NFL 2024/25: Buccaneers – Raiders
Don’t miss out on two things in Week 14: The Bet365 offer code “VIPANGEBOT” and a Buccaneers Raiders tip modeled after my predictions.
I’m expecting a more even game at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday than the oddsmakers with Apple Pay might lead you to believe based on their odds.
Las Vegas could lose, but still put an astonishing number of points on the scoreboard!
In this exciting duel between the Buccaneers and the Raiders, we take a look at the form curves of both teams, which could hardly be more different. Las Vegas, however, has improved a lot since the dismissal of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.
Although the jump from 32nd to 20th place in the EPA per game doesn’t exactly qualify as a “giant leap”, the Raiders’ offense under Scott Turner is suddenly showing signs of life again.
Especially with Aidan O’Connell returning from injury in Week 13, the Raiders offense looked much more dynamic.
O’Connell led Las Vegas to 340 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City and was only prevented by a fumbled snap and some questionable referee calls from celebrating an unexpected victory over the defending champions!
The ball handling game has improved noticeably and the Raiders’ output has increased from 280 yards per game in the first nine weeks to 377 yards in the last three games.
What I’m trying to tell you? The former Oakland-based franchise has lost each of its last eight NFL games, but even if they don’t make the 2024 NFL playoffs, they’re on the road to recovery!
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Let’s now take a closer look at the Buccaneers, who are clearly favored in the betting markets. Although the Bucs have won their last two games, their opponents were not exactly high-caliber with the Giants and the Panthers.
The Tampa Bay defense, which has struggled in recent weeks, currently ranks 27th in the league in EPA per play and shows major weaknesses, especially in pass defense.
Since Week 5, the Buccaneers rank 31st in EPA per dropback and allow their opponents to complete more than half of their pass attempts with 51.9%!
That’s a challenge, especially against the Raiders, who are gaining momentum under Scott Turner and are now a serious threat to many secondaries in the NFL.
The Buccaneers’ weakness in pass defense could be crucial in this matchup. If Las Vegas continues to play as confidently as they have in recent weeks, Tampa Bay will have a hard time keeping up with the Raiders’ offensive power.
A touchdown lead for Tampa Bay might be too much to overcome in this game, especially considering the difficulties in pass defense.
Therefore, I would lean towards favoring the Raiders with a HC +7.5, as Las Vegas should be quite dangerous to the home side on current form.
Still, I’d be surprised if the Floridians let themselves be robbed of a win at home!
If you take a closer look at the data, you’ll immediately notice that their last six head-to-head duels have always resulted in more than 50 points. That bodes well for another entertaining game, especially now that Las Vegas has noticeably improved offensively.
With the current form of the Raiders and the strength of their offense, this one could be a real banger. The Buccaneers Raiders odds offer an interesting opportunity here.
The over/under line has been set at 45.5 points by the bookies, and looking at the recent performances of both teams, this encounter could actually top the 50-point mark again.
My additional condition is therefore: “Over 45.5 points” at attractive odds of 2.52.
In addition, it might be worth betting on Mike Evans. The Buccaneers’ wide receiver caught a touchdown last week against Carolina and is currently showing strong form.
In a game that is likely to be hard-fought and characterized by many pass attempts, I see the probability of another touchdown from Evans at over 50%.
The associated odds of around 2.05 for “Evans with one or more touchdown catches” therefore more than satisfy me.
Conclusion: In my Buccaneers Raiders prediction, I’m backing a Buccaneers win and an “over” of more than 45.5 points. The Raiders have made strides, especially in the passing game, but the defense is not suited for an NFL playoff appearance.
Tampa Bay will ultimately get the win, but Las Vegas will keep up surprisingly well and make the game exciting with plenty of points. Watch out for Mike Evans, who should pluck a six-pointer or two out of the sky.
My Buccaneers Raiders tip: Win Bucs & Over 45.5 points!
