Europa League Quali, 3rd round, second leg, Thursday, 15.08.2024 at 19:00
HNK Rijeka face an extremely unpleasant task in the third round of Europa League qualifying. After a disappointing 1-1 draw in the first leg against IF Elfsborg, the Croatians must win away from home to progress to the next round.
In my Elfsborg Rijeka betting tip, however, I do not assume that HNK will be able to defeat the Scandinavians after 90 minutes. I’ll tell you why I’m betting on the “Double chance 1X” with the addition “Under 3.5 goals” in the course of my analysis:
Going into the first leg against Rijeka as clear underdogs, Elfsborg really can’t complain about the draw.
After all, they were outnumbered from the 56th minute onwards, but still managed to secure a satisfactory result in the end.
In general, the Swedes have proved to be a difficult opponent to play against in the recent past. IF have only lost one of their last twelve games this season
More recently, Elfsborg have also been characterized by a purposeful minimalism. After all, the Scandinavians have only scored more than one goal twice in their last five games.
The general home strength of IF also plays a major role in my Elfsborg Rijeka prediction. In the two previous qualifying rounds of the Europa League, Elfsborg won both home games
An easy 3:0 win against Paphos FC. They also did not concede a goal against former Champions League participants Sheriff Tiraspol (2:0).
It is fitting that they are also one of the strongest teams at home in the current Allsvenskan season.
Of their first ten appearances in front of a home crowd, they even won seven of them. It is therefore unlikely that Elfsborg will lose to Rijeka at home
HNK Rijeka already have one disadvantage that should not be underestimated. In contrast to the Swedish league, which is in the middle of its season, the season in Croatia is only just beginning.
The fact that HNK only managed to come through the first round of the EL qualifiers against outsiders Hunedoara with the greatest of difficulty (0:0, 1:0) is undoubtedly also due to a lack of competitive practice.
In general, the team’s early form is still not quite right. Including the test matches, HNK have only won two of their last eight games
In four of those games, they also failed to score a goal. It would therefore come as no surprise if the game against Elfsborg gets off to a tough start.
A “draw at half-time” at odds of around 2.00 is undoubtedly worth considering – possibly including the Betano betting bonus.
In any case, it remains to be seen how strong the Croatians will be away from home this season. In the previous season, they finished as runners-up.
However, with six defeats and three draws, they only won one in two of their 18 away games
Looking at the direct comparison will only help you to a limited extent. In fact, Elfsborg and Rijeka met for the first time ever in the first leg.
Incidentally, IF have yet to win against a Croatian team. In the 2004/05 Europa League season, they suffered an ultimately deserved knockout against Dinamo Zagreb (0:0, 0:2).
Rijeka’s contact with Swedish teams is also limited
In the 2022/23 season, they faced Djurgardens in the Conference League qualifiers.
Both games were lost (1:2, 0:2). In general, the Croatians have not been able to pull out all the stops at European Cup level in recent years.
The last time they made it to the group stage of the Europa League was in the 2020/21 season. However, they were knocked out at the group stage
Conclusion: On paper, HNK Rijeka should actually advance to the next round against IF Elfsborg. However, the first leg has already shown that the Croatians have big problems with the Swedes.
I therefore assume that Elfsborg will once again be defensively solid in front of their home crowd and make it incredibly difficult for Rijeka to create top-class scoring opportunities. An away win is therefore simply not on the cards.
Rather, my Elfsborg Rijeka tip is that IF will not leave the pitch as losers after 90 minutes and less than 3.5 goals will be scored in total
My tip: Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals
