Copa Libertadores 2024, Thursday, 30.05.2024
The Copa Libertadores welcomes the last matchday of the group stage and has an exciting clash on the schedule. Cerro Porteno host Colo Colo – the winner advances to the knockout phase.
After five matchdays, both teams have the same number of points (5), an identical goal difference (3:4) and the same number of away goals (2). For my Cerro Porteno Colo Colo betting tip, I’m using the “Double chance X2” bet at Oddset and am happy with the odds of 1.70.
90 minutes of thrilling soccer await the spectators at the Estadio General Pablo Rojas. Losing is forbidden for both teams and yet the best bookmakers see no clear favorite.
If Cerro Porteno win in their own stadium, you will see a maximum of 2.15 times your stake. A win for the Chilean visitors will see odds of up to 3.75 on the market
If you see a slight advantage for Colo Colo, a free bet would definitely be appropriate, as both teams have only won one game so far this Copa Libertadores season.
The games in Group A have been difficult to predict so far, which is why I prefer to play a double chance rather than a classic three-way bet
Caution is advised above all due to the similar level of attack and defense, with Colo Colo having a slight advantage in offense.
Cerro Porteno scored the fewest expected goals of all 32 teams in the entire competition (2.3 xG) and only created six big chances.
The Colo Colo officials did not see any more “big chances” either. Compared to the hosts from Paraguay, however, the visitors created a higher number of expected goals (3.9 xG).
In defense, both teams hardly let themselves be offered anything. After five group games, both teams have conceded fewer than 3.0 expected goals and are two of the five strongest expected defenses.
A reference to Chile’s three red cards is unavoidable and should show that “Los Albos” have already spent some time outnumbered.
If the visitors don’t put a foot wrong in this game and prevent a stumble due to unnecessary sending-offs, they should have a better chance of winning
Despite this self-destructive tendency, Colo Colo averaged 61.9% possession in this edition of the Copa Libertadores and were fairly dominant most of the time.
Typical of a team with a lot of possession, Jorge Almiron’s side immediately counter-pressed after losing the ball and snatched possession in the opposition’s disorder (5.0 possessions in the attacking third per game).
Colo Colo coach Jorge Almiron is well aware of how a deep run in the most important South American club competition can be achieved. The coach, who was hired in January 2024, reached the final with Boca Juniors just a few months ago.
This experience will help the visitors to maintain their dominant style of play and leave the pitch without defeat despite playing away from home.
Any draw with goals scored in the match would also allow Colo Colo to progress. The reason: Should the Chileans score, they would have scored more away goals, which would count as the next tie-breaker after the points and goals are equal.
Cerro Porteno believe they are at the opposite end of the playing spectrum, meaning that possession is not prioritized at all.
Of all the participants, the hosts prefer to give up the ball (36.9 percent possession). In most cases, however, this cost them danger in attack (2.8 shots on goal per game).
At least the favored style of play contributes to a defense that has only conceded 15 goals in 20 league games. The Paraguayan side have also kept a clean sheet in both Copa Libertadores home games (1-0, 0-0).
If this leads you to bet on “Colo Colo Under 0.5 goals”, this Oddset bonus might fit into your mind game and the odds of 2.20.
If only one goal has been scored in two home games and both teams defend more than they attack, the odds of 1.73 in the Betway app for “Both teams to score: No” might suit you.
You can’t draw any great added value from the history of this pairing. Cerro Porteno won two meetings, but Colo Colo won the first match in this group stage (1:0).
If a decision had to be made between “Colo Colo win” and a “draw”, my choice would clearly be the draw. Both teams are too similar in their offensive and defensive output
On the final matchday of the group stage, Cerro Porteno and Colo Colo will play a do-or-die game with the winner progressing to the knockout phase. Any draw with goals would at least give the visitors a chance of progressing.
In terms of play, the Chileans should be a little superior and visitors’ coach Jorge Almiron certainly has several tricks up his sleeve from his successful time at Boca Juniors.
A classic win is too risky for me, but I can work with a double chance for my Cerro Porteno Colo Colo tip. I therefore play a double chance X2!
