FA Cup Final, Saturday, 17.05.2025 at 17:30
Wembley is calling! On Saturday, the FA Cup final will take place in England. And I can already reveal one thing: none of the teams currently in the top three of the Premier League will be there.
So, will it be a surprise final? There’s at least one name I definitely didn’t have on my list.
In my Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City prediction, I analyze two teams that have truly earned their place in the final.
Nevertheless, I believe that the winner will ultimately be wearing sky blue, as the Eagles have yet to win the FA Cup.
For City, this is their last chance to secure a title this season. With two rounds remaining in the Premier League, they cannot afford to lose sight of their goal, as the top six places are still up for grabs.
Pep Guardiola’s players are miles ahead of their opponents. In addition, as I will explain in detail in my analysis, Crystal Palace is one of the Citizens’ favorite opponents.
Ultimately, everything points to City winning here in regular time. Will the favorites win 1-0 or 5-0 in the end? Personally, I think both are possible.
The betting providers’ prediction?
Crystal Palace has never won the FA Cup and has only beaten ManCity three times since 2001. There is therefore no doubt that the Eagles are going into this match as underdogs. The odds are 4.60 on average.
A win for the favorites from Manchester, on the other hand, is priced at 1.70. Of course, you can also bet on who will win the cup, regardless of how they do it. Now, 3.10 is only available at 1.38.
Since two of the last four direct encounters ended in a draw, we should also take a look at the odds for a draw. The bookmakers are offering 4.00, in which case we would of course see extra time.
Analysis: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
With no chance of winning the league and eliminated from the Champions League, Manchester City cannot be satisfied with this season. At least there is still a small chance of winning a title: in the FA Cup.
The team has stabilized somewhat in the Premier League, going eight games without a loss. But: 0-0 against Man United, 0-0 against bottom-of-the-table Southampton, a narrow win against Wolverhampton? More was expected.
Pep Guardiola’s players want to somehow get the club into the Champions League again this season, but that goal is still a long way off. There is hardly a sheet of paper between third and seventh place, so the mood is likely to be tense.
Now, however, City will first try to concentrate fully on the cup. After an easy 8-0 win against Salford, they only just managed to beat Leyton Orient 2-1.
Odds analysis
It’s no secret that I’m betting on a win for Guardiola’s team in the 1×2 market. Given that twelve of the Sky Blues’ last 14 wins against Crystal Palace have been by at least two goals, I don’t think a 0-1 HC is unrealistic, with the corresponding odds coming in at 2.85.
City have been disappointing offensively for several months now, with the odd positive “slip-up.” In this respect, you can take a real risk here, with under 2.5 goals offering odds of 2.10.
So what result do we go for? I think a plain 2-0 is a good bet, so it’s unlikely to be a goal fest. This result would give you odds of 9.00 at Betano.
Does City have the nerves to win?
3:1 against Plymouth and 2:1 against Bournemouth, it was a relatively close call. The 2:0 win against Nottingham was also far from a football festival. Now the Citizens are in the final for the third time in a row.
While they won the derby against United 2:1 in 2023, they lost by the same score a year later. The cup has been won twice in the past ten years, so I can’t say it’s an absolute favorite competition.
Since 1986, interestingly enough, there have only been two instances of extra time in the round in which City was eliminated from the FA Cup (or won the cup). So, we’re not in for an exciting match on Saturday?
2-2 and 5-2, the two matches that City and Crystal Palace have played this season, were certainly not boring. The last four direct encounters have produced a whopping 21 goals, which is not insignificant.
Will the Eagles celebrate a first?
Four wins, three draws, one defeat? Looking at the last eight results alone, things could have gone a little better for the Skyblues. There has only been one FA Cup meeting since 1981, with City winning 3-0 in 2017.
Crystal Palace knows, of course, that it is the clear underdog going into this final. After 2016 and 1990, this is the third time the Eagles have reached the final – both times Manchester United destroyed their title dreams in extra time.
And this time? Their path to the final has been brilliant. 1-0 against Stockport, 2-0 against Doncaster, 3-1 against Millwall, 3-0 against Fulham and 3-0 against Aston Villa? The tougher the opponents, the clearer the victories!
The reason I mention this is simple: because the FA Cup final is not being played at Selhurst Park. But those two defeats hurt, one a 5-0 loss to Newcastle, the other a 5-2 defeat to Manchester City.
My Crystal Palace – Manchester City prediction:
Will the 2024/25 season end on a reasonably positive note for Manchester City? After several humiliating defeats in the Premier League and an early exit from the Champions League, there is a lot of pressure on the team this weekend. Fortunately, Crystal Palace is not the strongest opponent in terms of name.
The Eagles have been very convincing in the competition so far, and they are not performing that badly in the league at the moment. However, they have no experience of triumph in the FA Cup.
All in all, I expect Pep Guardiola’s stars to pull themselves together on Saturday to bring home at least one title. Therefore, I think it is likely that 90 minutes will be enough to confirm the following tip:
ManCity wins against Crystal Palace!
