Como – RB Leipzig Tip Champions League, Matchday 1 on Thursday, 10.09.2026 at 21:00 CET
A historic evening is about to begin! For my Como RB Leipzig tip, I look at the very first European Cup match in the history of the Lombards. And that directly in the Champions League against an established opponent from the Bundesliga, but staggering at the weekend.
I’m committing myself to a bet here that combines courage and analysis: Win Come & Both teams score. At the bookie above, you will find a high odd of 2.85 in addition to the bet-at-home deposit bonus.
The Italians have not only beaten Napoli on the road, but dominate their games with a lot of possession. RB Leipzig, on the other hand, was defensively vulnerable in the 3-1 defeat in Bremen, which makes this bet very likely and valuable for me.
The rise of “Como 1907”, according to the official signing, is fairytale-like. In the 2018/19 season, the club played in the fourth-tier Serie D. Now the debut in the Champions League awaits, which is reminiscent of the meteoric rise of RB Leipzig itself.
Speaking of which: The Saxons are already starting their eighth CL season, but recently had to sit out a year. The return to the Champions League will be supervised by new coach Martin Demichelis, who succeeded the successful Ole Werner and now has to deliver!
However, the Italians are currently making a much better impression. While Como started the season strongly with seven out of a possible nine points, RB Leipzig suffered a painful defeat at Werder Bremen after the opening win.
Como – RB Leipzig Prediction & Betting Tips
There are also other interesting markets for a Como RB Leipzig tip! Both teams are known for their attacking power, while Leipzig have not kept a clean sheet in 18 international games. A bet on Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.60 therefore seems logical.
If you like it a little safer, you can also consider the home win for Como (without additional conditions), which is traded at 1.90. Cesc Fàbregas’ troops only lost at home to the top teams in the league last season and are extremely self-confident.
Ultimately, Como RB Leipzig betting offers different approaches. However, the combination of Como’s home strength and Leipzig’s defensive vulnerability on the road primarily underpins my preferred tip that the Italians will win and both teams will score.
What you need to know about Como vs. RB Leipzig betting
- Como had the best defence in Serie A in 2025/26 with only 29 goals conceded.
- RB Leipzig have won only one of their last ten Champions League games.
- Our AI tool sees Como with a clear advantage with a 48.2% probability of victory.
- Leipzig have been waiting for a clean sheet for 18 international competitive games.
- Como strikers Diao and Baturina scored four of the seven goals this season.
Como – RB Leipzig: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our AI tool provides a clear trend. The probability of a home win for Como is estimated at an impressive 48.2%, while a Leipzig victory is only 27.7%. This underlines the role of favourites of the supposed outsiders.
In terms of goals, on the other hand, artificial intelligence expects a value of 2.78 goals. This coincides with the Como RB Leipzig odds of the bookmakers, who also assume a high-scoring game and only offer odds of 1.53 for “Over 2.5 goals”.
The analysis of potential goal scorers is also interesting. Although Anastasios Douvikas is expected to start, the bookmakers still consider new signing Moise Kean to be the most likely goalscorer. A goal by the Italian is valued at odds of around 2.15.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Como |
Draw |
Victory RB Leipzig |
| 48.2% |
24.1% |
27.7% |
At Leipzig, you should have Christopher Nkunku on your list. The returnee has already scored in the AC Milan jersey on Lake Como last season. A bet on a goal by Nkunku could be worthwhile at odds of around 3.20.
The data also shows that a goal for Como is very likely. The odds for this are just 1.12. This strengthens my conviction for the tip “Win Como & score both”, as the Saxons’ defence is rarely solid.
In summary, both my (human) analysis and the data from the AI tool point in the same direction: Como are favourites at home, but RBL are also expected to score.
The best odds for Como vs. RB Leipzig
A look at the Como RB Leipzig betting odds reveals an initially surprising picture. The Champions League debutant from Italy goes into the game against the internationally experienced Bundesliga team as the clear favourite. But there are good reasons for this.
Como’s impressive form in Serie A, coupled with the defensive stability of last season, justifies this assessment. The team has already proven in 2026/27 that it can continue to hold its own against big names like Napoli and even dominate them.
On the other side is RB Leipzig, whose international record has been catastrophic recently. Only one win from the last ten games in the Champions League speaks a clear language and makes the Saxons the logical outsider in this duel.
A draw is not out of the question, but the offensive and courageous style of play of both teams is more likely to point to a winner. The form and the home advantage clearly speak for the Lombards, who are hoping for a “Notte magica” (magical night).
Como vs RB Leipzig Match Analysis:
On paper, worlds collide here: The absolute newcomer Como meets the internationally proven RB Leipzig. But the Italians are the favourites, which is mainly due to their outstanding form in Serie A.
With 71 points and only seven defeats in the previous season, Fàbregas’ team has seamlessly continued their performances. The start to the new season with seven out of nine possible points impressively confirms this impression.
The basis of the success was the defence, which was the best in the entire league with only 29 goals conceded. This compactness makes it difficult for any opponent to create clear scoring chances, especially at home at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
RB Leipzig, on the other hand, have often been unlucky offensively. Despite 42 shots in the first two league games, only four goals were scored. Against Bremen, there was a lack of creativity and compelling actions in the penalty area.
This is exactly where Como’s strength lies. The team defends extremely compactly against strong teams and hardly allows any shots in dangerous zones. An away goal will therefore be anything but a foregone conclusion for the Saxons.
In addition, Leipzig’s record in the Champions League is disastrous with eight defeats in the last ten games. These facts make a home win for Como a very realistic scenario, even if it is the first European game.
Como Form Check
Como played the best season in the club’s history and crowned it by qualifying for a European competition for the first time. The direct entry into the Champions League is the reward for an outstanding development.
The team won a strong 20 of 38 league games in the 2025/26 season and underpinned their class with the best defence in Serie A. Only 29 goals conceded is an impressive figure that speaks for defensive stability.
The start of the 2026/27 season shows that this was not a flash in the pan. With seven out of nine points and an away win in Naples, Como has once again underlined its ambitions. They conceded exactly one goal in each game.
The signing of Moise Kean strengthened the offense once again. The Italy international set up a goal on his debut and offers another top-class option in attack.
The head and heart of the team continues to be the creative player Nico Paz. The Argentine already gained Champions League experience with Real Madrid and even won the title in 2024. His class is invaluable to the team.
Meanwhile, the biggest unknown remains the lack of international experience. The team is facing its very first European competitive match. However, the fans at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia will provide loud support in the stands.
RB Leipzig form check
After a year of abstinence, RB Leipzig are back in the Champions League. As third in the Bundesliga, the Saxons secured participation. In the past, they even reached the semi-finals here in 2019/20.
The return to the Champions League was also possible thanks to a strong away record in the previous season. Leipzig won eight of their 17 away games in the Bundesliga, which shows that the team can in principle hold its own on foreign ground.
For the new coach Martin Demichelis it is the debut in the Champions League. His start in the league was mixed: a clear 3-0 home win against Gladbach was followed by a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Werder Bremen.
Although the points haul at the beginning of the season was not optimal, the offensive efforts were right. Leipzig have already recorded 42 shots, but they only led to four goals – efficiency must therefore urgently improve.
Meanwhile, Christopher Nkunku, an important player returned from AC Milan. He knows the stadium in Como and scored there last season for the Rossoneri. His experience could be decisive.
However, RB Leipzig have not exactly covered themselves with glory in the Champions League recently. I therefore see the role of favourites in my forecast clearly with the hosts.
