Champions League, Tuesday, December 10, 2024 at 9:00 p.m.
The sixth matchday of the Champions League is on the program. Bruges is welcoming visitors from Portugal. Sporting Lisbon has lost its way under the new head coach Tiago Teixeira.
The previously unbeaten capital city team has lost three of the four games. I’m not really optimistic about the match in Bruges.
I expect a very goal-scoring affair, prefer to avoid the initial market and am betting on “Over 2.5 goals” at Interwetten.
Sporting still celebrated a resounding 6-0 victory in the cup against amateur club Amarante, but the slump followed.
After almost three weeks without an A-team on the pitch, Arsenal were guests in the Champions League, and the comfortable victory against City was followed by a 5-1 defeat against Arsenal. And in the league, Sporting also failed to score twice.
The bookmakers’ forecast: After three consecutive defeats, Sporting are still favorites, at least that’s how the bookmakers see it.
After three consecutive defeats, Sporting are still favorites, at least that’s how the bookmakers see it. A bet on an away win can be placed at 2.25.
Bruges are at 3.20, with a draw considered the least likely outcome at 3.50. In view of the three defeats of the guests and a strong series of the Belgians, which I will discuss in a moment, the “double chance 1X” at 1.65 is worth considering. Does the AI have the odds on the screen too?
AI prediction Bruges vs. Sporting Lisbon: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
The “double chance 1X” is not on ChatGPT’s radar. Instead, she goes with my “over 2.5 goals” in the final selection; with these odds, she misses the “low risk” description.
In view of the teams’ recent results, the odds are obvious, especially since Bruges and Sporting have a good offensive game but have more problems defending.
For “medium risk”, the AI has selected a halftime/final score bet, namely that the guests from Lisbon will lead at halftime and after 90 minutes. This already gives us a whopping 3.20 odds, but after the last few Sporting appearances, I’m not convinced by the bet.
After all, Lisbon has already led at half-time in its three Champions League victories. However, the club has since lost this form. That’s why I prefer the high-risk option.
Here, the artificial intelligence has determined that Bruges will win by exactly one goal. For this bet, we are already in the 5.00 range.
Analysis: Bruges vs. Sporting Lisbon
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A defeat against Arsenal in the Champions League is still acceptable for Sporting, especially since their position in the Champions League remains excellent. But a 0-1 home loss to Santa Clara and a 1-2 loss to Moreirense are disastrous.
Three defeats in a row, after Sporting had not lost 18 games in a row, such an enormous break must be attributed, among other things, to the change of coach.
Especially since Sporting had won all 11 games with Ruben Amorim on the sidelines. During the last international break, the 39-year-old moved to Manchester United.
Odds Analysis
And how are things looking for Bruges at the moment? The club has now gone ten games without a loss, is only four points behind leaders Genk in the domestic league and is in second place.
In the Champions League, Bruges have played some strong games but have not always been rewarded for their efforts. As a result, they are only ranked 22nd, with two wins, a draw and two defeats from their first five appearances.
One bitter defeat was the 3-0 loss to BVB, in which Bruges was the better team for long spells. Bruges have won against Aston Villa and Sturm Graz, and got another point in the 1-1 draw at Celtic Park.
We have also seen at least three goals in five of the last six matches, with both teams scoring the same number of times. Both teams to score is 1.50. In combination with over 2.5 goals, a 1.85 is available from the betting providers.
Bruges vs. Sporting Lisbon Odds: Bruges are on target
Attacking is what characterizes Bruges, although with just four goals in the Champions League, this is not really apparent, at least in terms of the number of goals.
In the league, the picture is different, with Bruges leading the way with 36 goals against Genk after 17 matchdays. Bruges is top of the league in the “opportunities created” category with 296 attempts on goal.
And Sporting has conceded eight goals in the last three games, so the “Over 1.5 goals for Bruges” bet at 2.25 is worth considering.
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Gyökeres-Treffer as a doubling-up rate
It fits that Sporting, purely in terms of the quality of their opponents’ chances, is one of the most vulnerable defenses in the Champions League, as confirmed by the opponents’ “Expected Goals” value.
The important man up front for Lisbon remains Viktor Gyökeres, who already has five Champions League goals to his name, and his goal scoring rate is just below the 2.00 mark.
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The only official clash between Bruges and Sporting has been in 1967.
In the first round of the European Cup Winners’ Cup, Sporting prevailed 2-1 in the second leg, after drawing 0-0 in the first leg.
In terms of injuries, Bruges has a slight advantage, with all players except Bjorn Meijer present.
Sporting will continue to be without Nuno Santos and Pedro Goncalves. Eduardo Quaresma is also missing.
My Bruges Sporting Lisbon tip:
Sporting want to get back on track on Tuesday. But I don’t really trust the Portuguese against Bruges. The hosts have not been beaten in ten games and have been hard to beat in the Champions League.
Lisbon has a clearly better squad, but at the same time has had major problems since the change of coach.
Ultimately, I am relying on the strong offenses of both teams, both Sporting and Bruges rarely keep clean sheets.
My Bruges vs Sporting Lisbon prediction: Over 2.5 goals!
