Champions League, Tuesday, 11.03.2025 at 18:45
Benfica travel to Catalonia for the second leg of the Champions League round of 16 in a poor position. Barca recorded a 1-0 away win in Lisbon, having to play outnumbered for long periods and scoring the opening goal with ten men.
The Spaniards are back at full strength for the reunion. A difficult evening lies ahead. However, I expect the visitors to be as bold as they were in the first leg. The question is also how the hosts will deal with the situation of the suddenly deceased team doctor.
In the first match, the Eagles were always dangerous in the penalty area and could easily have scored a few more goals. We should now see them in the all-important second leg. That’s why I’m backing both teams to score over 2.5 goals in the package at NEO.bet.
The first clash could have ended very differently given the course of the game. After all, the Portuguese capital team were de facto regulars in the Barcelona penalty area and exerted a lot of pressure, especially in the closing stages.
In the end, there was a lack of finishing quality, the final idea or accuracy with the decisive pass, but we have another 90 minutes of the duel that we already experienced in the league phase. Only now the circumstances are completely different.
The bookmakers’ prediction
After all, the game will now continue in Barcelona. Due to the Camp Nou renovation, the match will be played at the Olympic Stadium, as are all home games of the four-time CL winners. Hansi Flick’s team is clearly favored at 1.35.
An away win bet can be placed at 7.60, while the bookmakers have placed the draw in the 5.40 range. Is there value here for the “Double Chance X2” at 3.25?
After all, a draw is enough for Barca to progress and Benfica didn’t play a weak match last week, just lacking in coolness. Does the AI have the odds on its radar?
AI prediction Barcelona vs Benfica Lisbon: This is what ChatGPT
Like me, it prefers to avoid the 1X2 market in its main recommendations. Only logical. Barca have completely outplayed all the teams at home this season. At the same time, a draw would not be fatal.
I think it’s too hot to go for one of these main odds with such a starting position. We still have the goal market, dear AI! And that’s where ChatGPT really goes wild, suggesting a goal from both teams as a low-risk tip.
We always get 1.55 odds for this bet. But I don’t think it will stay at a meagre 1:1. That’s why I’m adding the “Over 2.5 goals”, which gives us total odds of around 1.70. Meanwhile, “Over 3.5 goals” as individual odds is the second suggestion of the artificial intelligence.
An attractive 1.82 odds, to which I would definitely add the goal of both teams for a 2.14. A clear 4:0 or 5:0 would be a surprise. After all, the visitors have to go for goal and will throw everything into it.
This risk is likely to result in a goal or two being conceded against Barcelona’s mega offense, but no stone will be left unturned on Tuesday so as not to end up blaming themselves for not trying!
ChatGPT sees a higher risk with its third selection, the final score tip “2:1 for Barcelona”. These almost double-digit odds would be something for the free bet we get at NEO.bet after registration.
Analysis: Barcelona vs. Benfica Lisbon
Barca vs. Benfica – I have fond memories of the league phase duel. I only watched the match via the conference, which ended up being almost nothing. That’s how often they switched to this match. We ended up seeing a whopping nine goals.
As in the first leg of the round of 16, Barcelona had the better end after 90 minutes with a 5:4 victory. Last week, a shot from the second row by Raphinha was enough to decide the game. Lisbon failed to score after a whopping 26 attempts. The final result didn’t do justice to the proliferation of chances in the end.
In total we saw 36 shots on target in the game, I expect a similar result on Tuesday. A goal bet is only logical for me. While Barca didn’t play a game in the league on Saturday due to the death of Carles Miñarro Garcia, Benfica managed a 3-0 win over Nacional.
I wouldn’t speak of a freshness disadvantage on Tuesday. In my opinion, the push for self-confidence to go into the second leg with a strong match at the weekend will outweigh that
Rating Analysis
The goal of both teams with “Over 2.5 goals” will be mine. Why? Two offensively strong teams meet here, but both have struggled at the back against other top clubs this season.
The fact that Barca came away with a clean sheet in Lisbon was more down to Lisbon’s inability than the visitors’ defensive play. After all, it is not the game of the men in the striped shirts, who under Flick want to dominate their opponents from start to finish.
And at most concede the odd counter-attack, which then quickly become dangerous. I’ve watched a lot of Catalan games this season.
I was almost in awe of their attacking play, but when their opponents switched, things got dicey in front of their own box. And now we face a game against a team that has scored in all 2025 games, just not last week when they met.
Barcelona vs Benfica Lisbon odds: Defensive failures
On the one hand, I expect Lisbon to build on their offensive courage from the first leg, but at the same time, Barcelona won’t want to simply blow a small 1-0 lead at home. I’m looking forward to seeing how the match unfolds from the first minute.
Another thing that makes me confident of many goals is the personnel situation in defense. Barca will be without the suspended Pau Cubarsi and Benfica will have to make concessions at full-back.
Alvaro Carreras will be suspended through yellow card alongside the injured Alexander Bah. Florentino and Manu Silva will also be missing in defensive midfield. Veteran Angel Di Maria will also not be involved. Overall, the ex-Madrilenean has not been on the pitch as often against any other club.
Benfica will definitely miss his experience. He also scored in almost every other match against Barca. Speaking of scorers, the goalscoring market is not at all uninteresting for this game.
High scoring rate for prolific Pavlidis
Robert Lewandowski is considered the top scorer and the man responsible for the penalties at 1.63, followed by his men on the wing Raphinha (2.10) and Lamine Yamal (2.60). You could build a nice combination from this using the Bet365 betting configurator.
As a central player, I find Dani Olmo’s 2.25 very interesting. He scored seven goals in his last two games. Bet365’s odds are free of betting tax and, as an official partner of the Champions League, there is currently a very hot ticket promotion on offer.
In addition, new customers can benefit from a strong betting bonus with the code “VIPANGEBOT”. Bet365 also offers top-class service in terms of payout times. The desired amount is paid out within a few hours.
In addition to the Barca odds, the 3.25 from Vangelis Pavlidis at Bet365 particularly appeals to me. The Greek has scored in eight of the last ten matches and has not always played from the start!
What’s more, he had a whopping six goals in the first leg and scored a treble in the league phase match.
In total, we’ve already seen eleven duels between the top teams. Benfica fans will remember the premiere in particular, when the Eagles prevailed 3-2 in the 1961 National Cup final.
All in all, Barca dominate the standings after eleven matches, all of which were played at premier class level, with the Spaniards winning five matches and Benfica only two. The game ended in a draw four times.
My Barcelona Benfica Lisbon betting tip:
The Pavlidis goal odds of 3.25 really excite me after the treble in the league phase and the six goals in the first leg.
First and foremost, I’m relying on a very attack-minded match on Tuesday evening, in which both teams are likely to get their chance, but especially the hosts, who won’t be resting on their laurels at 1-0, can play at full strength again at home.
But beware! The visitors will not admit defeat without fight and ideas. With the exception of the first leg, the Eagles have scored in every competitive game so far.
My Barcelona Benfica Lisbon prediction: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals!
