Gladbach – Dortmund betting tip
With the 0:1 defeat against VfB Stuttgart on the last matchday, a proud BVB winning streak of five Bundesliga trebles came to an abrupt end.
The Black & Yellows had actually played a good game against the in-form Swabians and scored significantly more expected goals (2.48 xG) than the third-placed team (1.58 xG).
In the upcoming Borussia duel with the Gladbach foals, I do not expect a collapse of the Terzic selection, but rather a dominant performance.
This is of course also due to the fact that after the narrow 2:1 defeat at Atletico Madrid, the Westphalians can be expected to have a broad chest due to their once again presentable performance!
On the other side, my verdict on BMG’s win in Wolfsburg (3:1) was somewhat different. The Foals turned around a 0:1 deficit after the break, but ended up with only 1.08 expected goals on the stat sheet.
Furthermore, Borussia Dortmund’s record in recent matches is clearly in their favor. BVB have won 14 of the last 17 Borussia duels and thus almost had a permanent subscription to victory.
For my Gladbach Dortmund betting tip, I’m therefore happy about the odds of around 2.05 at Happybet and am backing BVB to win!
The forecast of the betting providers?
During the course of the season, a picture of the Foals has developed in my mind’s eye that resembles that of a relegated team. I am therefore surprised that Gladbach are currently only five points off seventh place.
The win odds of 3.20 in the Interwetten app for a Foals win differ far less from my expectations. This puts the bookmaker in the middle of the usual BMG win odds of between 3.10 and 3.38.
Dortmund were still playing at Atletico Madrid’s Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday, which obviously had a positive effect on the high odds of around 2.05 for a three-pointer for the Black & Yellows.
A points-split should hardly play a role in your thoughts. The last 21 Borussia duels were recorded without a single draw
Analysis: Gladbach vs Dortmund
Standard situations appear at the top of the match schedule for both Borussia teams. With the exception of Leverkusen and Bayern Munich (18 goals each), no Bundesliga team has been more successful from a resting ball than BMG and BVB (17 goals each).
However, the list of similarities ends relatively quickly. While the Foals have the third-weakest defense in the German top flight (54), BVB have the third-best defense in the Bundesliga (1.2 goals conceded per game).
However, the Black & Yellows’ overall figures in no way reflect how solid BVB’s defense has been in the second half of the season so far.
With the exception of Bayer 04 Leverkusen (7 goals conceded), no other team in the second half of the season has been harder to break down than BVB (8 goals conceded)
The Terzic squad’s performances of late have always been accompanied by spirited defending – the basis for the third-best record of all Bundesliga clubs in the second half of the season (23 points).
Gladbach, with eleven points from eleven games in the second half of the season, are miles away from such a result. In addition to the defense, the attacking play sometimes lacked esprit, with the result that four league games this year have already ended without BMG scoring.
Dortmund, on the other hand, have already left the pitch without conceding a goal five times in the 2024 calendar year. The Foals’ attackers are therefore likely to face an extremely tough test.
In the comparison between the BMG attack and the BVB defense, I give the Dortmund defenders a clear advantage. This leads me to a really exciting value bet:
“Gladbach Under 0.5 goals” is slightly over the 4.00 mark, making it a classic case for a freebet.
Analysis of odds
The public know only too well from recent Borussia duels that a tired afternoon kick is an exception in this pairing.
During the previous four meetings between Gladbach and Dortmund, the adrenaline level in the stadium regularly boiled over the edge of the pot thanks to a total of 25 goals scored.
These memories of a goal-filled spectacle have also stuck in the minds of Crazybuzzer. You will almost always find odds of under 1.40 for a match with “Over 2.5 goals”.
Betting odds in this region are undoubtedly no reason to shout for joy or the like. But perhaps I can get you more excited with another option.
A soccer bet on “Under 3.5 goals” is a little out of line compared to the last sets, but may be crowned with success. Dortmund have only allowed 29 percent of their guest appearances this season to swell to “Over 3.5 goals.”
The BVB defense radiates great strength away from home
Mats Hummels is on the last meters of his career. His outstanding positional play masks his speed disadvantages, meaning he can continue to be part of a flawless BVB defense – even if not everything seemed quite as solid in the quarter-final first leg at Atletico.
Together with his teammates, the central defender has nevertheless developed mechanisms that have kept Borussia Dortmund from conceding a goal in five of seven home matches in 2024.
The fifth-placed team in the Bundesliga has not conceded more than two goals away from home since the turn of the year. That is worth its weight in gold in the battle for a return to the Champions League and is the sole best result in this calendar year.
As a result of this increasing defensive stability away from the Signal Iduna Park, only league leaders Leverkusen (11) now have a stronger away defense than Borussia Dortmund (13).
Tohuwabohu in the Gladbach defense
The contrast to the Foals’ defense could hardly be greater. Gladbach have the third weakest defense in the Bundesliga (54 goals conceded) and leave only four teams with more home goals against behind them (23).
Obviously, BMG coach Gerardo Seoane still needs to invest a lot of time in his back line. Above all, the processes when working against the ball are rarely right, especially from the run of play (39 goals conceded).
The issue of defending the rest of the ball is a sensitive one in the Foals’ country and requires further investigation. In addition, the home side clearly make too many mistakes in their build-up play, which they are not always able to iron out.
Gladbach have already conceded 48 goals after losing possession within 40 meters of their own box – a league high!
Mistakes like these must not happen to the hosts against BVB, otherwise this match literally screams for a win with at least a two-goal difference.
I would recommend such a bet to you anyway. In any case, I wouldn’t blame you for playing the odds of 3.10 for a “Dortmund win (HC -1)” in combination with this Oddset bonus
If Dortmund are still a little sleepy after the exhausting game against Atletico Madrid, the BVB fans’ worry lines need not be too big.
Even falling behind would not be a complete disaster for the team in fifth place in the table. Gladbach have often been in the lead this season, but ended up conceding plenty of points (27).
Gerardo Seoane’s team gave the best example of this in the first-round clash, when Gladbach let a 2-0 lead slip and the players ultimately strolled off the pitch with their heads hanging down in a 4-2 defeat.
For me, the run-up to this match brought back pretty strong flashbacks to the Foals’ previous home game. There, BMG lost 3-0 to SC Freiburg and only managed to keep very few spectators in the stadium until the end.
Dortmund are the second-best away team in the Bundesliga this season (27 points) and have amassed an almost cheeky goal difference of +15 in away stadiums in the Bundesliga.
The Black & Yellows have won two of their last three visits (2-0 against Bayern, 2-0 against Union Berlin) without conceding a goal. Another BVB treble in combination with a clean sheet can earn you odds of 4.80.
My Gladbach BVB tip:
Dortmund is the clear favorite for me. Gladbach have never won two games in a row this season and didn’t necessarily convince against Wolfsburg either (1.08 xG).
Edin Terzic could be satisfied with his team’s performance on the last matchday despite a defeat against VfB Stuttgart (0:1).
In the course of the top match, the CL quarter-finalists actually deserved much more than a defeat (2.48:1.56 xG).
My Gladbach Dortmund prediction: Victory BVB!
