Champions League, Wednesday, 05/03/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
A German duel in the round of 16? That we are able to experience this again! Our Champions League tips have already delivered a surprise or two this season, and now my Bayern Leverkusen tip is ready to perhaps deliver the next one.
The Werkself has become a real bogey team for the German record champions, with none of the three previous matches won in the current season – and that’s exactly why I would risk the “Double Chance X2” bet here.
Bayer had a great preliminary round and made it to the last sixteen without having to play the playoffs. Munich, on the other hand, faced Celtic and only managed to advance after scoring a late goal. Given their own high standards, that was definitely not good enough!
But now that FCB is starting with a home game, the bookmakers are on its side. If you take a quick look at the odds, you’ll see an average of 1.80 to 4.20. However, since the fans know that only one of the last five home games against Leverkusen has been won, no one is likely to enter the Allianz Arena euphorically.
It is the first time that these two clubs have faced each other on the international stage, which in itself makes the game special. And of course, the same applies to FC Bayern: since the final of the 2025 Champions League will take place in Munich, we can lose everything in this round of 16!
The bookmakers’ prediction
The Munich team have only lost one of their last eleven home games in the last sixteen, and are also doing very well at home in the Bundesliga. So it makes sense to me that they are favorites on Wednesday and that you can get odds of 1.80 for the home win tip.
Since 2012, Leverkusen have won twice at the Isar, but the last time was only in December, when FCB were knocked out of the DFB Cup. So if you want to go all out and bet on the Werkself, you will find odds of around 4.20.
Three of the last five games played on Munich soil had no winner. In this respect, a draw bet could well be an option, the odds of 3.80 definitely pay off.
AI prediction Bayern vs Leverkusen: ChatGPT is betting on this
Of course, you can also ask ChatGPT about this German duel, but the forecasts there should be treated with a little caution. What betting suggestions did it come up with?
The high-risk bet is that Leverkusen will win. In principle, I can imagine any result, including a (narrow) victory for the guests. Since they like to play against Bayern under Alonso, you could definitely consider this tip.
At the same time, the AI says: “Leverkusen scores first” is a good tip. I have to point out that Bayern is yet to concede a goal in the first half at home this CL season. So I would be a bit more cautious here.
How many goals will there be in the end? The AI suggests betting on “Over 2.5 goals”. Since the last three duels only saw three goals, I’m not sure whether it will be a tactical duel with fewer goals.
Analysis: Bayern vs Leverkusen
Did Bayern wish for THIS draw for the Champions League round of 16? Not necessarily! They have not won against Bayer Leverkusen in six games, and in the last four they have only scored once.
1:1, 0:1, 0:0? The three duels that have already taken place this season were definitely not spectacular. Now, for the first time since 2013, they will face Bayer outside of the domestic competitions.
Bayern fans have fond memories: it was the 2-1 in the final against Borussia Dortmund! The last time Leverkusen faced a Bundesliga opponent in the European Cup, they lost 2-3 to HSV in the 2007/08 UEFA Cup.
Of course, FCB knows that it will definitely have to improve on its performance in the playoffs. After the 2-1 win at Celtic Glasgow, it was very nearly beaten at home, only a very late goal from Alphonso Davies avoided defeat.
Rating Analysis
I suspect that both sides want to avoid making the first mistake of the game in order to avoid falling behind. Therefore, I do not bet on a splendid start, but can well imagine a 0-0 at half-time. At Betano, this tip brings in odds of 3.05.
On top of that, you can get up to 100 euros from this bookmaker using the promotional code. At the same time, the bet “More goals in the second half” is also realistic. If this tip is right in the end, you can look forward to odds of 1.93.
If I had to choose one result bet, I would go for a 1-1. As far as I’m concerned, the two teams will go head to head on an equal footing, so a 1-1 at odds of 7.50 could well be worthwhile.
Are the Bavarians stable enough?
The German record champions have not performed convincingly, with a few wobbles already during the group phase. The only clear results were against Donetsk (5:1) and Dinamo Zagreb (9:2) – Leverkusen is really a completely different proposition.
The Bavarians have kept only two clean sheets at home this season, so they are leaking a lot defensively. At least they passed their domestic dress rehearsal with flying colors, as they collected a 3-1 win in Stuttgart last Friday.
It was the first time since the end of October that there was an away win with a two-goal lead.
Meanwhile, you should set your sights on the new customer bonus from Bet365. Click on the graphic to reveal the bonus code and use it when registering to get up to €100 in betting credits.
Leverkusen with slight away problems
Manuel Neuer, who was also in goal at the Neckar, celebrates a very special anniversary on Wednesday.
He is about to make his 150th appearance in the premier class, which only Iker Casillas (177) has achieved before him! Will a competitor from the Bundesliga, of all places, spoil this special match for him?
Leverkusen are seen by some as favorites in this duel, saved themselves the playoffs. They lost 0-4 in Liverpool, and then suffered a second defeat despite taking the lead shortly before the final whistle in the 1-2 loss to Atletico Madrid.
What is quite striking: After the 4-0 win at Feyenoord Rotterdam, no more away games were won, while at home Milan (1-0), RB Salzburg (5-0), Inter (1-0) and Sparta Prague (2-0) were beaten.
Bayern should therefore be aware of just how strong Leverkusen are in their own stadium as soon as the CL anthem sounds, making their home game all the more important from Munich’s point of view. How have Leverkusen been doing in the Bundesliga recently?
In the top game at Eintracht Frankfurt, they bagged a 4-1 win, which was impressive! In any case, they have only ended a game without a point once, in a 2-3 defeat to RB Leipzig at the end of August.
Florian Wirtz, of course, is particularly worthy of note. The national player has already scored seven goals, and the last person to achieve this for Bayer was Michael Ballack in the 2001/02 season – and that season saw the Werkself go all the way to the final!
If you want to bet on a Wirtz goal on Wednesday, you can get odds of 4.50 at Bet365. Of course, you should also be aware that Wirtz has not scored against the German record champions since spring 2020.
My Bayern Leverkusen Tip:
A German team will definitely be in the Champions League quarterfinals! Bayern finally want to beat Leverkusen again and should lay the foundation for this at home. However, it has not been easy against the Werkself for several years.
In the 3-1 win in Stuttgart, the FCB only convinced after the break, whereas the 4-1 win for Leverkusen against Frankfurt was a bit more gripping. To be honest, I don’t think the home side will be able to get a grip on their current bogey team.
I’m not necessarily betting on a defeat, but after the last few months, I simply cannot imagine them winning. Bayer also came out on top in the cup tie, which is why I am now betting:
Leverkusen will not lose on the Isar!
