Conference League Quali, 3rd round, second leg, Wednesday, 15.08.2024 at 19:45
There’s a favorite on one side, an underdog on the other – and yet you only go into the second leg with a 1-0 lead! In our Conference League tips, I’m now looking at a very close duel.
The game will be played in Istanbul on Thursday, and neither of the participants in the match is likely to score many goals. And for this very reason, I will now tell you in my Basaksehir Iberia 1999 tip why I would bet on under 3.5 goals here
Basaksehir want to reach the group stage of the Conference League, so far so good. The Turkish side, who finished fourth in the Süper Lig in 2023/24, have so far avoided the bigger names in qualifying.
The arduous journey began in the second round. However, arduous is the wrong word here, as the victories against La Fiorita were never in danger. On the contrary, Basaksehir were allowed to really push themselves offensively
6:1 and 4:0, the fans like to see games like that. We thought we could expect something similar in the 3rd round. The opponent: Iberia 1999, also known under the former name FC Saburtalo Tbilisi, who have not really made a name for themselves in Europe in recent decades.
Basaksehir first had to play away and hand on heart: didn’t every fan among you expect to return home with a commanding victory? It didn’t quite turn out that way
The favorites did win, but a goal from Davidson in minute 87 sealed the victory and there wasn’t much more to see. Although the team may have been stronger in terms of play, they were simply not compelling enough going forward.
Of course, it is still an advantage to take a slim victory into the second leg. Basaksehir would not necessarily have to win or score in their own stadium, even an unadorned 0-0 would be enough to progress
Fortan have to manage the balancing act between the European Cup and everyday league life anyway, as coach Cagdas Atan’s team only entered the Süper Lig last Monday. Successful? No, because three points were not enough.
They drew 1-1 against Rizespor. Admittedly, the opponents were extremely strong at home in 2023/24, so it’s anything but easy to win there. If we look at the data, it’s clear that the draw was quite fortunate for Basaksehir.
One shot on goal, one corner and very little going on offensively. At the other end, Rizespor produced a whopping 23 shots and were just a little too careless with their chances.
So everything is not yet perfect, which is why the second leg against Iberia 1999 must be taken very seriously. The opponent comes from Georgia and admittedly: The name didn’t really mean much to me either.
So it’s no wonder that the odds for a win on Thursday are averaging 13.0 to 1.15.
Iberia 1999 from Tbilisi in Georgia could reach the international play-offs for the first time ever, which alone should motivate the players enough. But can they really turn things around away from home?
It would have to be very different to the current situation in the league, where they have only won one of their last seven games. Like Basaksehir, the team reached Round 2 of the Conference League qualifiers
The team won the first leg against FK Partizani 2-0, and a 0-0 draw a little later was enough to progress. In all three international matches, there were a maximum of two goals, never scattered between the two sides.
Iberia, unsurprisingly, are without any big stars, so they have to come through passion and fighting spirit. Can a market value of less than five million euros make that possible?
Admittedly, on paper Iberia probably don’t stand a chance against Basaksehir in 1999. On the other hand, the first leg ended with a late and lucky 1-0 win for the Turks.
After the bumpy start to the league, I could well imagine that anything is possible in the second encounter, for both teams. Basaksehir in particular have struggled offensively in the last two games.
All in all, this means that I tend to refrain from a more spectacular bet, as the performances of both teams are in line with this. All in all, I therefore opt for the following bet:
3.5 goals will not be scored!
