Bundesliga matchday 24, Sunday, 02.03.2025 at 17:30
Freiburg are going full throttle in the second half of the Bundesliga season. With the 5-0 win against Werder Bremen, the sports club has jumped into a Champions League place after matchday 23 and will be looking to establish itself at the top with more points on Sunday.
In my FC Augsburg SC Freiburg betting tip, I expect a defensive-oriented match. The hosts have only conceded three goals this year.
Despite their long unbeaten streak, I expect a maximum of one point on Sunday. For the “Double Chance X2” with under 3.5 goals, we get strong odds at Interwetten that almost double the stake.
Four wins in a row for Freiburg, eleven games to go means: Champions League! Can the team of Julian Schuster, who has taken over from long-time coach Christian Streich, maintain this level?
I still have my doubts. The top 6 is definitely in the cards, but the top flight? I think Leipzig and Stuttgart can do better and BVB may also be able to close the gap on the Black Forest side.
The betting operators’ forecast
In terms of the second-round table, Freiburg and Augsburg are both at top-class level and are in third and fourth place with twelve points after six matches. Only Bayern have collected more points.
At Interwetten, where you can also deposit and withdraw money conveniently via PayPal, there are strong odds in the 1X2 market. The reason for this is that the bookmakers can really imagine anything.
Augsburg’s success (2.65) is rated slightly more likely than that of the visitors (2.80). The difference is marginal, the draw (3.15) is rated just above that. Is there something in it for the AI?
AI prediction FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg: ChatGPT
T actually does, but the AI only dares to go for one of the three options in the “high risk” recommendation, suggests the draw and adds the bet that both teams will score a goal.
We’re in the region of 4.20. The odds aren’t good enough for me, so I’d go straight for the 1:1 at 5.25 odds. In view of the stable defense, a 2:2 would surprise me a bit.
The bookies don’t expect many goals. “Over 1.5 goals” already has a whopping 1.40 odds, and the ‘Over 2.5 goals’ classic can be added to the betting slip at 2.15.
Let’s stick with the betting tips from ChatGPT for now. The goal of both teams in isolation is the “medium risk variant”, which is in the 1.85 range. As we cover significantly more outcomes here, I find this option much more interesting.
Nevertheless, I would actually prefer to go for an “Under” in this matchup. At least that’s what the AI does with the “low risk selection”, has the “Under 2.5 goals” line in mind here to a 1.65.
Analysis: SC Freiburg vs FC Augsburg
Freiburg have won four games in a row without conceding a single goal, three 1-0 wins against Bochum, Heidenheim and St. Pauli, followed by the resounding victory against the currently struggling Bremen.
Yes, a strong record and we got the maximum out of it. Nevertheless, I don’t want to overrate this series of matches because of the opponents. We’re talking about 15th, 16th and 17th place and the weakest team so far in 2025.
Ultimately, Freiburg got the maximum out of these games and impressed in defense in particular, making good progress after conceding ten goals in the three defeats against Stuttgart, Bayern and Frankfurt.
And Augsburg? With its three goals conceded in this still young year, it has the best figure of the top five leagues in Europe. Only Stuttgart have managed to hurt the club twice, losing 1-0 in both the league and the cup.
Most recently, after three draws in a row against St. Pauli, Mainz and RBL, we saw a 3:0 away win in Gladbach. The lead over the relegation place is now a whopping 14 points.
Rating Analysis
Based on the compactness and all other figures, such as chances allowed and expected goals against, I am convinced that we will not experience a shooting party. The AI’s “under 2.5 goals” line is pretty attractive.
Ultimately, however, I want to hedge my bets at least for the most common soccer result, the 2:1, and in combination with the “Double chance X2” I get better odds. Freiburg still have much more individual quality in their squad, especially in attack.
Vincenzo Grifo once again showed what that looks like against Werder with an outstanding free-kick. For the “X2” as individual odds you get 1.50 odds, top for a combination ticket on Sunday!
FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg: Augsburg with a poor record against Freiburg
In addition, Freiburg has not been a good place for Augsburg in recent years. Of the last twelve meetings, FCA have only won one match against the sports club, which was the home game of the previous season.
Augsburg prevailed 2:1. The first leg of this season was a completely different story. Freiburg had already made everything clear at half-time and went into the break 3:0 ahead.
Philipp Tietz could only score the consolation goal to make the final score 3:1.
Odds boost for Augsburg vs Freiburg
In my Augsburg Freiburg betting tip, I also want to take a look at the odds from Oddset, the traditional betting provider par excellence. It’s worth registering with them simply because of their strong bonus offer.
There are also strong odds boosts for practically every match. Be sure to take a look here towards kick-off to see what is currently available.
Among other things, the odds that FCA will win and we will see more than 3.5 goals have been increased by almost 2.00.
However, I see value in the opposite market, the “X2”. Incidentally, a draw would see Augsburg set a club record of eight unbeaten Bundesliga games in a row.
Speaking of chasing records, Freiburg are currently enjoying their third-best Bundesliga season of all time. Only 2022/23 and 1994/95 had more points on their account at the same time.
I also find another top odds for this match at Oddset. There is the market that the match will be decided by exactly one goal difference.
That is absolutely conceivable in this Bundesliga Sunday fixture and we still get strong 2.25 odds.
My FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg tip:
Both teams are currently on cloud nine, will that change on Sunday? Not necessarily! I rate a draw as the most realistic outcome, but I think the visitors have a slight advantage overall due to their greater attacking quality.
The Black Forest also have a strong record against FCA, losing only one of their last twelve games. Neither team has conceded a goal in the last three games, and Freiburg have even kept a clean sheet in four matches.
I’m not expecting the most spectacular game this weekend, but a very exciting one in which the individual class of the Breisgauers could make the difference in the end!
My tip: Double chance X2 & Under 3.5 goals
