World Ice Hockey Championship group stage, Tuesday, 21.05.2024
The last preliminary round match of Group A at the thrilling 2024 Ice Hockey World Championship ends with a match that we could see again in the final in just under a week’s time. The defending champions and the strong hosts will face off.
Many expect a thoroughly even affair, but in my Canada-Czech Republic betting tip, I take the view that the Maple Leafs have now reached exactly the right point to be able to advance to the final without too many problems …
Canada and the Czech Republic will battle it out in the final group game to finish first in Group A and thus have the privilege of facing their “easier” quarter-final opponents.
In contrast to the hosts, Team Canada has managed to win every game so far, even if one of these victories against Austria only came in overtime and was therefore a complete surprise given the stark difference in quality.
But experience shows that we always have to keep an eye out for such minor slip-ups from the Maple Leafs in the group stage of a World Cup, as they usually only reach the desired operating temperature later in the tournament and then become virtually unbeatable.
In my Canada-Czech Republic betting tip, I have only included group games between the two teams that are on a par with each other – and therefore only those against Switzerland and Finland.
Paying attention to an 8:0 victory of the Czech Republic over the overtaxed Great Britain would be simply misleading if you want to select a winning bet on your own sports betting app.
And the Canadians are slightly better in this regard! The North Americans defeated both Switzerland (3:2) and Finland (5:3) in regulation time.
The Czech Republic, on the other hand, had to go into overtime against both the ice comrades (1:2) and the Finns (1:0) – and not always successfully
What distinguishes the Canadians, meanwhile, is that their defensive play has improved significantly since the game against Austria.
However, it is primarily thanks to their strong offense that they have survived the group stage so far without defeat.
There are certainly numerous talented NHL players in the squad, but some of them, such as Dylan Cozens with eight scoring points, have made the biggest contribution to the 28 goals the Maple Leafs have scored so far.
While the Canadians have by far the best offense in Group A, the Czechs focus heavily on defending their goal. With a total of only 10 goals conceded, they have done an excellent job.
However, as the Maple Leafs are now focused again since their quasi-debacle against Austria, I have the impression that the hosts will once again lose out to their “fearful opponent on ice” despite the support in the stands.
Watch out: At the 2022 & 2023 World Championship, CAN won 6:1 and 3:1 respectively, while the Czech Republic’s last victory over a Canadian ice hockey team at an A World Championship was over 14 years ago (!).
The Canadians won’t dominate all three periods, but on balance, like the bookies, I’m also leaning towards a win for the defending champions.
However, I have to admit that I was hoping for odds of around 2.25 for a pure win bet on the Maple Leafs against this opponent.
In reality, however, the value actually called by the bookies is around 1.92, so you can only pick up a little “value” here. Therefore, I wouldn’t blame anyone for turning their back on this bet altogether.
If it were a quarter-final match, I’d be much more optimistic about a win for the defending champions, but the Maple Leafs might be able to pull away a little in the final group game …
Be prepared for a heated game with plenty of niggles. Because both nations are among the most unsportsmanlike at this tournament.
The Canadians have already accumulated 69 penalty minutes, while the Czech Republic have also had to spend quite a lot of time in the “cool box” with a total of 56 minutes.
A relatively large number of power play situations can therefore be expected. However, an analysis of the data did not reveal which side would benefit more from this
Conclusion: Secretly, I think the final will be CAN vs SWE. In my opinion, the Czech Republic lack the necessary offensive power to actually defeat a team like Canada.
However, there shouldn’t be many goals scored, as the host nation’s defense is probably the best at this tournament.
All in all, the defending champions are the better team, who have already received a wake-up call after the semi-final defeat to Austria and have shown a marked improvement of late.
My Canada-Czech Republic betting tip is: DC 1X & Over 6.5 goals
