FC Bayern Munich – 1st FC Cologne betting tip
After two defeats in a row in the Bundesliga, the 0:2 at home against Dortmund and above all the 2:3 in Heidenheim, there were again major doubts in Munich as to whether the record champions would really finish the season with coach Thomas Tuchel.
Above all, there was less and less confidence that the team would be able to do anything in the Champions League, the only remaining competition in which FCB still has something to play for in 2023/24, after the poor second half of the Bundesliga season.
However, Bayern showed a different face when they visited the Gunners on Tuesday and earned a 2-2 draw in the quarter-final first leg. FC Bayern therefore have a very good chance of reaching the semi-finals
But before they welcome Arsenal to the Allianz Arena for the second leg next Wednesday, they have to face the league on Saturday. Relegation-threatened 1. FC Köln are the guests in Munich.
With a 16-point deficit to leaders Leverkusen on matchday 29, it is quite possible that coach Tuchel will conserve his strength and only send a better B-team onto the pitch. That would of course play into the visitors’ hands.
For my Bayern Cologne betting tip at odds of 1.98 with Oddset, I opt for the bet “Victory Bayern & Over 3.5 goals.”
The forecast of the betting providers?
The best bookmakers are clearly on the side of the record champions in the Bayern Cologne forecast. There are only odds of around 1.20 for a home win.
On the other hand, you will get 12 to 13 times your stake back for a win by the visitors. Looking at the overall table, this assessment makes perfect sense.
But if you only look at the second half of the season, the differences are no longer so clear. FCB have only collected five points more than the Billy Goats. In addition, EffZeh even conceded fewer defeats (4) than Munich (5) in the second half of the season.
If you have confidence in the underdog on Saturday, but are afraid of the risk, a free bet could be something for you
Analysis: Bayern vs Cologne
In Heidenheim last Saturday, Bayern had eleven international players on the pitch, who collapsed in the second half after taking a 2-0 lead and ended up empty-handed.
The defense in particular, with the Upamecano/Kim duo, was involved in all three goals conceded. The defeat at the promoted side was their sixth loss of the season.
There have not been so many in a full season for 12 years. The record champions conceded five of their six defeats in the second half of the season. With 16 points from eleven games, the club is playing its weakest second half of the season in 32 years.
The defense in particular is no longer holding up. Only three teams conceded more goals in the second half of the season than FCB (21). As a result, Munich must even fear for the runners-up spot in the league
On Tuesday at the Gunners, however, the spectators saw a different FC Bayern. The visitors stood quite deep and surprisingly often allowed their opponents the ball. Players like Neuer, de Ligt, Goretzka, Sané, Gnabry and Kane led the way.
In the end, Munich earned a 2-2 draw that almost felt like a victory at the Premier League leaders. Coach Tuchel refrained from experimenting, but was not let down as so often in the league.
With 80 goals after 28 games, the record champions still have the strongest offense in this Bundesliga season. FC Bayern also enjoy playing against teams in a direct relegation spot.
They have not lost in 55 matches here (47S, 8U). They have won all of their last 18 matches. Coach Tuchel is not allowed to sit on the bench on Saturday due to his fourth yellow card from the previous BL match
Odds analysis
FC Bayern’s matches this season are synonymous with goals. On the one hand, Munich have Harry Kane and the best offense in the league. But the record champions have not been able to score a goal in ten league games.
As already mentioned, FCB are also in fourth-last place in the goals conceded statistics for the second half of the season. These figures give rise to a number of betting options in the Bayern vs Cologne preview.
For example, although no first division team has scored fewer goals, I think the visitors are capable of scoring. If you follow my assessment, you could play the bet “Cologne to score” at odds of 1.66 at Bwin.
Of course, the bet “Both teams to score” also makes sense. For this you get odds of 1.75 at Crazybuzzer. All information about the new bookmaker can be found in our detailed Crazybuzzer test.
As an average of 4.1 goals have been scored in the BL matches involving Bayern this season, the bet “Over 3.5 goals” is also an option. You can get odds of 1.80 for this at Betano.
The EffZeh can hope again!
Last weekend, Cologne faced the important basement duel against Bochum. In a weak game, VfL took the lead with their only decent attack from play.
The home side only woke up in the closing stages and turned the game around with two goals shortly before the end (90th and 90th +2). Despite the three-pointer, EffZeh remain in 17th place.
However, the gap to the first non-relegation place is only four points. The three-pointer against Bochum ended a negative run of seven Bundesliga games without a win (4U, 3N).
The morale shown by the team in the last-minute win should now provide new momentum. On the one hand, the Billy Goats are still unbeaten away from home under coach Schultz.
When will the second away win follow?
However, with five away draws in a row, not much ground could really be made up here. FC Köln have won just one of their last 15 league games away from home (8U, 6N).
They have not won three away from home in seven games (5U, 2N). Only four teams have collected fewer points at their opponents’ grounds this season.
The Billy Goats also have the weakest offense in the top flight with 23 goals. Now striker Davie Selke is also out for the long term. However, EffZeh have only conceded one defeat in their last five league games and have picked up five points.
In addition to Selke, Kilian, Martel, Uth and Diehl will also be missing on Saturday. For Waldschmidt, who scored the winning goal against Bochum, a starting appearance is likely to come too soon
Bayern are unbeaten against Cologne in 19 league games (17S, 2U). Munich do not have a longer unbeaten streak against any other current first division team.
The same applies vice versa: no other team in the top flight has gone longer without a win than the record champions. FCB’s most recent defeat in Cologne was in 2011 (2:3)
The last home defeat against the Billy Goats was in 2009 (1:2). However, the Domstädter have managed to keep the last three matches reasonably close.
There was a draw at the Allianz Arena (1:1 in January 2023) and then two home defeats with a one-goal difference. Tuchel’s side also only won the first leg 1-0 in Müngersdorf this season
My Bayern Cologne tip:
What face will Bayern show against Cologne on Saturday? The focus is naturally on the second leg in the top flight. Will the record champions still manage the balancing act this time?
Above all because Tuchel will certainly rest some of his regular players. In the end, I have no doubt that Munich will win at home. A few goals are also likely to be scored, however they are distributed in the end.
The club cannot afford a poor performance or an embarrassment against the EffZeh so close to the second clash with Arsenal. Then the positive mood would be shattered again.
My Bayern Cologne prediction is therefore: Victory Bayern & Over 3.5 goals!
