Serie A, Friday, 07/03/2025 at 20:45
This Serie A game promises to be an exciting contest, with both teams currently a little further up the table than I would have expected before the season.
Meanwhile, in line with my Cagliari Genoa tip, numerous betting providers are offering you interesting odds without tax, which make betting even more exciting.
Both sides have a lot to gain and could collect valuable points in the fight against relegation with a win. But somehow I still have the feeling that the game will be rather tough…
Cagliari’s form has suffered greatly in recent weeks. With the 1-2 defeat against Bologna last weekend, four of the last six games have now been lost (1 win, 1 draw).
This poor run has seen the team cut from a comfortable three points clear of the relegation zone to just one point ahead of the drop zone, a dreaded spectre that is being seen more and more often on the sunny Mediterranean island…
With upcoming matches against strong teams from the upper half of the table, the outlook for the Sardinians is not particularly promising and the team urgently needs to get back on track – preferably against a beatable team like Genoa.
The Sardinians have repeatedly made a positive impression in their own stadium this season. Since the beginning of 2025, they have won two of their four home games, but they have also lost two games.
It remains to be seen whether such an even return will remain, as their record against teams that are further up the table is extremely poor. Of the last eleven meetings with such opponents, they have only won two (3 draws, 6 defeats).
And coincidentally, the upcoming opponent, who is expected at the Unipol Domus on Friday, is six points ahead of the Sardinians in the standings! Not a good omen, then!
The guests from Genoa are traveling to Sardinia with a completely different starting position. The team has established itself in the middle of the table and just has to avoid stagnating in no-man’s-land here.
The Grifoni are almost as far from the top of the table as they are from the relegation zone, which means they need another solid result to stay in the safe zone.
Interestingly, in each of the last 12 league games, the Ligurians have always had a different result than in the game before (4 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses).
This inconsistent pattern suggests that the team will probably not play another draw, as was the case against Empoli last matchday…
Genoa’s poor away form is striking. After all, they have not won a single away game in their last five Serie A matches, which makes the date for Cagliari quite tempting – regardless of their lower position in the table.
Nevertheless, there are rays of hope in store for Friday! Genoa are particularly encouraged by the fact that they have emerged victorious in two of their last three away games against the Sardinians.
This record could give the visitors a boost for the upcoming game, especially if they manage to rely on their defensive approach and counter from a stable defense.
Using the Merkur Bets app to bet on a draw at half-time at odds of currently 1.95 may sound bold at first – but it’s not.
That’s because in 16 of the 27 Serie A games in which Genoa have been involved this season, the score was actually level at half-time. Coincidence?
Genoa not only shows a preference for low-scoring first halves, but also confirms this trend over the entire 90 minutes.
In the last four games, the team has scored fewer than three goals in each game, which indicates a stable defense and a rather cautious offense.
When a team regularly delivers close matches, the probability increases that this will continue. Especially against similarly matched opponents, the games often end with few goals.
In view of these facts, an “under 2.5 goals” bet at odds of around 1.77 could prove to be a worthwhile wager.
Conclusion: Both teams will certainly do everything they can to get the three points to achieve their respective goals for the season.
While Cagliari urgently needs to shake off its weak form, a win could get the “Grifoni” back on the right track and further away from the relegation places.
However, based on the playing style of both opponents, I tend to expect that there will be fewer than 2.5 goals on Friday.
My tip: Under 2.5 goals
