Champions League, Wednesday, 05/03/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
I had to smile when I watched the Champions League conference on match day 7. That was the match day when we saw the sensational 4-5 between Benfica Lisbon and Barcelona.
In fact, the conference almost became a single match broadcast given how often we had to switch to the Portuguese capital. Fortunately for us, we will get two more episodes of this in the Champions League round of 16.
In my Benfica Lisbon Barcelona tip, I am a bit conservative with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. But the odds are not exactly small at NEO.bet for this combo.
Until the 78th minute, Benfica led 4-2, but in the end they still lost to the current La Liga leaders. Without question, we saw the most spectacular match of the league phase premiere in the premier class that day, which I really liked.
In particular, the smaller teams have a chance to go into the winter break with luck, as was also seen in the other international competitions. And the big teams have to be able to beat anyone for the title anyway!
The bookmakers’ prediction
A colorful first duel, are the bookmakers having a hard time picking a favorite for the first leg of the round of 16? No, Barcelona are ahead with 1.82, a Benfica win (3.75) would be a small surprise.
NEO.bet offers us the best odds for a draw, 4.05. I also see Barcelona in front, but 1.82 seems a bit too much for me considering how strong the Eagles are at home. Especially since we still have a second leg at the Camp Nou and a draw wouldn’t be a disaster for Hansi Flick’s team.
AI prediction Benfica Lisbon vs. Barcelona: ChatGPT’s prediction
ChatGPT has once again served us three odds on a plate with different odds morsels. For the gentle sports betting stomach, the AI suggests the bet that Barcelona will score the first goal of the game.
We are talking about odds in the 1.60 range. To be honest, I’m not a fan of this selection, as it involves too much risk for me for too low odds. What do the statistics say? They speak in favor of the bet in any case, as Barca has scored the 1-0 in eight of its last nine matches.
In the first meeting, however, the Benfica fans were able to cheer for the first time and Barca has recently allowed various early goals. I’m more in line with the medium-risk variant from ChatGPT, as it closely resembles my bet.
“Both teams score & over 3.5 goals”. The AI dares to go one drawer higher in the goal market here, and is rewarded with a more attractive odds: 2.10. However, I want to hedge my bets on the most likely of all soccer outcomes, the 2-1 results.
The artificial intelligence has also selected this as a high-risk tip, or more precisely, a 2:1 for the Catalans. With odds of 9.00, it can quickly make your mouth water.
However, Barca’s results have been so inconsistent this year that I definitely cannot recommend an exact result tip.
Analysis: Benfica Lisbon vs. Barcelona
The best option is still the combination of all of them. “Over 2.5 goals & both teams score” for just under 1.60, which in my opinion still offers value.
I had hoped that we would get odds in that range for the teams scoring, but I think a 1-1 draw is pretty unlikely anyway.
In view of their past results, the statistics don’t really play a role in my bet. After all, Barca has kept five clean sheets in their last seven matches, but we are talking about Alaves, Valencia, Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas here, and a 4-0 win at home against a weakening Real Sociedad.
I see Benfica on a completely different level, especially in front of their home crowd. Barca showed against Atletico Madrid that they can quickly find themselves behind against a strong opponent when they drew 4-4. They let a comfortable 4-2 lead in the Copa del Rey semi-final first leg slip in the final minutes to draw.
Once again, we saw one of those wild Barca performances, with Atletico scoring in the first and sixth minute before Barca were able to celebrate four times. Incidentally, the third-last goal Barca conceded against Sevilla (4-1) was in the eighth minute, which is why I’m really not a fan of the AI assessment this time.
Rating Analysis
71 goals in 26 league games, by far the most goals and chances over the entire season. What’s more, Lionel Messi’s former team has retaken the league lead after an initially weak winter and found its way back on track.
And yes, the defense is stabilizing too. 210 shots on target have been allowed by Barcelona so far, which is also a figure that no other team in the Spanish top flight has bettered. In terms of expected goals against, however, the picture is different.
Due to the high-flying style of play, the chances that Barca has allowed have often been extremely dangerous and Benfica will be counting on that in the first leg. In general, we can expect a match in which, due to the playing DNA of the clubs, it will be all out from the start.
You can use the Bet365 bet configurator to build a better “Over 2.5 goals” bet. In addition to this bet, you can add “Over 0.5 goals” in half-time one and two for an impressive 1.54, which is also tax-free.
Benfica vs Barcelona Odds: Strong odds for a Lewandowski goal
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With a number of goals to be expected, the top scorers market is of course interesting, especially since Barca can draw on unlimited attacking talent. Robert Lewandowski is even the third most prolific goalscorer in Champions League history.
This season, the Pole, who is flourishing under Flick as he did during his time at Bayern, has scored nine times. Only Serhou Guirassy, who has played two more games in the playoffs, has scored more.
For a Lewandowski goal, we get a strong 2.10. At league level, the number nine already has 21 goals. The 2.10 is a strong rate, since the current form of the center forward is also good, after all, he scored in six of his last seven starting line-ups.
The odds of the other Barca players are only slightly higher, but I am less tempted by a significantly weaker yield in recent weeks.
Tough fight against Monaco in the playoffs
In the Portuguese league, Benfica are in a close battle for the championship with Sporting and Porto, currently in second place, level on points with Sporting at the top. But Braga are also only six points behind.
After a few defeats at the start of the year, February was fabulous: six games, six wins. Only one of those was a draw, against Monaco, but that was enough to see them through to the knockout stages of the Champions League.
To keep the pressure down, the league game against Gil Vicente was postponed last weekend. Barca finally had to play against San Sebastian at the weekend, a few days before that against Atletico in the cup, but were able to save themselves the CL playoffs.
So I don’t see any freshness advantage for either team here, but instead a personnel advantage for Barca. Benfica have to do without Alexander Bah, Florentino and Manu Silva in defense. In addition, Renato Sanches, Angel Di Maria and Tiago Gouveia are not there.
Barca, on the other hand, is concerned about Andreas Christensen and the long-term injured Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Marc Bernal.
My Benfica Lisbon Barcelona Tip:
Benfica naturally wants to take the lead at home, but has to make concessions in defense and that against perhaps the best offense in Europe. In the Champions League league duel, there was already a lot of noise.
Based on the line-ups, I don’t expect a long warm-up phase this time either, and like the betting providers, I expect a few goals for Barca in particular. However, the hosts will throw everything at them, are considered a real force at home, and have already scored four goals against Barca in the first duel.
My Benfica Lisbon Barcelona prediction: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals!
