SV Darmstadt 98 – Sport-Club Freiburg betting tip
SV Darmstadt 98 will need more than a medium-sized miracle if they are to avoid relegation from the Bundesliga after all. The chances of this happening are currently almost zero.
Freiburg visit Bölle on Sunday and a home win is the only way for the Lilies to keep their minimal chances of securing a relegation place, which nobody really believes they can achieve.
In purely mathematical terms, however, it is still possible and as long as that is the case, you can be sure that the Hessians will fight for it
The bookmakers don’t think they can win the treble, though. I would also go for a goal bet here, as the two worst defenses of the second half of the season will be facing each other.
In this respect, I have my eye on the combination “Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals”, which I also like to play at Oddset at odds of 1.83.
If you want to play the tip, you should definitely take a look at the Oddset bonus beforehand. Maybe one of you will be eligible for it.
But now let’s get into the Darmstadt Freiburg prediction
The prediction of the betting providers?
As you can see from the odds distribution of the bookmakers, you can quadruple your stake with a successful bet on Darmstadt.
Even the “double chance 1X” still yields values of just under the 2.00 mark and is therefore quoted higher than bets on an away win.
The Darmstadt Freiburg odds for the popular goal bets “Both teams to score” and “Over 2.5 goals” are between 1.60 and 1.65 on their own, with the higher odds for betting on at least three goals
Analysis: Darmstadt vs Freiburg
It was the game that could have changed everything. But instead, Darmstadt have one and a half legs in Bundesliga 2 after the 4-0 defeat in Mainz.
With a win, the Lilies would have reduced the gap to the relegation places to five points. However, they now find themselves nine points behind 16th place and almost impossible to catch up.
In Mainz, the Hessians remained winless for the 21st Bundesliga match in a row. They have lost 14 of these last 21 games (7U). With just 14 points after 28 matchdays, they have had the worst season in their Bundesliga history.
In fact, only one team has been worse since the introduction of the three-point rule: Schalke had just 13 points after 28 rounds four years ago.
If Darmstadt remain winless on Sunday, they would be the team with the second-longest winless streak in Bundesliga history. Only Tasmania Berlin (31 games in the 1965/1966 season) have gone longer without a win.
The 71 goals conceded are also historic: not only are they a personal negative record for the Lilies. Since the beginning of the 1990s, only Schalke conceded as many goals in the first 28 games of a Bundesliga season four years ago.
Darmstadt have conceded at least twice in each of the last five matchdays. In the last two games at home, eleven goals were conceded in the two defeats against Augsburg (0:6) and Bayern (2:5).
Looking further back, the Hessians have lost seven of their last eight games at home to Böllenfalltor – most recently four in a row.
Analysis of odds
The odds distribution may seem justified given Darmstadt’s results. And yet: I think at least one Lilies point is not unlikely.
For me at least, odds of up to 1.98 for the “double chance 1X” have value. Betano, among others, offers these odds. But that’s not the only thing the bookie has on offer.
New customers receive a €20.00 free bet via the Betano bonus code after verification as well as 100% on their first deposit and thus free credit, which could be used for the double chance bet, for example.
Also interesting are the odds for bets on “Over 3.5 goals”, which are in the region of 2.50. Since the weakest defenses of the second half of the season will face each other here, you can also consider this option
SVD and SCF the shooting galleries of the second half of the season
Freiburg went down 4-1 at home to RB Leipzig last weekend. The score was already 0:3 at half-time.
That was the 23rd to 26th goals conceded by Sport-Club in the second half of the season, compared to 26 for SCF in the entire first half. Darmstadt conceded one more goal in the second half of the season.
When using a free bet without deposit, betting on at least four goals is therefore a good alternative. In 12 Freiburg and 14 Darmstadt games (out of 28) there were more than three goals to be seen.
The large number of goals conceded meant that Freiburg only won two of their last ten Bundesliga games and lost six of the remaining eight. There had also been six defeats in the entire first half of the season
Sport-Club still wants to go to Europe
However, both three-pointers came away from home and also in the last two games on the opponent’s pitch, after Sport-Club had previously gone home without points four times in a row.
The last time SCF won three away games in a row was over two years ago. The Breisgau club now want to repeat that to maintain their chances of reaching Europe in the coming season.
Assuming that 7th place will still be enough for the Conference League at the end of the season, it is currently only the poor goal difference of -12 that is preventing this 7th place.
Freiburg are currently only in 9th place behind Augsburg and Hoffenheim, who have the same number of points. But: Even 6th place, six points behind, is certainly not yet completely written off
The two clubs have only met once before in a Bundesliga clash at the Bölle. Darmstadt won 3:0 at home in the 2016/2017 season.
The Lilies also won the last home clash with Sport-Club before that: on 28 November 2001, over 22 years ago, they beat SCF 3-1 on penalties in the 2nd round of the DFB Cup
The last really relevant encounter, however, was the first leg, when the Hessians took a point from Breisgau (1:1).
As Freiburg are the team with the third-most away defeats (8 in 14 away games), SVD could also be in with a chance in the second leg
My Darmstadt Freiburg tip:
The Lilies have only kept a clean sheet once in the last 17 matchdays. Sport-Club have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last eleven Bundesliga games.
The two clubs also have the weakest defenses in the second half of the season, conceding 27 and 26 goals respectively. I therefore expect a high-scoring match in which both teams will get on the scoreboard.
Therefore, my Darmstadt Freiburg betting tip is: Both teams score & Over 2.5 goals
