Augsburg – Heidenheim Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 22 on Sunday, 15/02/2026 at 15:30 CET
At the start of the Bundesliga Sunday, I picked out a real relegation cracker for my Augsburg Heidenheim tip. Here, on the 22nd Bundesliga matchday, two teams will meet who are ablaze, especially in defence.
For me, everything here smells like goals on both sides. My main tip is therefore: “Both teams score”. At Interwetten you get a decent odd of 1.63 for this, which I definitely take with me, because the facts speak for themselves.
The Bundesliga is already the highest-scoring of Europe’s top 5 leagues with an average of 3.18 goals per game. With the two shakiest defensive lines in the league, I expect that it will ring at least once in both boxes. That is an almost logical conclusion.
Augsburg lost 2-0 in Mainz last weekend, but that was the first defeat after five unbeaten league games. FCA currently have 22 points and are in 13th place, just three points above the relegation zone.
A win would therefore be worth its weight in gold for the Fuggerstädter to give themselves some breathing space. At home, they are unbeaten in six games and will certainly play for a win against the bottom of the table, which should open up space for the opponent.
Heidenheim remains at the bottom of the table after the 2-0 home defeat against Hamburg. With only one point from the last five games, they are the top candidate for direct relegation. So you have to score, no matter how.
Augsburg – Heidenheim Prediction & Betting
If you are looking for an alternative in addition to my main tip, I have of course looked at other Augsburg Heidenheim bets. An interesting option is definitely the home win of Augsburg, which brings odds of 1.85 in the sports betting apps.
Augsburg are unbeaten in five home games and have even annoyed top teams like Leverkusen and Bayern. Against the bottom of the table, a win is almost mandatory, even if the defense is always good for conceding a goal.
If you like it a little safer, I recommend the combination bet “Double Chance 1X & Both Score”. With odds of 1.95, also at Interwetten, you can hedge against a draw, which is not so unlikely in view of three draws in the last five FCA home games.
What you need to know about Augsburg vs. Heidenheim betting
- Augsburg and Heidenheim have the weakest defences in the league with 21 goals each conceded in the first half.
- Heidenheim has only taken two points from the last eight league games after a short intermediate high.
- In over 60% of the Bundesliga matches between the two teams this season, three or more goals have been scored.
- Augsburg have only been able to keep a clean sheet at home once this season, against Bremen.
Augsburg – Heidenheim: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
When it gets down to business in the basement of the Bundesliga table, our AI model naturally takes a very close look. The Augsburg Heidenheim AI prediction provides you with three additional betting alternatives.
One thing is clear: If 1. FC Heidenheim loses the game, it will slowly become tricky in the fight to stay in the league. At least in the 1st half, FCH should hold their own. “Draw at the break” is the right bet at odds around 2.25.
Heidenheim have conceded 47 goals in the first 21 games of this Bundesliga season. No team was worse. Accordingly, the AI throws “Augsburg over 1.5 goals” into the room. The odds at around 1.75 are extremely solid.
The digital brain also has a result bet up its sleeve. The “2:1 for Augsburg” is classified by the bookmakers with a German license at odds around 8.75. Only the 1-1 (7.50) and the 1-0 for FC (8.00) are considered more likely.
The best odds for Augsburg vs. Heidenheim
I also looked at the numbers from our AI tool to create a data-based Augsburg Heidenheim forecast. The machine sees the hosts as having a clear advantage here and calculates a 53.9% probability of victory for Augsburg.
A draw is valued at 22.9%, while an away win for Heidenheim has only a probability of 23.2%. This coincides with the assessment of the bookmakers, who see FCA as the clear favourites.
It gets exciting when it comes to the goal prediction: The tool expects a total of 2.95 goals in this game. Augsburg is credited with 1.79 goals and Heidenheim with 1.16 goals. That underpins my main tip that both teams will score tremendously.
The bookmakers have set the Asian Handicap Line for over-goals at 2.75. This means that with three goals there is a half win, from four goals the full. Given the form of both teams and the AI forecast, this is a bet worth considering.
The Augsburg Heidenheim odds on the 1X2 market also reflect this data. The implied probability of victory for Augsburg is around 54%, which is almost exactly the same as the calculation of the AI tool. Heidenheim is the clear underdog.
The Asian Handicap Line is at Augsburg -0.5. This is basically nothing more than a bet on a home win. If Augsburg wins, the bet is won. In the event of a draw or a win for Heidenheim, the stake would be gone.
Augsburg vs Heidenheim Match Analysis:
This duel is pure relegation battle. Neither team is known for taking over the game and being dominant. So it will be exciting to see who is forced to take the initiative here.
Since Heidenheim only has an average of 42% possession, I assume that Augsburg will have more of the game. Interestingly, however, the Fuggerstädter had less possession than their opponents in nine of eleven home games. A real tactical puzzle!
I suspect that this game will be decided by individual mistakes and a lack of concentration in defence. Both teams allow extremely high-quality chances, which is clearly demonstrated by the figures of the Expected Goals Against (xGA).
Heidenheim has the highest xGA value in the entire Bundesliga with 40.82, while Augsburg is in third last place with 38.69. So there is an absolute fire danger in both penalty areas, which of course plays into the hands of us bettors.
Despite their own defensive vulnerability, Augsburg should be able to win this game due to the recent positive home series. Heidenheim must be careful not to get completely under the wheels.
Heidenheim’s miserable away record also speaks for itself. Frank Schmidt and his team are deep in the mess, and the growing desperation could force them to make mistakes, which Augsburg will take advantage of ice-cold.
Augsburg Form Check
Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat against direct rivals Mainz was a bitter setback for FCA. Nevertheless, it was the first defeat after five unbeaten games, which shows that the team is more solid.
Under the new coach Manuel Baum, things are going much better. The team has taken eight points from the last six games. The change of coach after the dismissal of Sandro Wagner in December seems to have paid off.
Baum is even the first Augsburg coach to remain unbeaten in his first five Bundesliga home games. The run at home is now six games without defeat, which should give the players enormous self-confidence.
However, the defence remains a big problem. Together with Heidenheim, FCA have the weakest defence in the first half (21 goals conceded). The team simply manages to keep a clean sheet too rarely, as the only home game without conceding a goal proves.
Offensively, Augsburg lives above all from its strength in set pieces and crosses. Six headers are the highest percentage in the league (25% of all 24 goals). In addition, seven goals were scored from set-pieces, which only six other teams surpass.
Although Augsburg have the second-weakest value in the league according to Expected Goals (xG) at 22.88, they are always good for a goal due to their header strength and efficiency at set-pieces.
Heidenheim Form Check
For Heidenheim, the air in the Bundesliga is getting thinner and thinner. After the narrow rescue in the relegation against Elversberg in the previous season, the team is again up to its neck in the relegation quagmire in its third first division season.
The start of the season was catastrophic with eight defeats in the first eleven games. A brief revolt with victories against Union Berlin and Freiburg at the end of 2025 quickly fizzled out. Now the team has been waiting for a win for eight games.
The numbers are frightening: With only 19 goals scored, Heidenheim has the weakest offense and with 47 goals conceded the most porous defense in the league. The team spent the entire season in the last three places.
The defence is one big construction site. In 22 Bundesliga games across the season, Heidenheim have not kept a single clean sheet – a negative club record in the top flight. An end to this series is not in sight against Augsburg.
This makes Heidenheim only the fifth team in the history of the Bundesliga that has managed not to show a single clean sheet after 21 matchdays. The chances are good that this inglorious series will continue.
Despite the desolate situation, there is a small glimmer of hope: In the last five away games, Frank Schmidt’s team has always scored a goal. This clearly speaks for our main tip that both teams will score.
