Premier League, Monday, 15.04.2024
A contrasting Premier League match between Chelsea and Everton is scheduled for next Monday at Stamford Bridge.
The playing philosophy and match plan could hardly be more different in soccer than in this pairing. Chelsea play risk-taking attacking soccer, Everton focus on defense and hit an incredible amount of long balls in a match.
My Chelsea Everton betting tip is strongly influenced by the home side’s recent competitive matches. In the end, I ended up with odds of 2.25 for “Over 3.5 goals” in the game in the Interwetten app
The entertainment value of a match involving the Blues is incomparably high. In the home side’s previous seven competitive matches, both teams have scored at least twice!
On average, Chelsea games this season have contained 3.57 goals per game and over half of their league games (53%) have shown “Over 3.5 goals” on the scoreboard at the final whistle.
Mauricio Pochettino’s players are now unbeaten in seven league games. This form makes them the clear odds-on favorite in soccer betting with maximum odds of 1.70.
Everton won 1-0 against Burnley on the last matchday, reversing a run of 13 Premier League games without a win. For another success, the Toffees will have to overcome odds of between 4.33 and 5.00.
Mauricio Pochettino has encouraged his young squad (average age 23.6) to play risk-taking attacking soccer. The Blues average almost 60 percent possession.
If the home side lose possession, they counter-press more intensively than almost any other club in the Premier League (second-highest pressing intensity according to Soccerment).
This has both advantages and disadvantages. The hosts will have to watch out for the Toffees’ counter-attacks in this match. Chelsea concede 0.14 expected goals per 90 minutes after switching possession (12th).
This is exactly what Everton’s game is designed for. Only Sheffield Wednesday (34.3 percent) place less emphasis on possession than Everton (40.2 percent). On the other hand, the Toffes’ xG value (0.16 xG) after counter-attacks is well above the league average (0.13 via Soccerment).
If this duel continues at a high tempo, goals are only a matter of time. The Blues have scored an average of 5.25 goals per game in their last four home games!
Such an exchange of blows suits the home side much better, as their offense is worlds better (58.2 xG) than the visitors’ attack (46.6 xG).
The Blues have scored “over 2.5 goals” in two of their last three home games. If they manage that again against Everton, the odds of 2.80 with a free bet are not worth mentioning
At the same time, visiting coach Sean Dyche’s plan could work and Everton could counter the Blues several times.
With the exception of West Ham (2.01 m/s), no team in the English top flight chases the ball around the pitch faster than Everton (1.99 m/s). Chelsea often allow themselves simple mistakes and are regularly punished for them (1.7 goals conceded per game).
If Everton find the way into the goal at least twice via their transitional moments and their own standards (15 goals), this Oddset bonus is in good hands with odds of 2.80 for “Everton over 1.5 goals”
What Everton are missing in their squad is a player like Cole Palmer. The Blues’ top scorer (16 goals this season) has scored six goals in the last four league games and has been almost unstoppable for opposing defenses.
With ten goals in the previous eleven league games, Oddset’s odds of 1.80 for “Cole Palmer to score” feel almost too high
In my opinion, the Blues’ error-proneness is too high to go for “Both teams score: No” to go. Conversely, Everton have finished 38 percent of their visiting appearances without scoring.
So I couldn’t blame anyone who, at least in the short term, is looking at odds around 2.25 for “Both teams to score: No”
Matches between the Blues have almost always been accompanied by many goals in the recent past. I’m curious to see whether the different styles of play of Chelsea and Everton will allow the Blues to score at least four goals for the eighth game in a row.
I can definitely imagine it. Everton won the duel 2-0 in the first half of the season. Since then, however, the Blues have improved significantly. Chelsea are currently unbeaten in seven league games.
My Chelsea Everton betting tip is therefore: More than 3.5 goals will be scored
