League Cup Portugal Semifinal, Wednesday, 08/01/2025 at 20:45
That was a bitter setback for the Benfica Lisbon fans to digest. Because the first competitive game of the 2025 calendar year promptly brought with it the first back-to-back defeat of the entire season!
Quo Vadis, Benifca? According to my Benfica Braga tip, with Pavlidis in the center of the attack as the sole entertainer, nowhere! In fact, the Greek could be one of the reasons why his team once again looks old against Braga’s stable defense.
Benfica Lisbon have mostly put in strong performances this season, but they recently suffered an unexpected setback at home to the “Eagles from the North”, which prevented them from reclaiming the lead in the table that they had recently taken.
Despite dominating the game and having a high percentage of possession, the offense failed to score in the decisive moments. In particular, Vangelis Pavlidis is increasingly coming under fire for his poor performance against Braga.
: The Greek, who shone for Alkmaar last season, has scored just once in his last eight competitive appearances.
Coach Bruno Lage must now urgently consider whether to continue to rely on him or to change the offense in preparation for the rematch.
In any case, I firmly expect that if the personified chance death of the Lisboners once again acts as a lone striker, Lisbon could also lose out against this opponent in the cup rematch.
Braga surprised Portuguese football fans – as already mentioned – with their unexpected 2-1 away win at the Estádio da Luz.
The “Archebishops” took full advantage of their chances, while Benfica controlled the game but were unable to create any momentum in the decisive moments.
This victory was not only a morale boost for the Bragistas, but also a rare success in an otherwise disappointing season.
They may be in fourth place in the league, but the gap to the top three is so large that it will probably only be a matter of defending the Conference League starting place for them until the end.
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In addition, Braga are currently outside the promotion zone in the Europa League group stage, which further increases the importance of successes like the one against Benfica in order to gain something positive from the 2024/25 season after all.
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While Braga’s win rate at the Estádio da Luz was still a dream figure of around 8.50, it is now only 5.00 on average for the upcoming game at a neutral venue.
The encounter at the Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa promises to be a tense one. Benfica remain the favorites, but the recent faux pas could have given Braga added confidence.
Since the odds, which are much more balanced compared to a few days ago, have taken away my desire to believe that the Europa League participant can win again, I urgently needed alternatives on my betting slip.
I found what I was looking for in the popular betting option, according to which “Benfica will score fewer than 2.5 goals”.
With odds of just under 1.50, it is a better option for me than betting on Benfica to win, which would lead to an approximately identical sports betting payout.
It cannot be said that Benfica is a team that is weak in offense, but their showpiece is definitely their clever defense.
In fact, of their last eight domestic outings, they have only scored once, against bottom-of-the-league Estoril just before Christmas, and that is more than the 2.5 goals I am targeting.
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Conclusion: My Benfica Lisbon Braga prediction is that SLB will score less than 2.5 goals. Although the team creates chances, Pavlidis is currently lacking the necessary composure as an executor.
At the same time, Braga’s relatively low win rate shows that the “Arcebispos” should not be underestimated this time, which is why a bet on them is not only riskier but also less profitable than a few days ago.
Benfica will presumably rely on their usual solid defense on Wednesday to control the game.
Even if they win, the capital city team should not expect fireworks in offense, but rather a narrow, controlled victory.
For you, this means that goals will remain in short supply on Wednesday!