Premier League Matchday 1, Sunday, 18.08.2024 at 17:30
The champions take the first dance! The ball is finally rolling again in the motherland of soccer as the Premier League gets underway. Of course, Manchester City are under particular scrutiny, and not just because they are the defending champions.
A home game against a fairly easy opponent, perhaps even a promoted team, to kick things off? Think again, the Skyblues have to travel directly to London to face Chelsea FC. A fearful opponent? Not at all, the recent history is clear.
Although the Citizens are aware of their historical advantage, they also know that their opponents want to get back to their old strength and have big plans. And yet, the odds of our bookmakers speak a clear language with an average of 1.80 to 4.20, for example at NEObet.
Have Chelsea strengthened well enough to knock on the door at the top again in 2024/25 or are they stuck in mid-table? Are City the big title favorites and will they win again? What do the new additions have to do with the outcome of this season?
Questions upon questions, which I will now address in detail in my Chelsea Manchester City betting tip. I can’t really imagine a home win, so my tendency is towards “Double chance X2” with goals on both sides!
The prediction of the bookmakers?
Manchester City have won seven of their last nine matches against Chelsea – this fact will certainly be taken into account by the bookies, who are offering average odds of 1.80 for an away win.
On the other hand, the Londoners should not be surprised after the last two years that they are given very little chance of victory in this pairing. If they do manage a three-pointer, the odds would jump to an average of 4.20.
In 2023/24, both games ended without a winner. Chelsea could probably live very well with a draw on Sunday, should it actually come to a draw, the value jumps to 3.80.
Analysis: Chelsea vs Manchester City
The lead was only two points, but there was still time to celebrate – and that was all that mattered in Manchester! Pep Guardiola and his team clinched the next title, once again distancing Arsenal.
An irresistible final spurt was responsible for this, eight wins in a row with 29 goals could not be topped by the Gunners in the end. Those looking for defeats only found them three times anyway
1:2 against Wolverhampton, 0:1 against Arsenal and 0:1 against Aston Villa, three defeats that could have been avoided. Of course, nobody will be surprised to hear that City had the best attack of all the teams with 96 goals.
And that’s despite the fact that Erling Haaland, with 27 goals, was almost restrained by his standards. He will of course be on the hunt again in the new season, but no longer with strike partner Julian Alvaraz.
Quota analysis
If I had to decide on a 1×2 bet, my choice would be the visitors. They have won very often in recent years, and the Blues have yet to find their feet with all their new additions.
I’m actually not really sure how many goals we can expect here at the start of the season. Since ten of the last twelve duels have ended with a maximum of three, I would again bet on “under 3.5 goals” at odds of 1.65.
That automatically leads me to a result bet. Since I’m advocating goals for both teams, only 1:2 comes into question here.
City shaky defensively?
The Argentine world champion has left for Atletico Madrid, so Haaland will now have more responsibility again. Did City also put many millions of euros on the market themselves?
Savinho came from Troyes, otherwise only a few professionals returned from loan. So it seems that the champions are relying on the tried and tested, true to the motto: “Never change a winning team!”
The test matches certainly showed that this principle could work, but at the same time also revealed one or two weaknesses in the defense. For example, they drew 3:2 against Milan and 2:2 against Barcelona
Chelsea build on new arrivals
Interesting: At the beginning of the month, they tested against Chelsea of all teams. City quickly took a 2-0 lead, and after a good hour it was 4-0. The fact that they subsequently conceded two more goals underlines the fact that there is room for improvement defensively.
It is therefore not surprising that the “both teams to score” bet only has odds of just under 1.50. Although… If we take a look at the head-to-head comparison, it doesn’t always look like a spectacle.
Eight of the last ten duels have not featured a “both teams score”, mainly because Manchester have won all seven of their last nine games by a clean sheet
But: The most recent match at Stamford Bridge, played in November 2023, went completely off the rails with a 4-4 draw! Chelsea would probably have little objection to a repeat of that result, as they are the clear underdogs on Sunday.
Sixth place was achieved by the skin of their teeth last season, and it didn’t look like that for a long time. In the final spurt, however, the Blues finally tightened the reins and achieved consistent results.
One defeat from the last 15 games, winning five of the last six – why didn’t it always go like this? Chelsea are certainly mired in mid-table, a fortunate sixth-place finish is not something they want to overpraise in London
Eight times played to nil in 2023/24, so the defense suffered tremendously. Has there already been an improvement in the test matches? Not in the 2:4 against Manchester City.
1:2 against Real Madrid and 1:1 against Inter Milan, but at least the team kept up with two big names again. If the transfer spending is anything to go by, Chelsea should actually be sent the league title.
Spending? Almost 200 million euros! Pedro Neto came from Wolverhampton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall from Leicester and Keeler Filip Jorgensen from Villarreal. But the list is far from over.
Omari Kellyman, Aaron Anselmino, Renato Veiga, Caleb Wiley and Marc Guiu cost a lot more money. The Londoners have strengthened their squad enormously, but are the signings also sufficient in terms of quality?
My tip:
Of course, Manchester City will also be the big title favorites in 2024/25. The Skyblues haven’t made many changes to their strong squad, but have struck me as defensively vulnerable in preparation.
I don’t really know what to expect from Chelsea FC. A number of new players have come to London, but the really big names have not been included. Will that be enough for City?
The visitors are definitely the favorites. As there were a few wobbles during the summer break, I’ve decided to put together the following combination:
Manchester to score on both sides
