Madrileno has often been quite even in recent years. Before Real Madrid’s 2-1 win in the first leg, both teams had agreed on a goalless draw in five consecutive matches after regular time.
If you look at the odds of the best betting providers, the impression of an even contest is confirmed. The odds for a home win (around 2.57) are similar to the possible win if Real Madrid were to win (around 2.70).
If the final whistle sounds in this game before either team has taken the lead, you can expect odds in the region of 3.60 from various bookmakers.
AI prediction Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: ChatGPT’s tip
The ChatGPT survey highlighted one thing above all: goals are the favored target for the AI forecast. This coincides surprisingly well with my Atletico Madrid Real Madrid tip. It starts with odds of 1.68 for “Over 2.5 goals” at LeoVegas.
Following this opening kick-off, the artificial intelligence rides a wave of goals and recommends the match combo “Both teams score & over 2.5 goals” as the next possible step up. Unsurprisingly, the Winamax offer only just beats the first variant and yields a possible profit of 1.90.
ChatGPT obviously doesn’t shy away from high risk. The artificial intelligence obviously believes that the hosts are capable of an historic evening. “Atletico Madrid win by at least two goals” is, in my opinion, quite ambitious and is therefore offered at Bet-at-home for odds of 5.25.
In any case, the betting suggestions of the artificial intelligence point to a goal-rich encounter, which makes the Derbi Madrileno a must-watch game. We have summarized how and where you can watch the Champions League live here.
Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid is as hungry for success in the premier league as ever. The galacticos have won six CL games in a row, scoring at least two goals in each of them.
On average, Carlo Ancelotti’s players scored 2.55 goals per Champions League game (28 goals in 11 matches). This is Real’s best result since the 2016/2017 season (2.77).
Among all participants in this Champions League season, the guests have scored the second-most expected goals (25.5 xG) and taken the second-most shots on goal per game (7.1).
Last weekend, the defending champions needed just a terrific first half-hour, in which Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe each ended their short goal drought of three goalless competitive matches.
Los Blancos’ own attacking play has often helped them out of trouble this CL season. Real Madrid have already allowed 144 shots on target (28th) and have conceded at least one goal in ten out of eleven games.
Atletico Madrid have scored at least two goals in six of their nine previous CL games and have a strong offensive line themselves.
The 4-4 draw against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-finals a few weeks ago showed the direction the Rojiblancos’ top games could take this season.
Ratings analysis
The betting odds for a classic three-way bet are pretty even, and rightly so. If you are in the mood for a single bet or a match combo that includes a winner, free bets should be your first choice.
The first leg included two stunning goals from Rodrygo and Julian Alvarez, underlining the fact that both teams can score from seemingly small opportunities.
A match, and a derbi madrileno at that, where the survival of the grandest of all club competitions hangs in the balance could be a goal-filled highlight. Personally, I’m definitely tempted by the odds of around 2.50 for “Over 3.5 goals”.
Real Madrid odds: A secret star
Real Madrid’s squad is outstanding. Kylian Mbappe only joined the Whites this season . So far, the Frenchman has scored 16 goals in 14 away CL knockout matches. After his transfer from PSG to the Galacticos, he needed a little time to settle in, but since then he has been totally convincing.
At his side, Vinicius Junior continues to perform well and often makes the headlines in the international press. Last weekend, the winger dribbled past several defenders on his way to a goal. He also set up Kylian Mbappe for a goal.
Jude Bellingham is attracting no less attention. “Mr. Clutch” has been directly involved in 58 goals in 79 competitive games for Real Madrid.
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With so many big names, it’s easy for other players to fade into the background, even though their performances are surprisingly good.
Rodrygo seems to enjoy getting less attention. In any case, the lower interest in comparison to the other offensive players does not change his performance and goal rates.
The Brazilian scored a real dream goal in the first leg, putting Real Madrid in the lead early on and celebrating his 25th Champions League goal for the white ballet.
The aura lives on
Since 2014, six different teams have won the Champions League. Barca (2015), Liverpool (2019), Bayern (2020), Chelsea (2021) and Manchester City have each triumphed once during this period.
Incidentally, Real Madrid have won all six editions of the Champions League (2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022, 2024). Luka Modric is one of the last remaining members of the team that lifted the trophy for three consecutive seasons.
Much has changed in the Los Blancos squad, but the success has remained. The generational change has gone smoother than expected. Carlo Ancelotti, who is about to become the coach of the Galacticos before his 75th CL game, is considered the architect of this new team. No other coach of the 15-time Champions League winners has ever managed this feat.
With a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, Ancelotti has a good chance of adding more games to his portfolio.
The defending champion has prevailed in 21 of the 22 previous knockout matches when winning the first leg.
A draw would be enough for the Royal Madrid to reach the quarter-finals – it would be the fifth quarter-final appearance in a row for the team from the Spanish capital.
But we can’t write off Atletico Madrid yet. The Rojiblancos are undefeated in the knockout phase after 18 Champions League home games (11W, 7D).
In addition, the Colchoneros have only lost three of the previous 17 home games against Real Madrid (across all competitions).
However, it is also true that Diego Simeone’s team have not won any of their last four direct duels with the city rivals (3W, 1D).
My Atletico Madrid Real Madrid tip:
Both teams have the potential to score more than one goal in this game. Real Madrid have created the third-most big chances in the current competition (45).
However, 144 balls have already flown towards the visitors’ goal (28), which has given almost every of the Whites’ opponents the chance of scoring one or even more goals.
My Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting tip: Real Madrid scores at least two goals!
