Austrian Bundesliga, Conference League Playoffs, Friday, 24.05.2024
Austria Vienna scored the winning goal against Wolfsberger AC in the fourth minute of stoppage time to not only book their place in the Conference League play-off final, but also keep the pressure at bay with the possibility of extra time.
The first leg against TSV Hartberg, who finished fifth in the championship round and secured a play-off place, starts just three days after the match. In my Austria Wien Hartberg betting tip, I assume that the Violets will want to get ahead, act courageously and can score twice. Sunmaker has the right over 1.5 Austria goals odds
The 24-time Austrian champions are aiming for a place in the Conference League qualifiers. After an otherwise disastrous season, it would be damage limitation for FK. Bet365 is optimistic that they will be able to get ahead at home in the first leg against Hartberg.
At 1.71, Vienna will start as favorites. The visitors, who finished the season in fifth place, have been allocated 4.10. The draw odds are just below that (3.90). Super at Bet365, since 2024 the site has been one of the betting providers without tax, so more of the profit remains.
For a long time, it looked like Austria could secure home field for the playoff semi-finals. However, the capital city side dropped all their points in the relegation round, with just one three-pointer from their last five games.
The club turned up the heat again just in time for the decisive phase. A 2:1 against BW Linz with a whopping 26 goals and also in Wolfsberg it was the visitors who dominated proceedings. I already wrote a tip for the play-off semi-final and had the right instinct with the goal for both teams
We need to build on that. The last-minute goal should have released even more energy. It was the second game in a row with an Austria double and now we head into the home game of the play-off final.
I’m convinced that the Viennese can take the momentum with them and score twice again. After all, the motto is to win before the second leg in Hartberg just a few days later. Sunmaker is serving up 1.59 for at least two Austria goals
In addition, interim coach Christian Wegleitner, who succeeds Michael Wimmer, can only rely on the defense to a limited extent. The Violets have been without a clean sheet for six games.
Wegleitner joined the coaching team in January, having been promoted from the assistant coach position after Wimmer’s departure. The change of coach is having an effect. After four defeats, he took the helm and steered FK to their two most recent victories
The breath of fresh air he brings with him also underpins my ratings. It’s also more difficult for TSV to adapt to the Viennese side’s game. Their own results have not been consistent of late, but the team made an impression in the victories against Rapid (3:0) and Klagenfurt (3:2).
They also drew 1:1 with champions Sturm Graz and only suffered a heavy defeat against Salzburg (1:5), the team that was dethroned after ten years of dominance.
The direct duels between Hartberg and Austria Vienna were definitely respectable. Hartberg took a 2:1 lead at home, while Austria returned the favor with a 3:1 win in the reunion. In general, things are turbulent when the teams meet.
At least three goals have been scored in seven of the last eight encounters. Conveniently, the best sports betting apps still offer odds above the 1.50 mark, definitely a good alternative to the over 1.5 Austria goal tip.
However, he has also been a safe bet in recent home games against Hartberg, with 3:1, 3:0, 2:0, 3:1 being the most recent results in the Generali Arena. In total, there have been nine competitive matches, with only the 0:1 in 2021 failing to produce a Viennese double.
The clear record is also made clear by the 27:11 goal difference, an average of 4.22 goals per game between FK and Hartberg when the Viennese are at home. The 2.29 odds for at least four goals should therefore be mentioned at this point
I’ve already talked about Austria Vienna’s susceptibility to conceding goals, but Hartberg are also struggling to keep a clean sheet, or to put it more precisely: a clean sheet in their last 14 appearances.
And then there is the strong home record of Austria, the club that has only suffered one home defeat in the regular season alone. Their lack of efficiency in front of goal, with only Lustenau and Altach taking fewer opportunities, has cost them a few points. Incidentally, Hartberg netted around twice as many shots at 10.5 percent
Conclusion: Hartberg have been a welcome guest at Vienna’s Generali Arena in the past. In addition, the change of coach has borne fruit: two games, two wins, two double goals. But Hartberg have also been able to make their mark in the championship round and have fought their way up to fifth place.
However, TSV have only managed one of their last 14 matches without conceding a goal and are now heading to the team with the second-most goalscoring chances in the league, who will be looking to put one past them in the first leg in front of their own fans.
And then there was the last-minute goal in the knockout game against Wolfsberg, which should give FK an extra boost. That’s why I’m opting for the Violets to score twice.
My Austria Wien Hartberg tip: Over 1.5 Austria goals
